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gang ah jee
Joined: 14 Jan 2003
Location: city of paper
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 Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 1:11 am Post subject: US Elections 2008: Let's Speculate! |
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Ok, so I'm already getting electionmania about a country I've never even visited. But it's time. Who will/would you vote for, and who do you think will win? I'll give my opinions, but keep in mind that I know almost nothing about US politics, so feel free to scoff.
Me, I really, really like Obama. He seems to inspire a lot more enthusiasm than the average candidate. Otherwise, I'd prefer Edwards over Hillary. If Hillary was on the ballot I'd probably start thinking very carefully about the Republican candidate. Ugh.
Overall though, I think at this point Clinton may have a better chance that Obama. I don't know why I think that, however. And obviously, any Democrat candidate will have a better shot against any of the republican candidates.
Blah blah blah place your preferences and your picks. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 1:39 am Post subject: |
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The US is a very conservative country.
Usually the only way a Democrat can win the national election is if something exceptional happens. Bill Clinton in 1996 was an exception (, in 1992 he would have lost if it had been a two person race) .
All the Republicans need to do is win either Ohio or Pennsylvania and they win. |
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gang ah jee
Joined: 14 Jan 2003
Location: city of paper
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 1:42 am Post subject: |
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| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
The US is a very conservative country.
Usually the only way a Democrat can win the national election is if something exceptional happens. Bill Clinton in 1996 was an exception (, in 1992 he would have lost if it had been a two person race) .
All the Republicans need to do is win either Ohio or Pennsylvania and they win. |
Then how did Gore and Kerry *almost* win in 2000 and 2004?
And what's your pick? Come on, you Nazgul! |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 1:51 am Post subject: |
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Joo to the US, "The election is already over."
Well that's nice to know. |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 2:07 am Post subject: |
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| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
The US is a very conservative country.
Usually the only way a Democrat can win the national election is if something exceptional happens. Bill Clinton in 1996 was an exception (, in 1992 he would have lost if it had been a two person race) .
All the Republicans need to do is win either Ohio or Pennsylvania and they win. |
Incorrect. The US is a very corrupted country.
Rove: Prosecute Democratic vote fraud, even if there is none.
Rove: You're fired! Who asked you to prosecute Republican vote fraud?
Rove: You're fired! Why didn't you prosecute Democratic vote fraud?
Rove: Why are you prosecuting Republican corruption? You're fired!
D of J prosecutions 2001 - 2007: Dem/Rep 5/1. |
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PBRstreetgang21
Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Location: Orlando, FL--- serving as man's paean to medocrity since 1971!
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 4:08 am Post subject: |
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| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
| The US is a very conservative country. |
In the quaint words of the Virgin Mary-- come again?
Tell that to the Gay marriage state of Massachusetts, the legalized personal pot smokers in Alaska, Any person in or around the city of Vegas. Over half the population of California, Washington state, Oregon, Minnesota, New York, and I could go on and on forever.
The US is an extremly diverse country. There are Neo-Nazis in California and there are Gay rights adovcates in Tennessee. What I love most about my country and what makes America great is the sheer diversity of opinion and thought to be found across the board all over that great land. This "America is conservative" is utter nonsese its almost as bad as that idiotic red state/blue state crap cooked up by bored CNN news analysts. Ive done a quite a bit of travelling all over the US and Ive found some Super-conservative righ wing fascists in the liberal city of San Francisco, and Ive met hardcore liberal activits in States that still fly the confederate flag. America has got to be one of the most difficult countries to generalize for in the world. To say America is conservative is just patent nonsense.
As far as the election goes, the dems have agreat shot. The Repubs are hugely distrusted right now, even in many places they typically do well. People like Rove are now on the outs with mianstream republicans and the issues are changing. Americans are finally coming around to Global warming and the need for an overhaul of the Health care system.
You are right Nazgul, Clinton would not have won a two many race in 1992, but the reasonw hy he won in 1996 and the reason why to this day he STILL has the highest approval rating of any president since FDR, is because he was a big tent guy, he had a vision and he didnt go liberal or conservative. What he called "The third Way"
Obama definetly fits into that category. He tends to be a man of listening and discussion rather than a Hillary Clinton or John Edwards politician of "look at my big idea!!!". I think someone who is coming more from a values agenda, and who is looking to listen and discuss is gonna go a long way in this election.
