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Pitarou · Joined: 16 Nov 2009 Posts: 1116 Location: Narita, Japan

I don't think I've seen this document mentioned on the forum before. It's an Excel spreadsheet published by the Ministry for Economy, Trade and Industry with statistics about the eikaiwa industry. It contains monthly figures for revenue, number of teachers, number of schools and so on.

http://www.meti.go.jp/statistics/tyo/tokusabido/result/result_1/xls/hv15603j.xls

This graph summarises the statistics most likely to be of interest to this forum (sorry, but I can't embed the image directly, so you'll have to click on the link):

https://spreadsheets.google.com/oimg?key=0App-sh23KqGodEpJTExEREZQSXdZTGVlTGpvMVJOTVE&oid=17&zx=dkfkps1mm8kh

The green line is an aggregate of the other data. It's the 12-month moving average of revenue divided by the 12-month moving average of teacher numbers, where a part-time teacher is counted as half of a full time teacher.

The figures tell the story of Nova's bankruptcy. When Nova folds, in 2007, the number of teachers plummets and much of the seasonal volatility in revenue vanishes. There is some loss in revenue, but the average revenue per teacher rises.

The other story is that of a slow post-Nova decline, but please note that the revenue figures are not adjusted for deflation.

Can anyone explain the jump in part-time teacher numbers in January 2006?

CLARIFICATION I made the graph, using Google spreadsheets and the data from the spreadsheet.

Glenski · Joined: 15 Jan 2003 Posts: 12844 Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN

Pitarou · Joined: 16 Nov 2009 Posts: 1116 Location: Narita, Japan

Glenski · Joined: 15 Jan 2003 Posts: 12844 Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN

Monthly revenue figures? So, on an average each eikaiwa brings in 1 million yen per month? I would really like to see a breakdown on that.

Yes, you posted a link to the Excel data, but where did you get that graph? I would think it would have come with some additional text to describe it. Was there another more "homepage-like" link?

Pitarou · Joined: 16 Nov 2009 Posts: 1116 Location: Narita, Japan

TokyoLiz · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Posts: 1548 Location: Tokyo, Japan

Glenski, Pitarou made the graph. Much like you, i had assumed the graph was something s/he had found the 'Net. Now we've learned about another tool to display information. We learn something new every day
Cool

Glenski · Joined: 15 Jan 2003 Posts: 12844 Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN

TokyoLiz is right, Pitarou. I thought the graph came from METI somehow. Sorry for the confusion.

Pitarou · Joined: 16 Nov 2009 Posts: 1116 Location: Narita, Japan

I've added a note of clarification to the original post.

To reiterate, the green line shows monthly revenue per teacher calculated from 12 month moving averages. I used the 12 month moving average of revenue to smooth out the seasonal fluctuations. I used the 12 month moving average of teacher numbers so that we are dividing like by like.

I hope that's clear.

Glenski · Joined: 15 Jan 2003 Posts: 12844 Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN

rtm · Joined: 13 Apr 2007 Posts: 1003 Location: US

Glenski · Joined: 15 Jan 2003 Posts: 12844 Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN

If that's so, rtm, then I don't see the point in METI even collecting such info because one school might have a dozen teachers, while another school might have only one. The per-teacher revenue would be too broad to mean anything in an average.

TokyoLiz · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Posts: 1548 Location: Tokyo, Japan

rtm wrote

Glenski · Joined: 15 Jan 2003 Posts: 12844 Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN

With just a rough look, it appears to be the former.

Again, I don't think you can do that and make certain statements.

Pitarou · Joined: 16 Nov 2009 Posts: 1116 Location: Narita, Japan

The yellow line is the pie. Every time someone opens their wallet at an eikaiwa and the METI gets to hear of it, they add to the pie for that month.

The red and blue lines tell you how many teachers the METI is aware of who are in line for a share of that month's pie. I assume that full-time teachers get a full slice, and part-time teachers get half-a-slice. The green line tells you how big that slice is.

Of course, the teachers don't keep the full slice: some of it goes to the school receptionist; some of it goes to the landlord; some of it goes to management; some of it goes on marketing; some if it is spent on (gasp!) training and materials and so on. They probably see only 1/4 to 1/3 of the pie in their pay packet. Nonetheless, all things being equal, as that slice shrinks life gets harder for the humble eikaiwa drone.

You may have noticed that, before Nova's collapse, the yellow pie shrunk and grew like an accordion. You may also be wondering why the green slice didn't do the same. The answer is that when I wave my magic statistical wand and cast a spell called 12 Month Moving Average the seasonal fluctuations evaporate and the green line becomes nice and smooth.

I've now spent about 10 times longer explaining the graph than I did making it.

timothypfox · Joined: 20 Feb 2008 Posts: 492

And, I'll sign up for an MBA course tonight to develop an explanation of your explanation. Laughing