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Gatsby
Joined: 09 Feb 2007
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Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:18 pm Post subject: What me worry? Worry. |
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"Markets are imploding," Sal Morreale of Cantor Fitzgerald said from his trading desk in Los Angeles. "A lot of people have been calling for this for a long time. You're finally starting to see reality." |
If you are planning to go back to the States to look for work any time soon, you might want to pay attention.
Dow Dives More Than 300 Points; S& P and Nasdaq Also Plunge
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By Tomoeh Murakami Tse and Frank Ahrens
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, July 27, 2007; D01
The U.S. stock market yesterday suffered its second worst day of 2007, with the Dow Jones industrial average plunging more than 300 points as anxiety over housing and increasing evidence of weakness in the lending market spilled over into stocks.
Investors fled from almost every type of stock, hunkering down with U.S. Treasurys and other safer investments.
It was the biggest drop in stocks since easy access to credit, the economy's engine in recent years, began showing signs of drying up several months ago. The problems started when investors in securities backed by risky mortgages were hurt by the housing downturn earlier this year, making them worried about other debt-related products such as those that finance corporate takeovers.... |
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/26/AR2007072600397.html?hpid=topnews
Then again, economic woes in the U.S. could cause a ripple effect across the rest of the world.
NY Times:
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July 27, 2007
Global Markets Tumble as Credit Worries Deepen
By FLOYD NORRIS and VIKAS BAJAJ
Stock prices tumbled on Wall Street and across much of the rest of the world yesterday. They were driven sharply lower by worries over slowing economic growth in the United States and worsening borrowing conditions that could make everything from huge corporate buyouts to buying a new home more difficult.
Major stock market gauges � including the Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor�s 500-stock index � were down more than 2 percent.
It was the worst one-day decline on Wall Street since markets plunged worldwide in late February after an investing scare in Shanghai, and it occurred amid the biggest volume of trading on the New York Stock Exchange in five years. Losses were comparable throughout Europe, and larger in many developing countries.
�The preconditions for a shock are in place,� said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody�s Economy.com. �Until very recently investors were very nonchalant about risks.�
Stock markets have been volatile in recent weeks. Continued strong profits for many companies and an economic boom in Asia have helped push oil prices higher. Meanwhile, however, there are various signs of weakness in the American economy and new difficulties in borrowing for many homeowners and companies that are highly leveraged or have poor credit.... |
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/27/business/27stox.html?hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1185516660-WN1ay1Ebr989/0VdYeUF9g&pagewanted=all
And CNN:
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Washout for the Dow
Blue chip index tumbles 311, its 2nd worst day of the year, on credit market, housing worries.
By David Ellis, CNNMoney.com staff writer
July 26 2007: 5:23 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A tidal wave of worry about housing and credit markets swept over Wall Street Thursday, sending the Dow industrials tumbling 311 points in its second-biggest point loss of the year.
"Uncertainty is not what the market likes," said Todd Clark, director of stock trading at Nollenberger Capital Partners Inc. in San Francisco. "Sell first and find out later - that's pretty much what happened today."
A glimpse of the Dow Jones industrial average after the 30-stock index plunged over 400 points Thursday afternoon amid fears about credit and housing markets.
Money Magazine's Eric Schurenberg answers the question, where is the best place to put your money long term? (April 20)
Play video
The 30-share Dow (down 311.50 to 13,473.57, Charts) plunged nearly 450 points earlier in the session before moving off its lows and closing down about 2.3 percent. The Dow sank 416 points on Feb. 27 on worries about slowing global growth.
The broader S&P 500 (down 35.43 to 1,482.66, Charts) tumbled 2.3 percent while the tech-laden Nasdaq (down 48.83 to 2,599.34, Charts) fell 1.8 percent. |
http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/26/markets/markets_445/index.htm?cnn=yes
I suppose Bush will propose more tax cuts for the rich as the answer. |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:25 pm Post subject: |
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Aww dude. It was a great post until your last sentence.
