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2buckets
Joined: 14 Dec 2010
Posts: 515
Location: Middle East
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 Posted: Thu Feb 24, 2011 4:34 pm Post subject: |
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Language note:
"bedoon" means "without" I guess without nationality
as opposed to Bedouin, tribal groups in greater Arabia. |
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veiledsentiments
Joined: 20 Feb 2003
Posts: 17644
Location: USA
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| Posted: Thu Feb 24, 2011 4:39 pm Post subject: |
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| sheikh yer money-maker wrote: |
| Inferences, my dear, inferences. |
No... I see no inference there. S/he corrected the inaccuracies about the other Gulf countries.
So... 2 buckets... have you ever heard of "large numbers of bedoon" in the UAE? I only heard it discussed... a lot... in Kuwait.
VS |
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Bebsi
Joined: 07 Feb 2005
Posts: 958
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| Posted: Thu Feb 24, 2011 7:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| If the Shia in Bahrain succeed in bringing in anything major, there could be "issues" with the large population of unhappy Shia in Saudi. |
It is highly unlikely that the Bahrain protests will be emulated in Saudi. The Shia make up about 70% of the population on the tiny island, whereas they are only 15% of the Saudi population. That makes them a minority there.
There is, by all accounts, considerable discrimination against them in terms of jobs, education etc, and of course this is likely to cause ongoing problems.
However, there is a big difference between 15% and 70%. In Bahrain, this is enough to cause the government a lot of worry. I would reiterate my earlier point, and Johnslat's: people usually revolt when they are hungry. The problems of the Bahraini Shia amount to a significant inequality of wealth. That is closer in magnitude to what brought down Mubarak and Ben Ali, and probably Ghadaffi. Even then, I don't believe it is likely to bring down the Manama government as such.
While the problems experienced by the Saudi Shia are also serious, and are likely to result in considerable protests from them, opposition on the scale of Bahrain is extremely unlikely, simply on the basis of numbers.
There are other issues, of course, such as democracy, human rights and the quality of social services. They have been there a long time. Now, with the protests in the Arab world making big headlines, people are suddenly less afraid to discuss these matters in public. These are also issues which are not by any means unheard of in the west, where they also prompt protests.
Indeed, it is very likely that there will be more and louder voices in the Saudi media demanding reform from now on, and there may even be protests in the streets of Riyadh as people campaign on previously taboo issues such as gender equality, greater access to decision making, more access to education and unemployment of natives.
Some of the claimed reforms will take place pretty soon. Other will take longer. Some may never happen.
But let's not confuse 'reform' with 'revolt'. They are two very different things. And a revolt is something, I believe, that is extremely unlikely to take place anywhere in the Gulf, much less Saudi Arabia. |
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Dedicated
Joined: 18 May 2007
Posts: 972
Location: UK
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| Posted: Thu Feb 24, 2011 8:56 pm Post subject: |
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I'm not a gambling man, and I was making no inferences. I did not mention Saudi Arabia as I had no information about it.
However, don't forget that 1,000 in Kuwait out of a total population of 3.5 million (of whom about 34% are Kuwaitis) protested. In Tahrir Square, there were about 300,000 out of a total population of about 80 million.
I'm not a mathematician, but doesn't that say something? |
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johnslat
Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
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| Posted: Thu Feb 24, 2011 9:33 pm Post subject: |
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Dear Dedicated,
Sorry for making the improper inference. I guess the fact that you were posting on the Saudi forum rather than, say, the Kuwait forum or the Bahrain forum, might have misled me.
Regards,
John |
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RUBALKHALI
Joined: 10 Sep 2009
Posts: 71
Location: DESERTSTORM
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| Posted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 6:56 am Post subject: |
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SAUDI UNREST?
I believe there are many reasons for future unrest in the KSA:
1. The ongoing revolutions in the Arab world could inspire people to demand greater democracy.
2. THE LACK OF BASIC FREEDOMS AS GUARANTEED UNDER THE UN CHARTER OF RIGHTS AND FREEDOMS.
3. Lack of the equality and freedom for women.
4. Elite rich class unhappy about lack of economic freedom and with the Saud monopoly.
5. The Shiite minority have many long standing grievances.
6. The Houthie conflict of a couple years back could flare up again.
7. Many discontent middle class Saudis are unhappy with low salaries, high cost of living, lack of democratic process and resentment towards the greediness of the Saud family.
