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The sky, it turns out, isn't falling!
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The Lemon



Joined: 11 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 12:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

dulouz wrote:
Yea, they signatures aren't worth anything. They'll lie about this and then even now they are developing a new extortion technique.


Conservative American sour-talk like this is a dime a dozen over at Marmot's today:

http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/02/13/breaking-news-n-korea-nuke-deal-reached/

As much as I disagree with the wisdom of giving Norks anything to promise to stop doing something bad (history shows this just encourages them to do new bad things for future payoffs), it's freaking hilarious to listen to the crowd who for years mocked and vilified Clinton, Carter & co for 1994 try to make excuses for today's repeated history lesson.

Lessons, in fact. Today has taught us that in the Bush Administration-Chinese relationship, it's Beijing that wears the pants.

Lesson and prediction: The next time an administration does its tough-talking cowboy routine ("we will not reward bad behaviour! all options are on the table!!"), expect their targets to make little hand puppet gestures while they roll their eyes and laugh mockingly. There's hypocracy, and then there's the Bush administration.

Honestly, as a longtime admirer of the US, I'm not happy to see the credibility of a once-proud hyperpower turn into such a joke. What squandered potential.
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Julius



Joined: 27 Jul 2006

PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 12:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Lemon wrote:
What squandered potential.


You'd have preferred it if they'd "reached their potential" and dropped a few nukes?
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The Lemon



Joined: 11 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 12:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No, I'd have prefered they'd kept to their principled position of not rewarding dictators for developing and testing nuclear weapons. Tankerfuls of oil look a whole lot like a reward. Does Kim Jong Il get conjugal rights to the twins in the deal as well?

What's that Internet forum-ism we read all the time insulting France when they refused to support the great Iraqi adventure? Oh yes, now I remember.

I'll paraphrase: the current administration is a troop of burger-eating surrender monkeys. With freedom fries on the side.

CNN wrote:
Not addressed in the agreement is what will happen to any nuclear weapons North Korea may have stockpiled. Reports have suggested that Pyongyang may have as many as a dozen nuclear bombs.
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/02/13/nkorea.talks/index.html

Nice work, guys. He gets fuel and/or money - $300 million of it, he gets a promise from the US to begin the process of normalizing relations and getting off the Evil list, AND he gets to keep whatever toys he's managed to assemble and not test yet.

KJI just won the Powerball.
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cdninkorea



Joined: 27 Jan 2006
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 7:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My thoughts exactly The Lemon- good posts.
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jaganath69



Joined: 17 Jul 2003

PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I posted something similar on the marmot's site, but here goes again. Really, what was the other option, Failed state, increasingly desperate and unsure DPRK, proliferation of nuclear technology as a final means to scrape some hard currency from all of this? Let's not mention that potential US/DPRK conflict provides a strategic window of opportunity for China to attack Taiwan.

While this may seem wrong on a moral level, morality plays little part in high politics. Those who argue other miss the point that this is in the best interests of US security interests if it works out. It removes the threat of nuclear attack by divesting the North of its missiles. Moreover it lessens one of the few potentials for hostile non-state actors to acquire WMD technology. It also stabilizes a region in which the US has a massive interest.

US power is spread to thinly at the moment for this to be resolved any other way. Sanctions did little to halt Saddam Hussein's regime and even if they did work, a nuclear-armed state has options he did not. For all the bluster, the Jinjus who are merely mimicking the bomb-them-back-to-the-stone-age rhetoric of the right wing blogosphere, I want to know what alternative endgame do you see to all this.

Lemon, I especially appreciate the irony of the Clinton plan coming full circle.


Last edited by jaganath69 on Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:34 am; edited 1 time in total
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thepeel



Joined: 08 Aug 2004

PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jaganath69 wrote:
the BJWDs, the Jinjus who are merely mimicking the bomb-them-back-to-the-stone-age rhetoric of the right wing blogosphere, I want to know what alternative endgame do you see to all this.


We all make mistakes.


Last edited by thepeel on Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:38 am; edited 1 time in total
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thepeel



Joined: 08 Aug 2004

PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BJWD wrote:
The Americans are finally willing (again) to play along.
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jaganath69



Joined: 17 Jul 2003

PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Christ, it's late and I missquoted you badly. I'll edit it. Can I get a cookie now?
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thepeel



Joined: 08 Aug 2004

PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jaganath69 wrote:
Christ, it's late and I missquoted you badly. I'll edit it. Can I get a cookie now?