Bush can't fix this. Too much credit was pumped into the economy. It has been the cause of bubbles from America to Dubai, Singapore and China. We had the boom, and here comes the inflation. |
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Sincinnatislink

Joined: 30 Jan 2007 Location: Top secret.
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Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:53 pm Post subject: |
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Actually, this is good news for those of us paying off school loans . . . |
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Gatsby
Joined: 09 Feb 2007
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Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:45 pm Post subject: |
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BJWD:
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Bush can't fix this. |
NSS.
Bush wouldn't even make a competent Maytag repairman.
The question is whether the U.S. is headed into a recession. And whether the stock market will cause it.
After all the advances in the stock prices, the market could have a 10 percent decline, a textbook correction, and it would be healthy. In a healthy economy. Which it's not.
The U.S. economy is more like a person with TB on crutches and dialysis waiting for kidney and heart transplants. A gust of wind could blow him over flat on his face. Tnen he would need a nose job, too. But he will probably fall over, regardless.
Americans might not realize this, but foreign investors are no fools. Why do you think the dollar is sinking? |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 12:06 am Post subject: |
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I don't think it is that bad. Not even close, really.
There will be a period of lower growth and higher inflation. It won't be a significant recession, in my opinion. Some places will be worse off than others. But the lower dollar will help reinvigorate exporters which will offset some of the unemployment from the housing bubble bursting.
Or so I hope, as I'm moving to the USA shorting. Miami too, where the bubble was worst. On the good side, I guess, I can get a nice condo on the cheap. |
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Alyallen

Joined: 29 Mar 2004 Location: The 4th Greatest Place on Earth = Jeonju!!!
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Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 1:31 am Post subject: |
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Sincinnatislink wrote: |
Actually, this is good news for those of us paying off school loans . . . |
How so?
Lower interest rates or something? |
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Gatsby
Joined: 09 Feb 2007
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Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 4:24 pm Post subject: |
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Washington Post:
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Wall Street Extends Slide; Dow Drops 200
By TIM PARADIS
The Associated Press
Friday, July 27, 2007; 6:35 PM
NEW YORK -- Wall Street extended its steep decline Friday, propelling the Dow Jones industrials down more than 500 points over two days after investors gave in to mounting concerns that borrowing costs would climb for both companies and homeowners. It was the worst week for the Dow and the Standard & Poor's 500 index in five years.
Investors cast aside a stronger-than-expected read on the economy and maintained negative sentiment that dominated Thursday when the market shuddered amid worries over the U.S. mortgage and corporate lending markets. Investors globally took flight from equities, shifting cash into safer investments in Treasurys.
The pullback Thursday and Friday wiped out $526.1 million in shareholder wealth from the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
Although the market has often rebounded after a steep drop _ and has done so in recent weeks _ investors appeared unable Friday to set aside their concerns about a weakening housing market and tightening credit....
Although the GDP reading might have reassured investors that the economy was more than holding up even with soaring fuel prices, it could also raise the possibility that the Federal Reserve, ever vigilant about inflation, might put off a rate cut or even raise rates. Higher rates would exacerbate the market's intensifying concerns about credit.
"I think people are really cautious right now. We're seeing the convergence of a whole host of sort of unrelated or only slightly related issues," said Randy Frederick, director of derivatives at Charles Schwab & Co. He contends market volatility will remain as investors sort through issues such as the availability of credit for corporate buyouts, soured subprime mortgages and rising energy prices....
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NY Times:
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In Asian trading today, few markets were spared from the downturn. South Korea�s Kospi index closed 4.1 percent lower after the biggest sell-off in three years. Also, the Taiex, in Taiwan, fell 4.2 percent; the Singapore Straits Times index fell 3.2 percent; the Nikkei 225 Stock Average in Japan fell 2.4 percent; and the Hong Kong Hang Seng index fell 2.8 percent. The China stock indexes were mainly flat.... |
Korea Herald:
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Seoul shares plunge on massive foreign sell-off
South Korean stocks traded sharply lower late Friday morning as foreign investors went on a selling spree in line with overnight losses in U.S. markets, analysts said, according to Yonhap News.
The benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) plunged
61.75 points, or 3.14 percent, to 1,901.79 as of 11:20 a.m.
"Taking a cue from a pullback in U.S. stocks, foreign investors dumped a net 570 billion won worth of shares, outweighing bargain hunting by institutions and retail investors," Yonhap quoted Han Yo-seop, an analyst at Daewoo Securities, as saying....
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desultude

Joined: 15 Jan 2003 Location: Dangling my toes in the Persian Gulf
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Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 4:39 pm Post subject: |
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BJWD wrote: |
I don't think it is that bad. Not even close, really.
There will be a period of lower growth and higher inflation. It won't be a significant recession, in my opinion. Some places will be worse off than others. But the lower dollar will help reinvigorate exporters which will offset some of the unemployment from the housing bubble bursting.
Or so I hope, as I'm moving to the USA shorting. Miami too, where the bubble was worst. On the good side, I guess, I can get a nice condo on the cheap. |
Yeah, $400,000 condos are now going for $300,000. Unfortunately, that is a small one bedroom that ten years ago went for $100,000. There is not enough correction, short of a depression, to bring prices in Miami back to this universe. Oh, yeah, and one of my friends has had his "maintenance" fees (monthly) go from $200 plus to $400 plus. Oh, and property taxes have just bone up, in spite of the decline of the value of property. And don't even think about the price of hurricane and flood insurance.
Unless you have a trust fund or have been seriously side-lining dealing illegal products, you will be hard pressed to find anything decent for a decent price down here.
The collapse of the Florida housing market happened for these reasons. Foreclosure rates in the state are now up about 145% over a year ago.
I suppose rents might eventually go down. |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 6:27 am Post subject: |
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Bloomberg on the Miami housing market:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a4qa.rYTWyYA&refer=news
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July 20 (Bloomberg) -- In the middle of the biggest glut of condominiums in more than 30 years, Miami developers keep on building.
The oversupply will force prices down as much as 30 percent, the worst decline since the 1970s, and help push Florida's economy into recession as early as October, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at West Chester, Pennsylvania-based Moody's Economy.com, who owns a home in Vero Beach, Florida.
``Florida is the epicenter for all the problems that exist in the housing industry,'' said Lewis Goodkin, president of Goodkin Consulting Corp. and a property adviser in Miami for the past 30 years, who also foresees a recession. ``The problems we have now are unprecedented and a lot of people will get burnt.'' |
I'm a tad nervous to be moving to that city now... We will be in Lauderdale I think.
Hows life in Miami? To be honest, I haven't heard much good.. |
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desultude

Joined: 15 Jan 2003 Location: Dangling my toes in the Persian Gulf
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Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:41 am Post subject: |
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BJWD wrote: |
Bloomberg on the Miami housing market:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a4qa.rYTWyYA&refer=news
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July 20 (Bloomberg) -- In the middle of the biggest glut of condominiums in more than 30 years, Miami developers keep on building.
The oversupply will force prices down as much as 30 percent, the worst decline since the 1970s, and help push Florida's economy into recession as early as October, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at West Chester, Pennsylvania-based Moody's Economy.com, who owns a home in Vero Beach, Florida.
``Florida is the epicenter for all the problems that exist in the housing industry,'' said Lewis Goodkin, president of Goodkin Consulting Corp. and a property adviser in Miami for the past 30 years, who also foresees a recession. ``The problems we have now are unprecedented and a lot of people will get burnt.'' |
I'm a tad nervous to be moving to that city now... We will be in Lauderdale I think.
Hows life in Miami? To be honest, I haven't heard much good.. |
Damn! I love it here, and am pissed at the bad press it gets. There are few places more beautiful, naturally, IMHO, and I have been to a few places in my time. The high crime rate of the 1980s is pretty much history (it is a city, though, so there is crime). It is one of the most effortlessly integrated places I have lived, although there are still plenty of racial problems.
It is not for everyone- if hearing a variety of foreign languages being spoken everywhere, and English is just one, and not the dominant one, of the many, bothers you, it is not your place.
