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markhan
Joined: 02 Aug 2006
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 Posted: Fri Sep 07, 2007 2:43 am Post subject: |
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| mercury wrote: |
| Morton wrote: |
Unposter: you made alot of good points. But is America not looking to downsize it's presence in South Korea? Maybe thats due to the fact, which you pointed out, that the US is getting less and less from South Korea.
The US military presence has saved Korea alot of money so i can see why you asked "Who is the fool?"
The US will hold on to South Korea for as long as it can, but in a war South Korea is *beep*. Japan and Australia are islands. A major benefit in wars that happened in the past (look at the UK). But Korea is stuck in the middle. History might have a funny way of repeating itself regarding Korea.
After all Korea is the little man stuck in the middle. The US can only protect him so much. |
I bet that if I got into a time machine, made a trip to seoul in the year 2107, I would see all the signs written in Chinese. |
Why? As philosopher Russell once noted Chinese written language is rather "primitive." Even some Chinese admits that the difficulty of Chinese characters is a major hindrance to general education. |
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Troll_Bait
Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Location: [T]eaching experience doesn't matter much. -Lee Young-chan (pictured)
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| Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 4:49 am Post subject: |
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| Unposter wrote: |
Do you think that it would be in the U.S.'s interest to isolate South Korea or to let it be taken over by the Chinese, regardless of how "ungrateful" the South Koreans seem?
No.
There is an American - South Korean alliance and the U.S. has promised to defend South Korea if attacked.
Just because South Korea is not part of an alliance with Japan (Hmm...Hmm) and Australia does not mean they don't have agreements with the U.S.
If anything South Korea has the U.S. just where they want them, the U.S. more worried about South Korea than South Korea is worried about the U.S. South Korea gets almost everything it wants from the U.S. and the U.S. is getting less and less from South Korea.
Who is the fool?
But, it has to do with strategy. South Korea now believes that the U.S. needs its bases in South Korea more than South Korea needs U.S. bases in South Korea.
No matter how arrogent South Korea is to the U.S., the U.S. won't let the Chinese get their hands on it. South Korea knows it and is playing this card well. People keep saying Roh Moo-hyun is a fool. I say he is so far ahead of everyone, they can't keep up with what he is thinking. And, he ain't spill'n the beans either about his plans.
Being the policeman of the world is only going to keep giving America more and more problems, though I'd rather have the U.S. do it than any other country in the world.
Anyway, this article is just some conservative fantasy that has little to do with the reality of South Korean politics. |
You make some good points. I'd just like to point out a few things.
If you've ever played chess, you know that sometimes two of your pieces come under simultaneous attack, and you have to choose one to save and one to sacrifice. Wars are not like boxing matches, with two participants each throwing one blow at a time. They're more like riots, with several participants, many things happening at once, and a lot of chaos. I'm sure that South Korea is considered to be of lesser importance than, say, Japan or Australia. Even Taiwan might be a higher priority to the U.S. (less anti-American, in a more defensible position as it's an island, etc.). And take a look at this entry from the ROK Drop blog.
http://rokdrop.com/2007/07/20/still-no-hawks-for-you/
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Still No Hawks for You
Two year ago the South Korean government tried to puchase the Global Hawks and was denied. I guess if you fail once try,try again:
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South Korea said Wednesday it is still seeking to buy unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from the United States despite Washington�s previous refusal to sell it the high-altitude spy plane. The defence ministry plans to acquire four Global Hawk UAVs by 2012, a spokesman told AFP. The 45-million-dollar craft can cruise at an altitude of 19,500 metres (more than 64,000 feet) for up to 42 hours and identify 30-centimetre (12-inch) objects on the ground.
South Korea is seeking the planes partly so it can keep a better watch over North Korea, as it takes over greater responsibility for its defence from its ally the United States.
