Job Discussion Forums

[gmat]

Just curious as to why there have been no reports from Beijing teachers regarding the situation there.

It is a fact that students of some universities have been sent home for "at least" a one month holiday.

It is a fact that university students have died in the capital.

Why aren't teachers there giving us updates on what is going on in their uni or other schools?

I know earlier some of the posters had been downplaying the situation in BJ and they are looking a little foolish now. But what about other reports?

[Egas]

I work at Beijing International school, and there have been zealous processes in place, most of which are unnecessary, but it helps keep the parents happy. SARS is not a significant problem for school aged students. Very, very few children have contracted the disease. Even for the general population you are about 200 times as likely to die in a car accident in China as die from SARS, based on its extent today. I saw two serious car accidents on the way to work today, but didn't meet anyone with SARS, or hear of anyone in this school who has known a friend or colleage who has it. There are over 2000 teachers and students at this school. It's a fair microcosm of Beijing, at least of the ex-pat community.

The panic that the general population has shown is based on ignorance of the true extent of the disease. Though more people will get SARS, and some of them will die (mostly the old and sick), it is not necessary for any given individual in the general community to be unduly alarmed. If you are going to panic about SARS, then you should be in a state of total terror about stepping into a car in China, where 12 000 people die each month. Strangely, the media will not cover the two accidents I saw this morning (one of which was trully horrific), nor will it dwell on the hundreds of others who will die today on the roads.

I went out on Saturday, and saw first hand the extent to which the general population has become deluded about SARS. Empty bars, empty shopping malls, people wearing masks for a disease that isn't even airborne, and which is not highly contageous. Short of touching someone in the advanced stages of SARS, or swapping spit or nasal discharge, you won't get SARS.

The one good thing to come out of this whole farce is that the Chinese Government has had to take a good long look at itself, and the culture of public deception which has pervaded it for so long. The Chinese government can no longer operate as aloof, deific autocrats, as they did in days gone by. The world has just changed too much, and so has China. If they had simply presented a policy of transparency from the word go, the general public would not be so spooked about a disease that pales in comparison to the 36 000 people who died in work-related accidents in China in the first quarter of 2003. At least the government came clean about that one, with not a ripple of panic in the community. What a strange world we live in...

[gmat]

Egas:
Why do you continue to talk about unrelated issues. We all know about work-related and automobile deaths in China. I agree that most people recover from the disease, especially young people, if they receive proper care.

However, your posts last week proved to be foolish (not worried; only 37 cases in BJ, etc.). I want some information from teachers at unis in BJ that are directly affected, where students have been sent home on a one month holiday, etc.

And please stop posting blatantly false claims, that is, that SARS is not highly contagious. I quote and refered to links below:

http://tinyurl.com/a0u3
"Are we fast enough?" said Julie Gerberding, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, writing in a current issue of the New England Journal of Medicine. "Can we prevent a global pandemic of SARS?"

If civilization is lucky, Gerberding said, diagnostic tests and treatment will be found to curtail the epidemic. A seasonal pattern will evolve, allowing scientists to contain infections within regions, and the infection rate would be slowed.

If the virus escapes the noose of public health control strategies, the world will be in for a long, difficult struggle.

"In either case, the race is on," said Gerberding. "The stakes are high. And the outcome cannot be predicted."


Highly contagious; Vaccine will be hard to find. http://tinyurl.com/a0sy

China admits Sars may spread out of control http://tinyurl.com/a0c5

China's top genomics institute discovered that the Sars virus was mutating rapidly when it independently sequenced its genetic blueprint, raising new fears about developing a vaccine to combat it. http://tinyurl.com/a0sb


Schools and universities in Beijing are suspending classes or closing down faculties after deaths or cases of Sars on their campuses. http://tinyurl.com/a0s9


You are spinning SARS more than the Chinese government!

[Hamish]

I dunno what all the fuss is about.

As of today, WHO numbers.

Total cases known in the world 3861
Total dead 217

Total in China 1959
Total dead 86
Total recovered 1187

Remaining with SARS in China 687 of whom most, if not all, are in hospitals.

The graph for date of onset of cases peaks sharply in mid March and drops precipitously ever after.

There may be a problem yet to come, as no one knows what life has in store, but I can�t see any evidence that should cause people to be upset. The stuff on TV and in the newspapers is, in my view, super ventilated hype designed to sell soap and beer.

I notice some of the people in meetings on the subject are smoking cigarettes to calm their nerves. Over a million people died in China last year due to that disease. It seems to me that many of the people who are so exercised about this episode must have lived awfully protected lives if they consider this circumstance to be dangerous.

The best advice I have heard so far is that we should carefully wash our hands before we pick our nose.

Regards,

[Roger]

Not a joke - recently the SCMP reported that CHinese men began smoking again in order to "kill the disease..."

[chinasyndrome]

[kimo]

I don't teach at a Uni in Beijing, but I live in the midst of three very large ones here. As I understand it, the May Holiday, except for one day has been cancelled in the country. Universities here, still, will have the full time off , however, students are not allowed to travel. My area, Zhongguancun in Haidian, is a hard-hit area, according to rumor. I cannot confirm that. I surmize that if this is true it could be related to the IT industry and travel between the Southern money centers of Guangdong and Hong Kong as well as the fact there are a number of hospitals in this part of the city.

