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canuckistan
Mod Team
Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Location: Training future GS competitors.....
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 Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2007 7:54 pm Post subject: Kim Jong-Il under house arrest? |
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This just out of Japan. The NK military may have him locked up or he's sick....wouldn't that be great!!!:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070126/wl_nm/korea_north_kim_dc_1
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SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korean officials on Friday denied a report that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il might be ill or that the military had plotted against him.
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The report by Japan's Jiji Press, quoting a source in South Korea, said he may be under house arrest at his villa in Wonsan on the east coast of the secretive communist country.
"We know of nothing to back it up," a Unification Ministry official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. "There are no unusual circumstances."
A South Korean intelligence source told Reuters the Jiji report had "no credibility."
In Tokyo, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki, asked about the report, said: "We have not heard information of that kind."
Diplomatic officials in Pyongyang, contacted by telephone, said there were no signs of unusual activity on the streets of the impoverished country's capital.
On Sunday, the North's official KCNA news agency reported Kim had given field guidance at a power station. Kim also visited factories and military camps last week, according to KCNA, which did not specify the actual time he made the trips.
A diplomatic source in Tokyo with close ties to North Korea said there were no "abnormal movements" in North Korea, adding that such rumors had been circulating since January 10.
Another said some South Koreans linked to political parties opposed to improving ties between North and South were spreading such rumors.
A diplomatic source in Pyongyang, contacted by telephone from Beijing, said he had heard the rumors but they were not accurate and appeared to have come from a South Korean source. He said there was no evidence of any change on the streets of Pyongyang.
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On the other hand
Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue
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| Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2007 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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| At this point, it would seem that there is more evidence against the story than for it. Everyone from the South Korean Unification ministry to the Japanese cabinet and diplomats in Tokyo is saying they don't think it's credible. |
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canuckistan
Mod Team
Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Location: Training future GS competitors.....
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| Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2007 8:13 pm Post subject: |
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| On the other hand wrote: |
| At this point, it would seem that there is more evidence against the story than for it. Everyone from the South Korean Unification ministry to the Japanese cabinet and diplomats in Tokyo is saying they don't think it's credible. |
Yeah it's pretty skimpy I know, but how fun it would be to finally be able to sing "Ding Dong The Witch Is Dead!!!" |
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twg
Joined: 02 Nov 2006
Location: Getting some fresh air...
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| Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2007 8:47 pm Post subject: |
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| The only way this would be good is if his replacement son is more moderate and willing to deal with the rest of the world. |
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Harpeau
Joined: 01 Feb 2003
Location: Coquitlam, BC
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| Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2007 8:54 pm Post subject: |
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| twg wrote: |
| The only way this would be good is if his replacement son is more moderate and willing to deal with the rest of the world. |
If you believe that to be at all possible~ I've got some swampland for sale in Florida~ real cheap! |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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| Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2007 8:59 pm Post subject: |
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| TWG, I disagree. If the military were to take control (and I HIGHLY doubt they have), they would likely lean towards an opening similar to China. |
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jaganath69
Joined: 17 Jul 2003
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| Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2007 10:04 pm Post subject: |
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| BJWD wrote: |
| TWG, I disagree. If the military were to take control (and I HIGHLY doubt they have), they would likely lean towards an opening similar to China. |
It would depend to which degree free market thinking had penetrated the ruling cadre. I know all that it takes is one Gorbachev if you believe the constructivist school of though, but in such a closed society it remains difficult. That aside, given the army's leading role, outside influence would be more likely to reach that group. |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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| Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2007 11:08 pm Post subject: |
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| jaganath69 wrote: |
| BJWD wrote: |
| TWG, I disagree. If the military were to take control (and I HIGHLY doubt they have), they would likely lean towards an opening similar to China. |
It would depend to which degree free market thinking had penetrated the ruling cadre. I know all that it takes is one Gorbachev if you believe the constructivist school of though, but in such a closed society it remains difficult. That aside, given the army's leading role, outside influence would be more likely to reach that group. |
I attended a very interesting seminar on this topic a few months back. The speakers were suggesting that due to a large number of high'ish ranking NK military types who have fled to China, the Chinese would be able to push the NK's towards a loosening in the (unlikely) event they tossed aside KJI. The speakers asserted that the Chinese military and the NK military are in "talks" outside of KJI's permission. Anyhow, I don't think it has much to do with 'free-market' ideas and the Red Army but more the influence that the Chinese would hold over the NK army. Instability isn't what they (the Chinese want) and as such they would likely push for a Chinese style opening to get the economic ball rolling and prevent a possible collapse. That doesn't mean that liberty and such are on the horizon, but that to maintain stability the Chinese would turn the North into an economic proxy. Then annex it. (The last part is my opinion). |
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Adventurer
Joined: 28 Jan 2006
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| Posted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 7:16 am Post subject: |
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| There are divisions in the North Korean power structure. It is not so uniform among the military. There are those who have long been connected to his father and to Kim Jung Il and they have benefited from this relationship and quick opening up of the Chinese variety would perhaps threaten their power but the pro-Chinese elements would want this opening rather than remain completely isolated, and they would benefit financially from an opening and become wealthy because they would have the resources to start the first businesses and live like fat cats. A less open North Korea is easier to control by Kim Jung Il, and he doesn't want to end up like Ceaucescu. He may open up gradually in the future, but he would probably be very cautious about it. |
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