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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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 Posted: Tue May 01, 2007 12:38 pm Post subject: Arctic melting 30 years ahead of forecast |
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I have tried to make the following points repeatedly:
1. Data is always behind the curve of reality, so whatever the data says now, the currently reality is always a little different. When discussing chaotic systems, one must keep this in mind because hitting a tipping point means massive increases in whatever it is you are measuring.
2. The IPCC reports have been **conservative estimates**, not radical ones, due to political influences and due to the nature of science: facts must be provable, not just knowable. To wit: the 7 - 22 inch sea level rise predicted in the reports this year did not include stats on polar ice melt.
3. Warming and cooling are chock full of positive reinforcements, i.e., one change affects other changes in a cascade effect so that change is magnified. In this case, the faster melt leads to greater heat absorption, which leads to greater melt which leads to...
This is all simple logic. I have stated for a long time that things are moving faster than the naysayers realize, or even some of the believers realize. If you are not factoring chaotic systems into your thinking, you are probably not fully understanding the problem. (Who was it that said Chaos theory was not applicable to GW?  )
Going, going...
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Arctic ice cap is melting much faster than expected and is now about 30 years ahead of predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a U.S. ice expert said on Tuesday.
This means the ocean at the top of the world could be free or nearly free of summer ice by 2020, three decades sooner than the global panel's gloomiest forecast of 2050.
...Scambos and co-authors of the study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, used satellite data and visual confirmation of Arctic ice to reach their conclusions, a far different picture than that obtained from computer models used by the scientists of the intergovernmental panel.
"The IPCC report was very careful, very thorough and cautious, so they erred on the side of what would certainly occur as opposed to what might occur," Scambos said in a telephone interview.
ICE-FREE SUMMER
...He discounted the notion that the sharp warming trend in the Arctic might be due to natural climate cycles. "There aren't many periods in history that are this dramatic in terms of natural variability," Scambos said.
He said he had no doubt that this was caused in large part by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which he said was the only thing capable of changing Earth on such a large scale over so many latitudes.
Asked what could fix the problem ...Scambos said a large volcanic eruption might hold Arctic ice melting at bay for a few years.
But he saw a continued warm-up as inevitable in the coming decades.
"Long-term and for the next 50 years, I think even the new report will agree that we're in for quite a bit of warming," Scambos said... |
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SPINOZA
Joined: 10 Jun 2005
Location: $eoul
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| Posted: Tue May 01, 2007 4:01 pm Post subject: |
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THE BENEFITS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY : http://www.ecolo.org/base/baseen.htm
The only clean, safe energy source capable of ensuring the continuation of our industrial civilization while protecting the environment.
by Bruno Comby, President of Environmentalists For Nuclear Energy |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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| Posted: Tue May 01, 2007 5:57 pm Post subject: |
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| I wonder how long it will be before we can say "I told you so" to those who deny global warming is happening. Maybe about the time the costal towns are under water. |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Tue May 01, 2007 9:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Milwaukiedave wrote: |
| I wonder how long it will be before we can say "I told you so" to those who deny global warming is happening. Maybe about the time the costal towns are under water. |
You mean the **rest** of the coastal towns... |
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pharflung
Joined: 29 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Wed May 02, 2007 10:12 pm Post subject: |
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Olive Grove Debuts as Weather Warms in England
by Rob Gifford
Morning Edition, May 2, 2007 � A small-acreage farmer has taken advantage of the warm weather in southwest England by planting a crop usually seen in the balmy Mediterranean — olives.
....
Listen to this NPR broadcast:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=9953542 |
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igotthisguitar
Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
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| Posted: Wed May 02, 2007 10:17 pm Post subject: |
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FIELDS OF HEMP will help to restore a lot of eco-integrity & serve to reverse global warming 
Shame on man's phony greed-driven prohibition! 
Thank-you creation  |
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pharflung
Joined: 29 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Thu May 03, 2007 3:33 am Post subject: |
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New York Times, May 2:
Feeling Warmth, Subtropical Plants Move North
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.... Already, some states are facing the possibility that the cherished local flora that has helped define their identities � the Ohio buckeye, the Kansas sunflower or the Mississippi magnolia � may begin to disappear within their borders and move north.
By the end of the century, the climate will no longer be favorable for the official state tree or flower in 28 states, according to �The Gardener�s Guide to Global Warming,� a report released last month by the National Wildlife Federation.
By the time of the annual Atlanta Dogwood Festival last month, the pale dogwood blooms had come and gone. Tara Dillard, a landscape designer and garden writer, said she now steers clients away from longtime favorites. �I�m writing a column about rhododendrons right now,� Ms. Dillard said. �And I think my conclusion is going to have to be not to plant rhododendrons. We have heated out of the rhododendron zone ....� |
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/03/science/03flowers.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=all
EFLtrainer:
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Asked what could fix the problem ...Scambos said a large volcanic eruption might hold Arctic ice melting at bay for a few years.
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Now there's a thought: more volcanic eruptions. One a month ought to do it. Nuke em, just to get things started. |
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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Julius
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
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| Posted: Mon May 07, 2007 10:08 pm Post subject: |
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Apparently unplugging all your electrical appliances whenever you leave the house saves a significant % of energy and carbon per year.