Not only are a large variety of languages spoken, a large variety of lifestyles are lived in the open- from Cuban Santeria to every possible permutation of sexual identity.
Learning to speak some Spanish isn't optional- the most reactionary troglodyte here peppers their English with Spanish with no self-consciousness. Spanglish is the spoken language. I found myself recently having an exchange with a Puerto Rican (raised in Connecticut!) that I work with. I realized after that we were speaking sentences back ans forth in English and Spanish (both of us English, and both of us Spanish) unintentionally- it is just the language. Of course, if you try hard you find an English only enclave, but you do have to buy groceries sometime!
For breakfast today I had a ripe mango from the backyard tree. I used lemongrass, ginger and fresh avocado, all from the yard, in last night's dinner. We even have fresh pineapples and bananas- the little hyper-sweet varieties, unlike the Dole fruit on steroids variety.
And there is a huge cultural difference, by the way, between Miami and Ft. Lauderdale. Miami is urban and complex and rich, Ft. Lauderdale can never overcome its suburban roots. There is really no city per se, just suburban sprawl from the ocean to the Everglades. I would best compare Miami and Ft. Lauderdale to Seoul and Daegu.
If you have lived as an expat, you can do fine in Miami. My only caveat is the price of housing, but, trust me, Ft. Lauderdale is only marginally better in that regard. The white flight from Miami has created a boom of its own in Ft. Lauderdale. Housing in South Florida is pretty uniformly a problem. Even though the prices are falling, they will have to fall a long ways for a long time to approximate "reasonable". The decline in the market has also meant, as the Bloomberg article states, a serious decline in the local economy. A friend of mine is closing her store today. The guy I am working for closed one of his two stores. He has laid off half of his employees.
Come to Miami (not Ft. Lauderdale, IMHO) if you have a way to make money and if you can handle the housing mess. Ft. Lauderdale has all of the same problems and is not nearly as interesting a place to live. |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 5:45 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks for the reply!
I figured that I would have a better chance to find work in F.Lauderdale, given that I don't speak Spanish. Of course, I'll start studying Spanish upon arriavl or sooner. I'll be attending uni there and have free access to the school's language programs. That should help.
Hows the nightlife? Can you describe to me the "racial problems" you speak of? Any neighborhoods you would recommended us to live in. My girl's family live in Penbrook Pines in Mirimar. I'd like to be a tad closer to either the beach or the city (either FL or Miami) for commutes stake. |
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dogshed

Joined: 28 Apr 2006
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Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 5:57 pm Post subject: |
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Alyallen wrote: |
Sincinnatislink wrote: |
Actually, this is good news for those of us paying off school loans . . . |
How so?
Lower interest rates or something? |
A better exchange rate. Just imagine if you could by a dollar for one won.
That won't happen but if I can by a dollar for 700 won that would be nice. |
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desultude

Joined: 15 Jan 2003 Location: Dangling my toes in the Persian Gulf
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Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 6:19 pm Post subject: |
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BJWD wrote: |
Thanks for the reply!
I figured that I would have a better chance to find work in F.Lauderdale, given that I don't speak Spanish. Of course, I'll start studying Spanish upon arriavl or sooner. I'll be attending uni there and have free access to the school's language programs. That should help.
Hows the nightlife? Can you describe to me the "racial problems" you speak of? Any neighborhoods you would recommended us to live in. My girl's family live in Penbrook Pines in Mirimar. I'd like to be a tad closer to either the beach or the city (either FL or Miami) for commutes stake. |
As for the language, really, everyone who needs to speaks English- maybe not as a first choice, but it is not a problem to get things done in English.
Of course, work depends on what you are looking for. There is surely ESL work in Miami.
Pembroke Pines and Miramar are pretty far west- out where I grew up, actually.
Racial problems are the same as they are in any urban area in the U.S., perhaps complicated by the fact that the dominant group is Latino. In general, blacks do better in Miami than in a lot of places, as they are a large part of the culture. By "racial problems" I guess I mostly mean some intransigent racism on the part of the old white population, and structural poverty compounded by the influx of very poor, but honest and hard-working Haitians.