8. Unexplained disappearances of Billions of dollars from the Saudi government budgets.
9. Ridiculous middle age subservient slavery government policies towards foreign workers!!
10. Disregard for international law and human rights...i.e. holding passports.
11. Thousands of political prisoners held in secret underground prisons!
12. CORRUPTION TO THE POWER OF n.
and the list is long.
RUBALKHALI |
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Bebsi
Joined: 07 Feb 2005
Posts: 958
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| Posted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 10:36 am Post subject: |
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Rubalkhali,
You astound me. Are these things you list really issues in KSA?
No. 9 will definitely result in all the Bangladeshis taking to the streets, to demand western-level salaries. Sure...and the Saudi parliament will convene for the first time next week, after which they will hit the night spots.
No. 10, now that's a major one that gets most westerners, and I will be watching BBC and CNN for news of the westerners' protest. I bet the authorities are really quaking now.
Seriously, there are indeed issues, some of them more serious than others.
I would say 7 and 8 are probably the items that are most pressing, and of greatest concern to middle class Saudis. These are issues that the government will indeed have to tackle soon, and I strongly suspect they know it. Some of them, I believe, are already being addressed, but much more needs to be done.
I don't think anyone here on this forum is disputing that there are serious matters to be addressed in Saudi Arabia. What people seem to be disagreeing on is what is likely to happen in the kingdom over the coming months or years.
We are very likely to see more protests and to hear louder voices doing so, especially over employment, social services, mismanagement of public funds, and democratic participation. Some reforms will be granted, some not. I'm not a gambling man, but if I were, my money would be on the government hanging in there, and staving off any real trouble by granting enough reform to let off the steam.
You yourself said it: among those hardest hit are the rich business class (I would say, the upper-middle-class would be a more accurate description), and even more so, the broad middle-class, which is now a substantial part of Saudi society, and is also the most disenchanted of all social strata. Revolts tend to be brought about by the poor, whereas the better off tend to stick with peaceful reform.
As for expats, I think anyone who is unhappy will be given the forum of the departure lounge to voice their protest.
They will even be given their passports!
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2buckets
Joined: 14 Dec 2010
Posts: 515
Location: Middle East
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| Posted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 4:42 pm Post subject: |
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VS.
No, I haven't heard much about "bedoon" in the UAE or Saudi in the political sense..
I often use the term "bedoon" in grammar lessons as in: after (badra) do, does, the modals etc, verbs are bedoon s, es, ing, ed, etc. |
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veiledsentiments
Joined: 20 Feb 2003
Posts: 17644
Location: USA
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| Posted: Sat Feb 26, 2011 1:22 am Post subject: |
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| 2buckets wrote: |
VS.
No, I haven't heard much about "bedoon" in the UAE or Saudi in the political sense..
I often use the term "bedoon" in grammar lessons as in: after (badra) do, does, the modals etc, verbs are bedoon s, es, ing, ed, etc. |
Thanks... I'm beginning to suspect that the person who wrote that article had the UAE and Kuwait confused...
Please excuse my digression all.
VS |
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Den of Earth
Joined: 04 Feb 2011
Posts: 9
Location: Riyadh
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| Posted: Sun Feb 27, 2011 1:49 am Post subject: |
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That is a pretty good list Rube. I would add the bad feeling in Jeddah
related to ongoing flooding. |
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Bebsi
Joined: 07 Feb 2005
Posts: 958
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| Posted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 7:46 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
However, don't forget that 1,000 in Kuwait out of a total population of 3.5 million (of whom about 34% are Kuwaitis) protested. In Tahrir Square, there were about 300,000 out of a total population of about 80 million.
I'm not a mathematician, but doesn't that say something? |
Well, what it says is that you're definitely not a mathematician 
In Kuwait (assuming about 1m native Kuwaitis), one in a thousand.
In Egypt, roughly one in 270. Thus, a much bigger proportion.
Anyway, we cannot talk in percentages of population when we are assessing the impact of a protest, only the size of the protest relative to the area in which it takes place, because that is what creates the visual impact.
A crowd of 300,000 even in a large square such as Tahrir, makes for great TV, and has a huge visual impact. A crowd of 1,000, on the other hand, doesn't quite make the same impression. Not outdoors, anyway. Maybe in a hall, hotel lobby etc, or even in a very narrow outdoor area, 1,000 people would constitute a bigger crowd, but generally speaking, 300,00 makes for a far more memorable image than one thousand.
There could very well have been millions in Tahrir square, but for the limitations of physical space. Remember, in Egypt generally, the anti-government movement numbered millions. |
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