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PREDICTION: Massive Antiwar Protests Across US this Summer
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Gopher



Joined: 04 Jun 2005

PostPosted: Wed Mar 21, 2007 1:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Manner of Speaking wrote:
...at least eight events of at least ten thousand protesters each, in the US, by the end of August [emphasis added].


That is a bold position, Manner. Here is why I think so:

W. Bush is on his way out. New presidential candidates' names are in the air. People will start to calm down and think about the future soon. If Obama stays near the front of the race, things might just get hopeful and optimistic.

Moreover, W. Bush does not appear to have sufficient political capital or moral authority to launch an Iranian campaign. Such a campaign might -- that is might -- provoke something akin to a coup d'etat and not merely increased war protests. But that is what it would take to get the numbers you are predicting.

Also, my understanding is that Nixon succeeded in gutting many of the antiwar protests simply by making the draft fairer and more rational and transparent than it had been under Johnson. That was, arguably, the decisive (but not the only) issue driving the protestors. And that entire issue is nonexistent in today's context.

In short, I doubt the protestors' numbers will climb -- even if I do believe they will be out again and again this summer and "at least eight" does not sound unlikely at all...
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Manner of Speaking



Joined: 09 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Wed Mar 21, 2007 5:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fair enough, I'm willing to bet that I might be wrong on the numbers.

The exercise here is to have a bit of fun with forecasts and predictions. I (obviously) hope there will be more than eight protest events of 10,000 people or more, otherwise I will be out my $20. Laughing

The actual political issue - people protesting against the war - is germane, but somewhat secondary to this thread. Under certain circumstances, betting can be seen as an expression of 'faith' or 'belief' in a particular understanding of the world, and an expression of faith in how that particular paradigm will express itself in the future. A bet like this can test one's understanding of the electorate and of public opinion, and the outcome of the bet (when it ends in August) will gauge to a certain extent whether that weltanschung is accurate.

Everybody's willing to express their opinion on this forum, but very few people are ever willing to admit they're wrong. It would make things a lot more interesting here if participants were more willing to put themselves in a position where they could be wrong once in a while.

On a side note, I have this bizarre sensation this week that Washington is experiencing a 'Vietnam' and a 'Watergate' simultaneously. Shocked
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee



Joined: 25 May 2003

PostPosted: Sat Mar 31, 2007 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Aren't they really "anti war by the US" protests?

I mean there are lots of wars going on in the world but they only seem to notice the ones where they US is involved and only protest against US actions.

I mean anyone every see the "anti war " movement protest gains the on going war by the Bathists, Khomeni followers and Al Qaedists?


Of course not. These people aren't really "anti war " they are just anti US . These people ought to really say what they are for they won't cause they are dishonest.
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Mosley



Joined: 15 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 12:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My old friend Joo is right. The so-called peaceniks are remarkably tolerant of violence when it is directed against Western civilians(esp. in Israel), for example. The fact is, the "peace" crowd learned a tactical lesson from the Vietnam War era: never proclaim openly who you support. That lesson was learned by the SDS when, having praised the Viet Cong and Ho Chi Minh, found out that it alienated the famous "Silent Majority". It also tended to invite a good whuppin' from construction workers. "Damn those proles! Don't they know their class interests like we bourgeois intellectuals do!?" Moreover, the fact that over a 4 yr. period U.S. military casualties have been RELATIVELY low has been a wet blanket on the protest "movement".

To the aging SDS types of yesteryear, I would ask: where were your protests in '68(Czechoslovakia), '79(Afghanistan), '80-'82(crackdown on Solidarity in Poland)? I know you sprung to life in '83(protesting the liberation of Grenada) and '91(liberation of Kuwait).
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Manner of Speaking



Joined: 09 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 2:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, this isn't really what this thread is about, but in answer to your question, I AM old enough to remember how thousands of people turned out on the streets - at least in Canada - to protest the Tienanmen Massacre and the coup against Michael Gorbachev in 1991. And I remember that awesome party we had at my house in Ottawa when the Berlin Wall fell. I'm pretty sure I got laid that night, but I can't exactly remember. Laughing

Ahh, Mosley, those were the days, my man...** recalling fondly ** I remember WAY back in the early 80s, that was BA time: Before AIDS.

You didn't need condoms or anything, just get your girlfriend on the pill and the two of you were all set. I met this one black chick at an antinuclear war rally, she was amazing. Could suck the chrome off a trailer hitch.

Those were the days. Laughing


Last edited by Manner of Speaking on Mon Apr 02, 2007 3:28 am; edited 1 time in total
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Manner of Speaking



Joined: 09 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 2:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In any case...I mentioned earlier, this thread is not about the merits of the "war", either for or against, or the merits of the opinions of those in the US who choose to protest against the war. It's simply intended as a prediction exercise.

Last edited by Manner of Speaking on Mon Apr 02, 2007 3:29 am; edited 1 time in total
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EFLtrainer



Joined: 04 May 2005

PostPosted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 2:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I predict this won't be the last time the thread goes off-topic.











I further predict a few of our neo-con idiots will be pouncing soon in this thread.
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Mosley



Joined: 15 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 6:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fair enough, Manner, fair enough. And I give you credit for putting your a$$ on the line for making the prediction. That alone guarantees that this thread won't die for months to come.

"BA". Ha, ha! I'm old enough to remember the "just say yes" Seventies, when syph & clap were the deadliest STDs around....
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Mosley



Joined: 15 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Sun Aug 19, 2007 8:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

*Bump*

Well, MOS...feel the 20 bucks slippin' away? Wink
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Manner of Speaking



Joined: 09 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As a matter of fact, I do. I'm surprised, but in any case, it's been an interesting exercise.
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Manner of Speaking



Joined: 09 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Sun Sep 16, 2007 8:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Four.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070916/ap_on_re_us/iraq_war_protest

And see Kean's thread:

http://forums.eslcafe.com/korea/viewtopic.php?t=98977


In any case, it seems I've lost my bet...WHOOPS! I thought I had bet this for the end of September, looks like I forgot I had bet it for the end of August of this year.

So, it's official; I owe $20 to an appropriate charity, to be paid by PayPal. I believe somebody (?) made the suggestion that an appropriate charity would be Freedom for North Korea? I will proceed to do so.
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On the other hand



Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue

PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2007 8:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Tens of thousands of people have taken part in demonstrations against the war in Iraq in cities across the US.
Rallies took place in a dozen cities, with the biggest crowds gathering in New York, Chicago and San Francisco.

They were timed to coincide with the fifth anniversary of a vote by the US Senate to authorise the Iraq invasion.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7065975.stm
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igotthisguitar



Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)

PostPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CANADIAN ARMS EXPORTS TRIPLE
(Flying Under The Radar)

http://news.search.yahoo.com/news/search?p=canadian+arms+exports&c=
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Manner of Speaking



Joined: 09 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 3:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

...and the relevance to this thread is...?
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cbclark4



Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Location: Masan

PostPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 4:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

IGTG needs not be relevant, he's IGTG after all.
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