Aside from Edwards Clinton and Obama there isnt much hope for the other dems they are kinda.... SSDD.
As for the Repubs..... welll.... Guliani is insane if he thinks given his track record ("I dont feel bad divorcing my wife for secretary while I was sleeping with her" and "Id give my daughter money for an abortion") that he can get the nomination. McCain is a good front runner but no one really likes him so much as the just dont like anyone else. I think hes running cause he thinks hes owed the Presidency. As for the third strong guy, Romney.... hard to say but even as a liberal Dem.... I like him, despite his conservatism and I think hes kind of a wild card. In point of fact I think Romney will really spice this election cycle up. |
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Tiger Beer
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 4:43 am Post subject: |
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Guliani would be real interesting. I'd like to see him make a good running. I'm generally not interested in Republicans.. but I'm very interested in Guliani.
McCain.. (I agree with PBRstreetgang21).. and to me, feels like John Kerry last election.. just feels like he's owed it.. also much like Dole.. basically McCain has 'loser' stamped across his forehead for the next election with this sense of entitlement for getting the nomination.
Obama is very interesting. I'm looking at all of the candidates.. but he's the most interesting.. and articulate. I'd love to have an articulate guy in office again.
Tommy Thompson was interesting only in the sense that he actually has a plan for Iraq. I'm not so keen on any of his other politics.. but at least he realizes the 'send americans to iraq to be slaughtered forever until the U.S. national budget is bankrupt' isn't a real exit strategy. He basically wants to divide Iraq into 18 parts and each section has its own sovereignity.. then of course get the U.S. the hell out of there.
Newt Gingrich scares the hell out of me.. even worse than Dick Cheney.
Hiliary seems to have a very decent chance of winning the Democratic nomination.. but pretty much no chance of winning the Presidential Election. In that sense, scares me that the potential of some freaky ass Republican extremist on either a moral crusade or christian agenda could get in there an pull a Christian-version Taliban-type government in the U.S. |
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Cerebroden
Joined: 27 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 4:57 am Post subject: |
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are you kidding me? the U.S. is a conservative country? It will be hard for a democrat to win? LAst I checked there have been quite a few democrats.
Oh and...I changed my party affiliation to democrat just so I can vote in the primary. God help everyone if hillary clinton gets elected.
Although part of me almost wants her to win...The backlash from what she would pull would effectively seal up the presidency for republicans for the next 3-4 terms. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:19 am Post subject: |
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| gang ah jee wrote: |
| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
The US is a very conservative country.
Usually the only way a Democrat can win the national election is if something exceptional happens. Bill Clinton in 1996 was an exception (, in 1992 he would have lost if it had been a two person race) .
All the Republicans need to do is win either Ohio or Pennsylvania and they win. |
Then how did Gore and Kerry *almost* win in 2000 and 2004?
And what's your pick? Come on, you Nazgul! |
Gore didn't win even though the stock market and the economy had been doing very well and even when there were no signs of war.
Kerry lost despite Bush having an approval rating of less than 50%.
Thanks for the kind words 
Guliani or McCain.
Last edited by Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee on Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:32 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:22 am Post subject: |
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| EFLtrainer wrote: |
| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
The US is a very conservative country.
Usually the only way a Democrat can win the national election is if something exceptional happens. Bill Clinton in 1996 was an exception (, in 1992 he would have lost if it had been a two person race) .
All the Republicans need to do is win either Ohio or Pennsylvania and they win. |
Incorrect. The US is a very corrupted country.
Rove: Prosecute Democratic vote fraud, even if there is none.
Rove: You're fired! Who asked you to prosecute Republican vote fraud?
Rove: You're fired! Why didn't you prosecute Democratic vote fraud?
Rove: Why are you prosecuting Republican corruption? You're fired!
D of J prosecutions 2001 - 2007: Dem/Rep 5/1. |
There has been irregular practices on both sides.
I know it is another conspiracy like 9-11. |
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Octavius Hite
Joined: 28 Jan 2004
Location: Househunting, looking for a new bunker from which to convert the world to homosexuality.
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:28 am Post subject: |
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| Gore didn't win even though the stock market and the economy had been doing very well and even when there were no signs of war. |
Actually, Gore did win. Man you people forget so easily. GW Bush was basically appointed by the US Supreme Court and had the ballots been counted legally, fairly and in due order Gore would have been the president. We will never forget that this president wasn't even legitimately elected never mind the pooch screw of a job he has done since.
