Korean Job Discussion Forums

[traxxe]

Just a probe for some of your thoughts on this matter...

Do you feel that since China will be on the national stage for the 08 olympics with a new president in the States we could see a push for independence?

Bush has stated he supports the status quo but that could change with a new administration?

How do you think such an event would play out in the region? China has a lot of big missiles pointed at Taiwan though I doubt they would ever use nuclear weapons.

Of note recently I read on BBC news that Taiwan was testing cruise missiles recently capable of striking China.

I for one would be for independence but I generally support revolution in all forms. I figure the more revolution the better chance we as a people have at finding a more near perfect society and world in which to live our lives as governments experiment to perfect goverment.

[Nowhere Man]

Short answer: No.

Long answer: First of all, declaring independence is a highly controversial issue in Taiwan. There is anything but consensus on the issue. It is not as if the people of Taiwan are collectively yearning to be their own state. This is reflected in the two major political parties there, who are essentially divided by ths very point. What's more is that Chen Shui Bien's pro-independence party has taken a beating since it gained control due to scandals and whatnot. Thus, the independence movement is currently on the backslide and the KMT will probably win the next election, which means that a move for independence next year is highly unlikely.

Moreover, Taiwan does a brisk trade with the mainland, and as such stands to gain a great deal with the PRC's economic upswing. This, I believe, is what takes precedence. The same goes for US involvement. I don't believe either party would stir a hornet's nest and take a chance on losing the profits from investment in both China and Taiwan.

Furthermore, there is not really much to be gained from independence. Diplomatic recognition is about the extent of it. The Taiwanese are already "free". The fastest way for them to lose such freedom would be to give China an excuse to invade them. Why take a chance with such provocation? This applies to cruise missiles as well. Taiwan is pretty much armed to the gills with weapons, but they wouldn't stand a chance against the Red Army. Rather, arms sales to Taiwan serve as a way for the US to project influence and basically serve as a deterrent so as to avoid any notions by the PRC that it's just a sitting duck.

Having said all that, it would be nice for them to become independent if that's what they truly desire while, on the other hand, I believe that China would take advantage of any serious armed conflict in the region to snatch it up under the guise of maintaining stability. Given this delicate balance, I think I support the status quo.

As for the Olympics, I again see it more as a cash cow that will financially benefit them both. If there's any political hubbub, it wll be about human rights, but I doubt that the US will boycott. It'll be interesting to see who, if anybody, does. And, as far as I know, the Chinese allow Taiwan to compete in such games under the moniker "Chinese Taipei".

[On the other hand]

Not much to add to Nowhere Man's well-informed opinions. I will say that I don't think the US would really appreciate being put on the spot by any Taiwanese declaration of independence. It wouldn't be in the USA's interest to alienate China by recognizing Taiwan as an independent country.

[Kuros]

[Nowhere Man]

[traxxe]

I personally thought a push for Independence might have been made had the current administration not been wracked in scandal. I think more than anything there is some desire to be independent.... just enough to cause a stink but no overall enough of a row to cause any major conflict or really have any drama erupt out of Taiwan. Sentimentally, I desire more of a push for independence I suppose. Really, even if such a push is just a politcal one that yields less of a actual result than a moral victory.

It would take radical polarization of Taiwan in a swift period of time to see any sort of manifestation of a 'independence' desiring mentality. I believe though that this administration failed to capture and make its case to the people. Haha, they needed to 'capture the hearts and minds' of the people but instead left a distinctly crap flavored taste in their mouths instead.

What about a financial downturn as a motivator?

Oh well, I guess the spector of Chiang Kaishek can slumber a little longer. Good job KMT! I guess the most freedom involved issue we will get to witness is watching the name of the airport shift back and forth over the years.

So Chiang Kai-Shek International Airport anyone?

Nowhereman, that was a very insightful response. Thank you.

[mindmetoo]

China isn't going to launch a war during the Olympics. It's certainly a time for Taiwan to press out a boundary.

[traxxe]

I think the olympics would be a perfect time to push to get more seperation. I just don't see it happening because of the political circumstances and the time not being right for Taiwan. Even if the global factors are right for a change.