Job Discussion Forums

[blateson]

I'd like to reply to this topic. I don't know who the op VietExpat2008 is, I haven't seen his posting history but for this one here and now, I think he has put up a highly informative article of information here, almost too good as I know I would not have been able to keep my cool and state only the facts as well as he did.

I have been coming onto this website for what seems like years now, often feeling like I am bashing my head against a wall. I have continually stated how I really felt about Vietnam and the Vietnamese, who they really are and the way they do business, only to receive replies that make Vietnam out to be some little secret alcove in a lovely garden. I have always seen what motivates the Vietnamese and the power grabs they are plotting to lunge at.

Intel has built a $1 Billion+ chip plant; Taiwan is reported in the latest Newsweek article as planning to invest "billions" into Vietnam in the next year. Mark my words! Outsiders see the Vietnamese smiles and sign the contracts and think they've secured good deals, only to find the VNs will close in around you and lock you out once they can. The country itself is a mess but they don't hesitate to clean things up just enough to impress you, later to throw tons of paperwork and authoritarianism and rules when they see fit. Also we notice that in their drive to 'modernize' their country, who they target first! I have never been drunken and fooled by the Vietnamese, and I won't be either, yet the Vietnamese know that newcomers will most often be naive.

[londo]

Duplicity, dishonesty, greed, superficiality, extreme nationalism, racism etc are traits found in most, if not all Asian countries.....but not only Asian countries, they are also to be found in Europe and the States. We know it's not easy and once we understand just how difficult, we have the choice of staying and working with these problems knowing that other benefits/attractions outweigh them. If not, well, what's the point hanging around and bitching......go home. The largest, single obstacle to future development in VN (and very different to the Chinese, who the VN resemble and emulate) is the lack of vision or consideration for the future. They live and earn for the present, next quarter at the most. They will only change tack when they realise they are losing. This bloody-mindedness helped them defeat 3 great world powers in battle but it's starting to hurt their economic battle, no chinese pragmatism here. Many foreigners, and I repeat not only TEFLers, are going home. My neighbours group here in PMH is emptying by the day....some 40% are planning to relocate by July (not all for visa/WP issues - some due to company cutbacks at home, in Korea, Japan, Europe), the place is emptying and rents are dropping through the floor. When VN lose these people, the big earners, the decision makers, the investors, when the property bubble finally bursts, when VN companies fail, they are going to wake up and scream. But they won't be able to blame the foreigners for once, there'll be less of us. Who will they blame............?

[haller_79]

[jb0072009]

[Oneonta]

[vietexpat2008]

I don't want to seem quite so down on Vietnam. Like any other country, it is a complex place, and the government is not all of one mind.

I think the reasons for the crackdown are mostly to defend the local labor market, with a dash of "law and order" seasoning in the mix. This is just my expat's best educated guess. I could be missing the reasons entirely.

I agree with Londo that the economic contraction is going to send some foreigners home. It would also send some foreigners here to teach, but Vietnam is closing the door on that, so we should see a net outflow of foreigners, particularly starting in July if they carry out their immigration plans in full.

I also generally agree with the reasons people are putting forth on general Vietnamese poverty. There is a very strong "live for today" attitude that causes many of them to burn bridges and just grab for the cash right now, which always hurts their long term interest. They also value family and personal loyalties far above law, honesty and honor, which is why you'll get taken here again, and again, and again until you finally wise up and learn to defend yourself.

Vietnam is a "hard" destination, but it is not without its charms and financial opportunities. Unfortunately, a lot of foreigners come here and are exposed to Vietnam's harsher realities very quickly, so they don't stay. Driving out the tougher foreigners who choose to make a life here is a big mistake for Vietnam because they will not return, and they will not be replaced with new foreigners quickly. Vietnam needs engagement with the world, not isolation.

Londo, where do you get your 40% relocating number? Is that just a head count of your neighbors personally, or some media statistic? If that's true, that's bigger than I had suspected, especially of established, non-teaching foreigners.

A quick comment on the property bubble--I don't know what to think of it. I think it is probably not supported with large amounts of bank capital, and it is fueled by strange Vietnamese attitudes towards property, and the illiquidity of the housing market here. A lot of Vietnamese would rather die than sell their house, because it is the one thing in their life they can keep no matter how hard times get. That's why you have people living in crumbling houses along Pasteur or other rich commercial parts of the city, selling coffee and junk out on the sidewalk.

In America, the normal value of a house is around 200 times monthly rent, and when the number strays too far from that ratio, the housing market is overpriced. In Saigon, it seems to be around 600 times monthly rent. I don't know if this is a bubble, or a perpetually overpriced environment caused by market distortions resulting from government policy. It is hard to invest in anything but gold, a business, or your house, so the limited choices may be propping up the market.

[londo]

I agree with most all you wrote vietexpat 2008. The 40% comes from our rather twee expat neighbour's group which is a fairly broad group of nationalities both 'foreign' and VK. It has to be said that these people are usually on corporate contracts so there is always a healthy turnover particularly around the beginning and mid points of the year.

That said the number leaving is the highest it has ever been and many are not being replaced. Estate agents around here are just not seeing companies renewing contracts and many are closing their doors.

Which brings me to the property bubble...and bubble there most definitely is. we have to understand, however, the traditional desire for a house and the rampant speculation there has been in the last five years. The new middle classes will beg, borrow or steal to buy their traditional shop house in D5, D10 et al and whilst these homes are certainly over-valued compared to income, I believe it is manageable as most debt is not 'institutional' (i.e. mortgaged) and comes from liquidity sometimes hidden for 30-40 years or contributed by VK relatives.