Yes.

There is no choice now for dealing the KJI. You have to wait him out. The Americans have zero options other than making a deal now and subverting him via non-traditional means.
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Sincinnatislink



Joined: 30 Jan 2007
Location: Top secret.

PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 12:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="BJWD"]
jaganath69 wrote:
. . . subverting him via non-traditional means.


Why don't you cut out the doublethink and just say "depose?"
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The Lemon



Joined: 11 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 5:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jaganath69 wrote:
I posted something similar on the marmot's site, but here goes again. Really, what was the other option, Failed state, increasingly desperate and unsure DPRK, proliferation of nuclear technology as a final means to scrape some hard currency from all of this?


You seem to be implying that it's in the US's interest to continue to prop up the North Korean regime. I'm not saying the Americans should begin bombing Kaesong or Yongbyon.

I'm saying doing nothing was a perfectly good option. Why exactly do US taxpayers owe the North anything (and not the taxpayers of, say, Belize)? And why should the US government make any agreements at all with them which result in the US giving economic, military or diplomatic concessions? And how exactly is it in the interest of the American people to be providing energy to the North Korean army?

Nuts. If North Korea wants to be a normal country, the regime there knows the steps it can take. If it collapsed, that would be China's and South Korea's problem and responsibility to deal with.

And yes, if they ever sold nuclear material "to scrape up hard currency" and there was proof of it, then we could talk bombing.
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NAVFC



Joined: 10 May 2006

PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sincinnatislink wrote:
Wait, so they're asking for energy and assurance of security?

But . . .
But . . .
That's what nuclear reactors do!

That means they weren't planning world domination.
I hate it when power-mad dictators do reasonable things.


North Korea was manafacutirng nuclear weapons. Not just reactors, numnutz.
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jinju



Joined: 22 Jan 2006

PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 6:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
North Korea's state-run news agency reported Tuesday the country stands to get 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil for a mere �temporary� suspension of its nuclear activities, a claim at loggerheads with the text of an agreement reached in six-party nuclear talks in Beijing.


Ah the reality of dealing with North Korea. Bomb them back to the stone age.
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jaganath69



Joined: 17 Jul 2003

PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Lemon wrote:
You seem to be implying that it's in the US's interest to continue to prop up the North Korean regime. I'm not saying the Americans should begin bombing Kaesong or Yongbyon.

I'm saying doing nothing was a perfectly good option. Why exactly do US taxpayers owe the North anything (and not the taxpayers of, say, Belize)? And why should the US government make any agreements at all with them which result in the US giving economic, military or diplomatic concessions? And how exactly is it in the interest of the American people to be providing energy to the North Korean army?


Stopping the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to potentially 'rogue' states is in the American interest. This is what this deal achieves at not too high a price.
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Zolt



Joined: 18 May 2006

PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 6:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Am I the only one to see some interesting possibilities here? The deal as it is does not involve cash that I know of, but mostly oil and electricity. Oil can be stockpiled and resold, granted, but the electricity thing is interesting. It can hardly be stockpiled, and the whole issue about controlling distribution and use, that has plague every other form of aid, is pretty much irrelevant here.

You can't do much with electricity except distribute it do light and warm the people, and unless NK is a lot more advanced than we give them credit for, it has very few military applications.

Now NK has been in an energy crisis since the fall of USSR, if not before. Currently, it's allocated in priority to critical government services, industries and of course KJI and his goons. Now with an abundant energy supply, the use, and reliance on electricity should become much more widespread. One positive effect is that it might alleviate a bit the sufferings of the common NK citizen. Second, and more important, is what happens for some reason SK decides to cut the power inflow?

That's it, blackout for half the country, and unless they are very careful about the way they build their electrical network, even those critical services and industries might be affected. Even if they do plan for the capability to shut off noncritical part of their network to reallocate power to the others, a sudden shutdown might still strain or even damage their inside energy production facilities.

That's one very big card that's being handed to south korea, if they can use it right. People getting used to electricity and then having it cut might even cause just the kind of civil disorder that we'd all like to see in NK.

That said, I do agree with the above poster in that the US did not need do anything about the NK nuclear situation in the first place. Ignoring the north's insignifiant threats and demands was always the best solutions.
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