Miami is a complex stew- but one of the few really interesting places in the U.S. |
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bonanzabucks
Joined: 09 Jun 2007 Location: NYC
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Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:41 pm Post subject: |
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Desultude covered Miami so well! I was in Miami last month with my friend to check it out to see if I could live there in the future. I loved it there! But actually, not sure I could live there as a single guy.
Anyways, Miami Beach is really stunning with outstanding architecture (the art deco buildings are truly amazing and I love the architecture of the houses) and really stunning women. However, I was disappointed with the restaurants and the quality of the food and service, which really pale in comparison to NY. I heard that rent in Miami Beach is really high (comparable to NYC, even!). But, of course, you can�t beat the beach, the babes and the weather. One thing, though. I found Miami�s social scene to be really stuffy. People who lived there told me that it�s really hard to meet true friends and you really have to be careful of people scamming you. Not to mention, the women there are really shallow and most of the scene is a �bling scene�. If you don�t have the �bling�, you won�t get anywhere with women down there.
I thought the city of Miami itself was a little dumpy. Downtown had some really nice condos and they can�t seem to stop building them, no matter how bad the market is. Miami has the second largest number of construction cranes of any city in the world. Dubai is first.
Miami can be dangerous too. One guy down there told me that you really have to be careful with some areas. Liberty City is the worst. It�s not like Singapore when it comes to crime.
Another thing that annoyed me about Miami was the fact that it would rain at 2:30 every afternoon. Without fail, there would be a massive thunderstorm. Man, that was annoying.
I can�t comment about Ft. Lauderdale because I�ve never been there. West Palm Beach is north of FLL and it�s very nice, but very suburban and lots of retirees living there.
Hmmm�As for the racial make-up, mostly Hispanic and almost no Asians. Spanish consist of primarily Cubans, but big Dominican, Colombian and Puerto Rican communities too. Also a HUGE Haitian population. And also, many expats from the UK, South Africa, France (which surprised me), Israel and Germany. Oh, and we can�t forget the Canadians! Lots of Canucks there too! So very diverse except with regards to Asians.
Now, for work. The main five industries in Miami are financial services, tourism, fashion, media and real estate. Real estate has tanked. Tourism will always be big. Media is totally Latin American and fashion is for the rich and famous.
As for financial services, it�s catered towards the Latin American market. The biggest Latin American banks are based there. I�d say Miami is essentially a money laundering place for rich South Americans because they�re afraid of leaders like Lula, Kirchner and Chavez. Actually, because of this, I kinda foresee the Miami real estate market picking up a bit as these rich tycoons always go to Miami and they generally invest in real estate. Lately, there have been a lot of Venezuelans moving there and I suspect this number will rise as Chavez tightens control of his country even more. So, to get a job in financial services and banking there, you NEED to speak Spanish. It�s absolutely essential. Don�t even bother applying if you don�t.
Cost of living is generally cheaper than NY. There is no state income tax. I generally compare cost of living places by the prices of packs of cigarettes (I�m a smoker, sue me). Miami is pretty cheap (NOT Miami Beach, though) in that regard.
As for transportation, you need a car. Public transportation in Miami is awful and I heard dangerous. They do have a metro rail, but it�s not that extensive. Traffic is really bad too. Definitely worse than NY.
Damn, all this Miami talk is making miss the place!
So, why you thinking of going to school there? And when you planning to go? You really want to leave Singapore for South Florida? |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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Posted: Sun Jul 29, 2007 12:26 am Post subject: |
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Great reply BB,
I'll send you an email with more specific info..
Maybe desultude can help too,
I'm likely heading into financial services, but don't speak Spanish. Which is exactly why I was going to head to Lauderdale for work. I understood it to be more Anglo. I plan to attend either law school or an MBA part-time in Miami as well (either FIU or UM).
Am I going to find it exceedingly difficult to enter financial services without Spanish ability? I plan to do to the CFP certification asap and work at that while in Law/business school.
? |
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