Where the big problem lies, in my opinion, is the large developments to be found in many parts of HCMC and epitomized by my neck of the woods, PMH. Since WTO, the government has been sounding the horn of the wealth to come, the foreigners who would be flocking here and the opportunities for foreign developers to make a healthy profit.

The gullible have borrrowed from banks for apartments (and not traditional houses which most VN want) believing all foreigners and foreign companies would be willing to pay $2,000 a month for an apartment, in sense of style, size and quality, worth no more than $100,000. The developers, being greedy, vastly inflated stock (numbers of units) and totally misjudged local tastes by investing heavily in communal space rather than the private space so desired by most VN.

Did they really believe there would be upto 100,000 foreigners living in D7 alone?

With the expectation of such high rents, prices rose beyond any sense of commercial logic ($10,000,000 for a 4 bed house, no pool or garden in My Khanh, for example).

Take a drive around PMH and you can see that no more than 60% of stock is occupied, rent for that $2,000 is now only $800 some are going for as low as $300, people aren't selling, they can't and they don't want to, it would be an end to a dream (anyone remember the SE crash of a few years ago, they didn't want to believe that either) but they are now having a problem paying their mortgages.

PMH is not a small enclave but along with D2, D6 makes up about 50% of new build stock in the last 2 -3 years. I'd give it another 18 months before we see a serious crisis...this I believe is why the Government has recently insisted on increased charter capital for banks and why HSBC and ANZ (not exposed) are rubbing their hands in glee.

[isabel]

Most of what is being said here about Vietnam can be said about the Gulf countries. There are efforts all over to nationalize work forces and stem immigration.

Most Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, etc.) are trying hard to nationalize the economies. Nationals are being educated as fast as possible to assume all of the professional positions. A lot is being invested in the effort to get rid of the foreign work forces.

So, if there is a drive to nationalize the workforce, what is wrong with that? This is happening everywhere. Look at the anti-immigration sentiment in the US and across Europe. Don't you think you would be sent packing from those places if your documents were not in the order they require?

Why should anyone be shocked if the government is trying to protect jobs of locals? That is their job, actually.

And I get the impression that people just don't know about the bad actors amongst us who create all sorts of havoc in foreign countries, thinking the laws don't apply to them, and not believing that they will be prosecuted or at least expelled from the country. From some of the behavior I have seen in my years teaching in Asia and the ME, I would hope that governments would be more vigilant in checking people's backgrounds. We do all know someone with degrees and credentials from Kho San Road, don't we?

That being said, and being about to embark on the adventure that is getting legalized for Vietnam, I hope the process isn't too much of a nightmare. I'm starting early and hoping for the best, but am fairly sure that is not what I will be getting. We all pay a price for the frauds and bad actors amongst us- and when I have to go through the hurdles, I will try to remember the blame them for the hassles.

[sigmoid]

This article is from April but still seems relevant:

Work permit labyrinth frustrates expats
Last updated: 4/10/2010 11:00

With zero guidance, foreigners lost in bureaucratic maze may have to leave the country

Full article:
http://www.thanhniennews.com/2010/Pages/20100410163137.aspx

Some excerpts:

[londo]

Agree Isabel, there are too many fly-by-nights and losers who frankly should just go away - no tears for them and solar strength, sorry I used 'joined-up' writing - you must have made good progress with your reading lists at university - I'll write in big letters, double spaced just for you next time, didn't realise forums were only for SMS kids, I'll learn.

Thank God for 'Edit' and give an old man a break - we used quills and ink wells at school - I kid you not.

[CThomas]

[londo]

CThomas, it gets worse. In the space of 6 months we have heard,

1. copies were ok
2. originals needed
3. originals notarized by your embassy here
4. originals notarized by your gov and vn embassy there
5. Only Americans need do this(?)
6. everyone has to have triple notarization there, gov/vn embassy and then again here.

This is why trying it yourself or for a small company it is practically impossible but at least a (dis)reputable lawyer with experience probably knows what his personal contact wants (or can accept).

[razorhideki]

I've never taught in VN. But I do have experience in E. Asia & it seems to me that even though VN might be the extreme example of immigration work permit insanity, this BS is going on all over E. Asia. In the last 3 yrs. or so, it has gone right off the rails(see the Korea, Japan forums, for example).

The irony of this is that these countries might be getting more riff-raff than ever before. The qualified & the "normal" are getting to the point where they're saying "To hell with this BS, I'll stay home!"

[sigmoid]

[londo]

I agree Sigmoid, I think we will see more mid-level 'language centres ' following ILA's model and employing young, inexperienced graduates who normally leave after 1-2 years. Anyone with qualifications and experience is not likely to want to work for these places, though I see their attraction as a 'first' post.

I also think the upper-level schools and institutes (Apollo, RMIT et al) will be employing more experienced people as they look at the corporate market. These guys can and will get people WPs and I think they will be prepared to pay 'more for more' in the future

The greater part of the 'market' however, as you know, is made up of badly-run, often not registered, language mills.....they are like rabbits caught in the headlights, in complete denial....what are these 'centres' going to do?

They often have the 'closest' relationships with powers-that-be, maybe we'll see some pressure to roll back the impositions, or relaxation of controls once they see thay can't get anyone with qualifications and the back-packers who want to teach for three months will never be enough to fill all positions (who knows - maybe a few hundred at any given time?)