And my prediction (or my yearning desire):
Obama Prez, Clinton VP, Edwards Attorney General, Wes Clark Sec of Def, Bill Richardson Sec of State, Valeria Plame CIA Chief
Ahh dreams. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:39 am Post subject: |
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| Octavius Hite wrote: |
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| Gore didn't win even though the stock market and the economy had been doing very well and even when there were no signs of war. |
Actually, Gore did win. Man you people forget so easily. GW Bush was basically appointed by the US Supreme Court and had the ballots been counted legally, fairly and in due order Gore would have been the president. We will never forget that this president wasn't even legitimately elected never mind the pooch screw of a job he has done since.
And my prediction (or my yearning desire):
Obama Prez, Clinton VP, Edwards Attorney General, Wes Clark Sec of Def, Bill Richardson Sec of State, Valeria Plame CIA Chief
Ahh dreams. |
| Quote: |
How can you be so sure?
Newspapers' recount shows Bush prevailed
By Dennis Cauchon, USA TODAY
Click to see an interactive analysis of Florida's undervotes.
George W. Bush would have won a hand count of Florida's disputed ballots if the standard advocated by Al Gore had been used, the first full study of the ballots reveals. Bush would have won by 1,665 votes � more than triple his official 537-vote margin � if every dimple, hanging chad and mark on the ballots had been counted as votes, a USA TODAY/Miami Herald/Knight Ridder study shows. The study is the first comprehensive review of the 61,195 "undervote" ballots that were at the center of Florida's disputed presidential election.
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THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT HAND RECOUNTS ARE MORE OBJECTIVE THAN MACHINE COUNTS. Furthermore the reason for many of the spoiled ballots was the Democrats were getting drunks and homeless people to vote and a lot of them were so out of it that they messed up.
Bush also lost votes when the Florida was called for Gore.
By the way I voted for Gore in 2000.
By the way those are not the people Gore would have selected. One thing that I do know was Richard Holbroke would have been secretary of state. |
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huffdaddy
Joined: 25 Nov 2005
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:42 am Post subject: |
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| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
Gore didn't win even though the stock market and the economy had been doing very well and even when there were no signs of war. |
Gore carried the popular vote. He also shunned the support of Clinton, and had votes sapped away by Nader.
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| Kerry lost despite Bush having an approval rating of less than 50%. |
He was right around 50% on election day. See http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval.htm. You have to be doing pretty crappy to get ousted as an encombant.
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| Guliani or McCain. |
No way for Giuliani. Vowel sounds at the end of their family name don't get elected President. His love life will sink him with the Christian right. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:51 am Post subject: |
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[quote="huffdaddy"]
| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
Gore didn't win even though the stock market and the economy had been doing very well and even when there were no signs of war. |
| Quote: |
Gore carried the popular vote. He also shunned the support of Clinton, and had votes sapped away by Nader. |
With that backdrop it should not have even been close.
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| Kerry lost despite Bush having an approval rating of less than 50%. |
What was Bush's approval rating? Less than 50% and yet he still won the popular vote. Despite the fact that he is a terrible communicator. |
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huffdaddy
Joined: 25 Nov 2005
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2007 6:48 am Post subject: |
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| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
| huffdaddy wrote: |
| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
Gore didn't win even though the stock market and the economy had been doing very well and even when there were no signs of war. |
Gore carried the popular vote. He also shunned the support of Clinton, and had votes sapped away by Nader. |
With that backdrop it should not have even been close. |
Well, by the time of the election, the stock market was falling. It peaked around March, 2000. So that wasn't a major help to Gore.
And it wasn't like Bush was a no name newcomer. His father was President and that alone probably helped carry a lot of votes.
| Quote: |
| Quote: |
| Quote: |
| Kerry lost despite Bush having an approval rating of less than 50%. |
He was right around 50% on election day. See http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval.htm. You have to be doing pretty crappy to get ousted as an encombant. |
What was Bush's approval rating? Less than 50% and yet he still won the popular vote. Despite the fact that he is a terrible communicator. |
See the link. I don't have the exact numbers for the polls, but the average looks pretty close to 50%. Which should be enough to carry an incumbent.
Not to mention that Bush generally avoided free speaking opportunities and debates during the election cycles. So that's not really an issue.
Compare Kerry's performance to Dukakis's. That Bush Jr. was so close to losing as an incumbent indicates something. |
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