Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Morton]

You guys certainly know your stuff.

Is China really a threat? They don't have that many nukes do they? Surely America could show them who's boss?

I read that China has under 200 nukes. The UK has more than China.

And who's side would Japan be on if the poop hits the fan?

[darkhorse_NZ]

Yeh, China's a threat, because anyone who isn't a firm and trusted ally is. I'm not sure if China has sophisticated delivery systems for its nukes yet though. Though it has been engaged in a lot of force modernisation and huge increases in military budget including a lot of under the table expenditure.

[dmbfan]

[darkhorse_NZ]

[ajgeddes]

[Morton]

Would you like to expand on that ajgeddes?

[dmbfan]

[The Perfect Cup of Coffee]

[kingtout]

[Wangja]

Well, interesting to see that some put so much faith in 29,000 US forces, including non-combatants, to swing the balance and make the 685,000 of the SK swing to victory over 1,075,000 of the north.

There are many reasons for the US to remain. THe fact that the war is still technially a war, as someone said, is reason enough. The projection of US interests, many of them high-minded and laudable, is another.

Defence of SK is probably one, but not that high on the list.

[ryanbonner]

The only reason U.S. troops are still here is purely political. They serve only as a tripwire to force the U.S. to get involved in any military conflict between the north and south. If NK attacked, the 30,000 U.S. soldiers here now would be killed, as they are not meant to be able to really fight back facing the kind of force NK can bring. Once that happened though, the news of U.S. soldiers dead would be splashed all over the news in America, thus thrusting the U.S. immediately into another conflict.

My take is there's no point for them to be here at this point. It's all just posturing. Americans understand the deep alliance between SK and the U.S., and it doesn't matter if U.S. soldiers are killed, if NK attacks, they'd fully support the U.S. sending in its troops (although if that happened anytime soon, we might be sending over our grandparents and middle school kids).

[SuperFly]

HERE'S WHY!

[Guri Guy]

Anyone who thinks North Korea would have any chance of winning a war with South Korea is living in dreamland.

The Mythical North Korean Threat

The Korean conflict is over, but Cold War warriors refuse to accept this reality because they need a �threat.� In 1994, the Military-Industrialist worked the media and politicians into a war hysteria which almost caused President Clinton to order air strikes in North Korea. In his book �Hazardous Duty,� retired Colonel David Hackworth describes his trip to Korea in which he uncovered this phony threat. Fortunately, former President Jimmy Carter heard the war drums and flew to North Korea as a private citizen and ended the phantom crisis.

When Pentagon officials talk about the need to maintain a �two-war� capability, they often refer to Korea. This is absurd since South Korea can crush North Korea without American help. North Korea�s million-man army may look impressive on paper, but remember that Iraq had a million-man army, which also had modern equipment, combat experience, and plenty of fuel.

In contrast, North Korean soldiers suffer from malnutrition and rarely train due to a scarcity of fuel and ammo. Most North Korean soldiers could not attack because they are needed to defend the entire DMZ and coastal approaches (they remember the 1950 landing at Inchon) while entire divisions must remain throughout North Korea to fend off heliborne offensives, food riots, and probable coups.

On the other hand, the entire 700,000 man South Korean active duty army can be devoted to the defense of Seoul. The modern South Korean army is backed by over 5,000,000 well-trained reservists who can be called to duty in hours. South Korea has twice the population of the North, thirty times its economic power, and spends three times more on its military each year. South Korean military equipment is first class whereas most of the North Korean military equipment is over 30 years old and much is inoperable due to a lack of maintenance. If war broke out, South Korea has a massive industrial capacity and $94 billion in foreign currency reserves to sustain a war, while North Korea has no industry and no money. As a result, South Korea is roughly five times more powerful than North Korea.

If North Korea insanely attacked, the South Koreans would fight on mountainous and urban terrain which heavily favors defense, and complete air superiority would shoot up anything the North Koreans put on the road. Assuming the North Koreans could start up a thousand of their old tanks and armored vehicles, they cannot advance through the mountainous DMZ. The South Koreans have fortified, mined, and physically blocked all avenues through these mountains, and it would take North Korean infantry and engineers weeks to clear road paths while under fire.

The North Korean military could gain a few thousand meters with human wave assaults into minefields and concrete fortifications. However, these attacks would bog down from heavy casualties, and a lack of food and ammo resupply. Fighting would be bloody as thousands of South Korean and American troops and civilians suffer from North Korean artillery and commando attacks. Nevertheless, the North Korean army would be unable to breakthrough or move supplies forward. Even if North Korea magically broke through, all military analysts scoff at the idea that the North Koreans could bridge large rivers or move tons of supplies forward while under attack from American airpower.

It is important to remember that the last Korean war involved Chinese forces supported by North Koreans with the latest Soviet equipment and supplies. China and Russia no longer aid North Korea and trade openly with South Korea. Thousands of Chinese soldiers guard the Yalu River to prevent crossings by starving North Koreans. North Korean soldiers no longer train for war, but spend most hours harvesting crops, while their old aircraft and ancient tanks sit idle from a lack of fuel and parts. In 1999, Lt. Gen. Patrick Hughes, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told Congress that discipline in the North Korean army had collapsed, and that refugees report soldiers stealing food at gun point. Nighttime satellite pictures reveal few lights in the North because of a lack of electricity.

http://www.g2mil.com/korea.htm

North Korea has less than a 2 day fuel supply to wage war. Certainly they could devastate Seoul but that would be about it. Any chance of military victory that requires the looting of food and fuel in order to sustain their offensive is bound to fail. South Korea is more than capable of defending itself and winning a war versus North Korea.

[riley]

ajgeddes wrote:

[horang]

1. The presense of the US Army makes Kim Jung Il and the North think twice before they invade the South, and of course makes us feel very safe.

2. Behind N.K. is China, buidling up the strongest military in the world and threatening the neighboring countries like S.K. and Japan. The US army plays a key role in balancing the power in far east.