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Prof.Gringo
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2236
Location: Dang Cong San Viet Nam Quang Vinh Muon Nam!
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 Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 4:49 pm Post subject: Mexico vs Iraq! |
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How does the drug war in Mexico compare with the insurgency in Iraq?
Just take a look:
"The killings reached their highest level in 2010, jumping by almost 60 percent to 15,273 deaths from 9,616 the previous year."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110113/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_drug_war_mexico
"According to an AFP tally based on figures from the three ministries released over the course of 2010, a total of 3,605 Iraqi civilians, police and army personnel were killed last year -- 124 more than the 3,481 who were killed in 2009."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110101/wl_mideast_afp/iraqunresttoll
Looks like Iraq is safer than Mexico.
The trend is that Iraq has been reducing it's violence and in Mexico, it's on the rise. |
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TeresaLopez
Joined: 18 Apr 2010
Posts: 601
Location: Mexico City
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Prof.Gringo
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2236
Location: Dang Cong San Viet Nam Quang Vinh Muon Nam!
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| Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 9:11 pm Post subject: |
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I am all about fair and balanced.
But the numbers speak for themselves.
Far more dead in Mexico in 2010 than in Iraq. |
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LH123
Joined: 13 Jun 2010
Posts: 61
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| Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 9:25 pm Post subject: |
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The figures speak for themselves, assuming they are accurate (and there is no reason to doubt they are).
And yet, Iraq seems to be more on people's consciences than Mexico does. I suspect that this is because the situation in Iraq is much juicier, geopolitically speaking, than that of Mexico - or, at least, it is perceived to be.
Does this mean, though, that Iraq is "safer" than Mexico? There are more factors at work determining a country's safety (as a foreign visitor, presumably) than tallying up how many murders there are in each place. |
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Prof.Gringo
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2236
Location: Dang Cong San Viet Nam Quang Vinh Muon Nam!
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| Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 9:44 pm Post subject: |
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| LH123 wrote: |
The figures speak for themselves, assuming they are accurate (and there is no reason to doubt they are).
And yet, Iraq seems to be more on people's consciences than Mexico does. I suspect that this is because the situation in Iraq is much juicier, geopolitically speaking, than that of Mexico - or, at least, it is perceived to be.
Does this mean, though, that Iraq is "safer" than Mexico? There are more factors at work determining a country's safety (as a foreign visitor, presumably) than tallying up how many murders there are in each place. |
Thanks for the post. Mexico has a well developed tourism industry and there are monetary interests at work to try and keep that going. Same goes for EFL. There is a need for a constant influx of native-speaker newbies for Mexico but the wages are simply not worth it. Mexico is NOT safe right now.
I think that Mexico can still go either way, but it seems to be going downhill. I wonder how long the cartels will allow themselves to be attacked before they unite and try to actually topple the Mexican govt.? |
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LH123
Joined: 13 Jun 2010
Posts: 61
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| Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 9:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| I wonder how long the cartels will allow themselves to be attacked before they unite and try to actually topple the Mexican govt.? |
Much as (almost) happened in Colombia a few years back?
I suspect that the United States would be keen to avoid that. Not out of any moral or humanitarian concern, rather as a result of it preferring a politically stable neighbour.
I'm with The Economist on this one, the only real solution to this issue would be the legalisation of drugs (which itself is far from a panacea, admittedly). But, that is such a distant possibility that even mentioning it is quite academic.
I'd tentatively predict that, as happened with Colombia a few years ago, the United States will begin flexing its muscles militarily in Mexico to a far greater extent, for better or worse. |
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Guy Courchesne
Joined: 10 Mar 2003
Posts: 9650
Location: Mexico City
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| Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 10:47 pm Post subject: |
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Mexico would win, hands down. Are we talking football? 
| Quote: |
| I'm with The Economist on this one, the only real solution to this issue would be the legalisation of drugs (which itself is far from a panacea, admittedly). But, that is such a distant possibility that even mentioning it is quite academic. |
This has come up in the media here in Mexico from time to time and both the people and government come out strongly against it. Mexican president Calderon had some strong words when California's drug legalization proposal was up late last year. The argument here was that if Mexico is doing so much to clamp down on cartels, legalization mocks the effort.
| Quote: |
| I'd tentatively predict that, as happened with Colombia a few years ago, the United States will begin flexing its muscles militarily in Mexico to a far greater extent, for better or worse. |
Very tough sell here in Mexico...I can't see it happening beyond bilateral agreements that already exist such as Plan Merida involving training and equipment. Colombia faced an organized army that fights an ideological war and is backed by other countries...very political. Mexico faces cartels that fight each other and have no political ideology or state sponsors...no goal beyond moving drugs.
Tough to compare Iraq and Mexico on safety I think. Safe for whom is a starter question. Iraq's struggles are religious, political and subject to a lot of outside interference (Iran, Al-Qaeda, the West). Violence there is a bomb going off in a marketplace, or a mosque targeting innocents. Mexico's violence is more specific to drug cartel members, with innocents not targeted (though sometimes getting caught in the crossfire).
You can compare both countries on one factor easily though...both have regions of violence and regions of safety. I remember seeing ads for EFL jobs in Mosul and Kirkuk as early as summer 2003 before they even found Saddam, and those areas have been relatively safe all through the war. Baghdad and a few other locations have seen the brunt of random and sectarian violence. Mexico is similar, with some southern and coastal areas registering murders in the single digits for a year. You can track nearly all of the drug cartel violence to just 3 border states (of 31 states total).
Nice...something you learn when you live in Mexico City for a time but from outside, some ideas persist. |
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TeresaLopez
Joined: 18 Apr 2010
Posts: 601
Location: Mexico City
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| Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 11:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Prof.Gringo wrote: |
Mexico is NOT safe right now.
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How can you state that a whole country is not safe? So Chihuahua is no different from a small town in Zacatecas, which had only 10 drug related murders in the whole state last year. Or small towns all over Mexico who have one or two murders a DECADE?? That isn�t safe?
Last edited by TeresaLopez on Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:32 am; edited 1 time in total |
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