To get a feel for this area of Beijing, as Egas, has already stated, the streets and shops are relatively void of the the usual throngs of people. Many people are wearing masks, but curiously I've noticed to this point, fare collectors on the buses haven't been. Those wearing them seem to be those deemed less likely to contract the illness, the younger set, college-age students. At my local, large grocery store the staff has started to wear masks. The Nongmin (rural laborers) moving about here, though, seem rather oblivious to the whole thing. It seems to reason that if it gets into that community look out! Also, many of the older people on my block seem unphased.

Rather pleasant to stroll the streets these days. Had DangDai Mall all to myself. (BTW, Paul G., did you use to hang at XinBaKe there, reading Chinese financial magazines?) At my usual lunch spot today, they were serving some concoction to help ward off the disease. In Chinese the short name for SARS is "Fei Dian" I believe.

[Egas]

Gmat,

My references to things like motor vehicle accidents are prefectly relevant within the context of which they are written - to compare the extent of SARS with other mortality risks in China at present. I won't repeat my arguments again.

SARS is highly viralent, but not highly contagious. (Perhaps some people are confusing the two). This view was stated to me by Sara Borwein, the Chair of Infectious diseases at Beijing United Hospital, an American woman with no agenda other than to tell the truth.

[TEECHER]

I'm with you !00% gmat!!! Lets take a good look at Chinasyndromes 20/20 hindsight a month from now. The epidemic is now hitting the more isolated and rural folks without educational or medical resources. Of course, these same folk must die in multiple rickshaw accidents everyday..right Egas?

[smarts]

kimo

interesting observation about bus fare collectors not wearing masks.

A friend who works on the buses was wearing a mask last week but was told / critcized by the boss for wearing it and it had to be removed.

maybe after the weekends events that boss wouldnt dare critize such practice anymore.

a week sure is a long time in China.

[Ajarn Miguk]

How do you know, Egas, you "didn't meet anyone with SARS?" How can you be so sure? The rest of the world's population doesn't seem to share your degree of certainty.

Also, the majority of the health care workers who are becoming sick or dying from SARS are/were not "old or sick."

[Egas]

The distancing technique I have used in situating SARS within a psychological, societal and statistical framework is something familiar to readers of postmodern polity. By becoming emersed in data one loses the big picture. By becoming emersed in fear one may lose the capacity for rationality.

However I am not, and never have said that SARS is not a serious problem. Anything that kills dozens of people is. It is particularly tragic for those who suffer directly. Yet I can only repeat, that for any given member of the community, the odds of contracting and dying from SARS is infintesimal, both now and in the forseeable future.

I have also never said or implied that people must die, and therefore SARS is insignificant, as Teecher implies. To state that is to completely misrepresent the meaning and intention of my posts.

With 2000 people at this school where I work, we should see our first SARS case soon, if we are to buy into the fear. But so far there is nothing from the school or the school community, which must number 5000-
10 000, if you include all family and friends in Beijing. It pays to remember that the odds of the school community here as a collective experiencing SARS directly is thus 5000-10 000 times greater than for any given individual in Beijing.

But I promise when we get something, then I will write it here immediately. That indeed may happen, but I am not going to live in fear of that moment. That is my choice, just as it is the choice of others to live in fear if they so choose.

[TEECHER]

Hi Egas, I also do not "buy into the fear" theory. The best each individual can do is assess their own personal risk given where they live, and their habits. But Hey!!!!! Can I sell you some REALITY? Like it or not, there are some stark realities coming your way soon. It would seem even the Chinese government has caught the play. Our chances of contracting S.A.R.S. here in any part of China are increasing in odds by the minute. As I said earlier, lets check out the numbers a month from now. Bye for now

[hubei_canuk]

.......

[gerard]

I believe the gov't took the advice of the WHO and cancelled the holidays to "get people's attention." And it worked. Now WHO is upset that the holiday will be 5 days and a lot of people will travel. It is at a stage now where caution should be the order of the day. Let's see what happens in the next little while. It is also alarming that the virus may be mutating and getting stronger--making a vaccine further off. Also alarming is 7 foreigners in Shanghai and 4 (?) in Beijing have been infected. Not because they are foreigners but what does it say about the % of the population infected.

Having said that I agree with egas. As it stands now it is being overblown. Unless as hubei-canuk suggests they are burning bodies in HK and destroying the evidence. (Does Oliver Stone know about this???) If we can believe the stats (and even exaggerate them for the sake of argument) the chances of contracting and then dying of SARS are ....well.....this is where getting run over by a turnip truck or struck by lightning come into play. Or the valid point about the old forms of pnuemonia (sp) which are quietly lurking in the background come into play. Or for that matter the chances of a new disease with a scary 4-letter acronym none of us have heard of yet will get you first are pretty good.

It has gone from one extreme to the other here. As of last Friday my Chinese co-workers were going to Shenzhen for the break. Now they won't set foot in the local dept. store. If there is a rumor that somebody has even a headache suddenly SARS has come to town. Speaking of headaches I have a 7 am class. Good evening.