But its request for the Global Hawks was rejected in 2005. The US says that the Missile Technology Control Regime, which covers the unmanned plane, should be revised first. |
So why was the Global Hawks denied to South Korea two years ago you may ask? Unsurprisingly, this is why:
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| The U.S. is thought to have rejected the request for fear that the core technology might be leaked. Some are known to be worried that confidential information collected on North Korea using the Global Hawk might be leaked to the North. |
It is pretty much no secret in the military community that anything given or sold to South Korea ends up being leaked to the North and nothing in the last two years has changed this fact. If anything trust between the US and Korea has decreased even more.
Look at who the US did sell the Global Hawk to:
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| The Defense Acquisition Program Administration said, While continuously requesting the U.S to sell us the Global Hawk, we are also developing a domestic mid-altitude UAV system. However, the mid-altitude UAV system development will be possibly completed around 2015. On the other hand, Japan received consent to buy the Global Hawk last June, and it has already secured budgets and commenced preparations to introduce the Global Hawk into its system. |
This is probably the main reason why South Korea wants the Global Hawk, simply because Japan has them. |
It's pretty damning. The U.S. is refusing to give South Korea its advanced weaponry, which demonstrates that they don't trust South Korea to the point that they will not enable them to be better defended. In other words, while they would prefer not to lose South Korea, it appears to be expendable.
P.S. Sorry for the delay in responding, but I had to find the ROK Drop post to back up what I'm saying. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 6:31 am Post subject: |
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I agree that Korea is in a crappy position. It can't really do much more than offer a position for a strong enemy to attack one of Korea's neighbor.
I also don't think Roh's ambition of being a balancer is a viable position. If Korea is strong enough to be a balancer, then it represents a threat to China (or Japan).
Koreans bring up the example of Switzerland, but that is an out-dated model. ICBMs didn't exist when the Germans, French and Italians were trying to get at each other's throats. And I'm also not sure how valid the idea of being an island is anymore, either.
A couple of years ago I read something that said the US strategists assumed Korea would side with China in any conflict between the two. I don't remember who said it or where I read it, but I think it is logical. It is even more believeable now that China is Korea's #1 trading partner.
I do not think it is inevitable that the US and China go head to head. But some degree of rivalry is inevitable. I'm not sure alliances are necessary--either national interests coincide or they don't, and alliances don't alter that. As China grows, Russia inevitably will become insecure, so there is room to maneuver there. Both may resent US predominance, but the Russians can't help but feel nervous about Chinese eyes looking north.
I don't think Korea really has much choice. If she wants to maintain some independence, her only hope is an anti-Chinese stance with a profile high enough that others will defend her--but not so high that her trade with China is harmed. Anything less and she just returns to her Little China role that failed her in the past. Goodbye, hangook mal. |
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Troll_Bait
Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Location: [T]eaching experience doesn't matter much. -Lee Young-chan (pictured)
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 5:01 am Post subject: |
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http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2007/09/116_10254.html
The present Korean administration has infuriated its own military.
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| Cheong Wa Dae is allegedly drawing up plans for a $20 billion package of new economic initiatives, and it postponed the Hwarang military exercise in order to create ``a more positive atmosphere.'' Additionally, Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung infuriated the South Korean military by offering a redrawing of the Northern Limit Line, which serves as the Koreas' maritime boundary. |
And more evidence of the strained relationship between the U.S. and S. Korea.
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The Bush administration should counsel Roh that unilateral, uncoordinated diplomacy benefits Pyongyang to the detriment of the international community and risks straining Seoul's bilateral relationship with Washington.
South Korea informed the U.S. only a few hours prior to the announcement, signaling that Seoul is freelancing on peninsular issues and not coordinating with its key ally.
South Korean officials had assured Washington that its engagement efforts would remain ``one step behind the six-party talks process,'' but they now appear to be many steps ahead. U.S. officials have privately commented that restraining Seoul from getting too far ahead of its allies is a concern and a challenge. |
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