Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Adventurer]

Turkey is very different than Indonesia and Morocco. Turkey actually has a very large secular population. Those countries do not have one that can actually stick their head out without fear and this is what the secularists in Turkey do not want. Yes, it may sound extreme, and it may be so. However, modern Turkey is associated with secularism, the old weak Ottoman Empire that was dismembered was associated with religiousity. The seculars do not want to look back at that. The seculars did build modern Turkey. It was they who embraced the West; not the Islamists. Yes, of late, so did the AK. The AK has done a good job, but they have some very scary extremists.

If I were the seculars, I would form a strong political party and ensure the presidency is in their hands, pass some more liberal reforms, and reduce the percentage of the vote needed to enter the parliament.
I am not really opposed to the AK. The Turks seem to be saying that the army represents them only because the AK does not represent the majority's views on religion per se. The Turkish electoral system is very skewed. The AK only received 34% of the votes, but they have over 60% of the seats, so the reculars rely on the army to block the party from becoming too strong.

I am for some more inclusion of the Kurds, moderate religious elements, and pro-Western Turks. It is a difficult balancing act. I am definitely for the triumph of secularism, and I do believe the seculars are somewhat paranoid, but based on the actions of some in the AK and Islamists in the region, it is understandable. The AK has done good things, mind you.
They were more inclusive of the Kurds i.e. less discriminatory, the economy improved under them, they tried hard to work with the Greeks, and the E.U., and they have not pushed the head scarf issue.

[Woland]

Here's a link to a NYTimes article running today on how the rise of AK has had a moderating effect on Islamicism in Konya, the most conservative city in western Turkey:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/15/world/europe/15turkey.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

I know Kursat Turgut, the vice-rector of the university, having met him a couple of times when I gave talks or did some work with the English teachers at the university. An extremely cool person. He showed up to open a conference I spoke at one time in a bright yellow suit and just filled the room with energy. The article is correct about the difference he has made there in terms of enlivening student life and the cultural life of the city.

[postfundie]

[ddeubel]

Postfundie,

Don't follow you at all.....If you have something to say, say it.

I stand by my point that countries with large Muslim populations must find a way to empower politically these people through democratic means, in government. The countries I mentioned are trying different but equally pointed tacts. Egypt in particular, is not and will pay for this in the long term, if it doesn't change its hard ways.

Here is an article I read last month from CSM outlining this....

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0412/p06s01-wome.html

[jinju]

[ddeubel]

Jinju,

Post something of substance and of which there can actually be debate. Your whole MO is just "this is a pile of mamsy pamsy tolerance B.S. -- kill 'em all, they are evil". You are taking this down that same track.

As I've shown to be the case in a limited way, these countries reflect success as does Turkey and as will Israel if she decides on this too....this is the only path towards moderating the influence of religious based parties. This same evolution happened in America and Canada and Europe and will come to pass in the Middle East/North Africa and elsewhere.

Quite buzzing around and actually land and plant a seed and grow towards some truth...

DD

[Adventurer]

[jinju]

[Adventurer]

By SABRINA TAVERNISE
Published: May 15, 2007
KONYA, Turkey, May 12 � In the not too distant past here in Turkey�s religious heartland, women would not appear in public unless they were modestly dressed, a single woman was not able to rent an apartment on her own, and the mayor proposed segregating city buses by sex.

Skip to next paragraph
Multimedia
Audio & Photos
Turkey's Changing Society
Enlarge This Image

Johann Spanner for The New York Times
Factories in Konya�s industrial districts often build mosques for their workers. This one is under construction for a company called Molinos.
Fears of such restrictions, inflamed by secularist politicians, have led thousands of Turks to march in major cities in the past month. A political party with a past in Islamic politics led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has tried to capture the country�s highest secular post.

Once it succeeds, the secularists� argument goes, Turkey will be dragged back to an earlier era when Islam ran the state. [Another march drew a million people in Izmir on Sunday.]

But here in Konya, a leafy city on the plains of central Turkey, Mr. Erdogan�s party has done no such thing. In the paradox of modern Turkey, the party here has had a moderating influence, helping to open a guarded society and make it more flexible.

Konya is still deeply attached to its faith. Mosques are spread thickly throughout the city; there are as many as in Istanbul, which has five times the population. But in a part of the world where religion and politics have been a poisonous mix and cultural norms are conservative regardless of religion, it is an oasis: women here wear relatively revealing clothing, couples hold hands and bus segregation is a distant memory.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/15/world/europe/15turkey.html?hp

[jinju]

[postfundie]

[ddeubel]

[Woland]

It seems fairly obvious to me that jinju and postfundie did not read the article I linked (or could not understand it) and know little or nothing of Turkey.

Having lived there under three different secular-party-led governments and under the current AK government, I can only say that AK has done a superior job, and as the article noted, has moderated support for Islamic involvement in the state overall. I would prefer a secular government if a competent one could be had. I doubt that is the case, given the current leadership of those parties.

My sense at the moment is that AK will win the elections, with somewhere around 35-40% of the vote. Three secular parties stand a chance of passing the 10% threshold and getting seats in Parliament: the CHP (led by the sleazeball Baykal), ANAP (led by Erkan Mumcu, who I think will be prime minister someday, but not this time), and the stupidly fascist MHP (led by Devlet Bahceli; and I really mean it that these guys are stupid). If all these parties cross the threshold, they may combined be able to form a coalition stronger than AK in numbers. But it will be a repeat of the last secular led government, which wrecked the economy, only with the sleazoid Baykal in charge, instead of Bulent Ecevit, who was at least personally not corrupt.

My bet is that AK will win a majority. The wildcard in all this is that the Kurdish party in the southeast, which dominates local elections there, has decided not to run a party slate, but to allow it's candidates to run as independents. This will avoid the 10% threshold and give them a better chance of gaining seats. It means that potentially 5 to 10% of seats could go to Kurdish party members. Who they will ally themselves with is an open question. They do remember that 15 years ago the secularists declared war on them and tried to kill them. On the other hand, they are largely irreligious.

[postfundie]

[Adventurer]