We can do little things like the above. We can also vote in leaders that pursue environmentally sound policies, such as restoring ecosystems to what they should be.
The effects of global warming would be much alleviated and absorbed if our natural habitats and ecosystems were healthy and functioning.
For example- coral reefs, forests, coastal swamps, etc all absorb carbon and regulate/act as protective buffers against natural disaster and climate change.
problem is that over the past century we've systematically destroyed these protective mechanisms in the sea and on land. Something like 95% of natural habitats in the developed world have been drained, built on or polluted in the past 140 years. We did not see their value then. The new orleans disaster for example could've been averted if they had simply left the huge sponge that was the louisiana swamps untouched. |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Sun May 20, 2007 8:27 pm Post subject: |
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Study: Southern Ocean saturated with CO2
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- The Southern Ocean around Antarctica is so loaded with carbon dioxide that it can barely absorb any more, so more of the gas will stay in the atmosphere to warm up the planet, scientists reported Thursday.
..."We thought we would be able to detect these only the second half of this century, say 2050 or so," she said. But data from 1981 through 2004 show the sink is already full of carbon dioxide. "So I find this really quite alarming."... |
I would like to reiterate: the IPCC reports this year have been conservative estimates. I would also like to encourage those parties interested to study up on the basic elements of Chaos Theory as it pertains to feedback loops, bifurcations and (un)predictability. If you don't understand this, you will be quite likely to underestimate what may be coming.
I have stated from the beginning of my involvement in the debate, whether here or elsewhere, that the science lags behind reality and that we are likely much further along than most realize. Everything coming out this year has reinforced this: accelerated Arctic melting; significant melt in Antarctica in 2005; the above info on the Southern Ocean carbon sink, etc.
Please keep in mind: the IPCC reports this year have not included any info or estimates of ice melt. None. It is vital this is understood if one wishes to have a clear understanding of what is being predicted. |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 3:08 pm Post subject: |
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Once again, simple logic tells you the IPCC reports had to be a step behind. All the info coming in indicates they were seriously off the mark. Things are further along than most realize.
Carbon Emissions Exceed Highest Assumptions Used in Climate Change Studies
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CO2 emissions from cars, factories, and power plants grew at an annual rate of 1.1 percent during the 1990s, according to the Global Carbon Project, which is a data clearinghouse set up in 2001 as a cooperative effort among UN-related groups and other scientific organizations. But from 2000 to 2004, CO2 emissions rates almost tripled to 3 percent a year - higher than any rate used in emissions scenarios for the reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
If the higher rate represents more than a blip, stabilizing emissions by 2100 will be more difficult than the latest UN reports indicate, some analysts say. And to avoid the most serious effects of global warming, significant cuts in CO2 emissions must begin sooner than the IPCC reports suggest. At the moment, no region of the world is "decarbonizing its energy supply," the analysis says. |
Higher than ANY rate used... even the worst case scenario... and that had 20 ft of sea level rise...
From another source:
CO2 up x3
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Even as the economies of the U.S. and European Union continued to grow, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) per car built, burger served or widget sold was on the decline. No more. "It appears that the carbon intensity of economic activity has stopped improving," says Chris Field, director of the Carnegie Institution of Washington's Department of Global Ecology in Stanford, Calif. "Each dollar of economic activity is requiring more rather than less carbon, which reverses a long-term trend."
In fact, the growth of CO2 emissions tripled between 2000 and 2004�growing by more than 3 percent per year�according to a new study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA. From 1990 to 1999, emissions growth had averaged a little over 1 percent per year. (Researchers based their findings on data from the U.S. Department of Energy, the United Nations Statistics Division and the International Monetary Fund.)
Carbon dioxide is responsible for trapping roughly 63 percent of the extra heat blamed for global warming. By 2005, emissions from man-made fossil fuel combustion had reached 7.9 billion metric tons per year (or 1.7 x 1013 pounds), according to the Global Carbon Project (GCP)�an Australia-based research consortium devoted to analyzing the problem. |
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The_Conservative
Joined: 15 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 4:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Julius wrote: |
Apparently unplugging all your electrical appliances whenever you leave the house saves a significant % of energy and carbon per year.
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So whenever you leave the house to go to work or for the weekend you should pull the cord on the fridge? |
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wannago
Joined: 16 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 6:07 pm Post subject: |
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| The_Conservative wrote: |
| Julius wrote: |
Apparently unplugging all your electrical appliances whenever you leave the house saves a significant % of energy and carbon per year.
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So whenever you leave the house to go to work or for the weekend you should pull the cord on the fridge? |
Oh come on. Don't you get it? You shouldn't even have a fridge! People like you don't deserve to eat or, at best, deserve to only eat rotting food. Let Algore run around in his private jets, but YOU...you should unplug everything when you leave your house. That is, of course, if the Left deems you should be allowed to have electricity or even a dwelling. Damn you neocons! |
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postfundie
Joined: 28 May 2004
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2007 8:12 pm Post subject: |
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| I just saw a report about Greenland on CNN....that ice is melting quickly up there....It'll be a good place to live. |
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