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igotthisguitar

Joined: 08 Apr 2003 Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
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Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 6:37 pm Post subject: Coincidence Theories |
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Justin Trudeau & Sophie Gregoire Have Son
Born Same Day As Pierre Trudeau
Thu Oct 18, 4:29 PM
By The Canadian Press
MONTREAL - Justin Trudeau and Sophie Gregoire celebrated the birth of their first child Thursday, on what would also have been former prime minister Pierre Trudeau's 88th birthday.
Xavier James Trudeau bounced into the world shortly after midnight weighing nine pounds, two ounces.
Pierre Trudeau was born Oct. 18, 1919. He died in 2000
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/justin_trudeau_dad |
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igotthisguitar

Joined: 08 Apr 2003 Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
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Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 6:42 pm Post subject: |
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A composite image shows, at right a bonfire which locals believe resembles the silhouette of late Pope John Paul II making a blessing, in a picture taken by amateur photographer Grzegorz Lukasik, atop Matyska mountain in southern Poland, on April 2, 2007, during a vigil marking the second anniversary of the Polish pope's death. Data on Lukasik's digital camera says the picture was taken at 21.37:30, exactly the hour when the pope died.
Picture at left shows Pope John Paul II waving to faithfuls as he leaves the Vatican, in this Aug. 8, 2001 file photo |
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Manner of Speaking

Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 6:51 pm Post subject: |
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Coincidences, but where are the coincidence "theories"?
Picture 1:
Big deal. My dad died on the same date as my paternal grandmother. Chances of this happening: 1/365.
Picture 2:
Where is the coincidence. Presumably, John Paul II was not standing and waving at the moment of his death. And, in the film roll from which the fire picture was taken, there are probably at least 24 to 36 other pictures of the fire, where the fire doesn't look like a person waving. |
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Manner of Speaking

Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 6:56 pm Post subject: |
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Picture of Heinrich Himmler, 1938.
Picture of Bashar Assad, 2006.
Coincidence?
Um, yes.
Significance: none. |
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cbclark4

Joined: 20 Aug 2006 Location: Masan
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Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:06 pm Post subject: |
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John Adams and Thomas Jefferson both died on July 4, 1846
James Monroe died on July 4, 1831. |
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cbclark4

Joined: 20 Aug 2006 Location: Masan
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Manner of Speaking

Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:14 pm Post subject: |
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Conspiracy theories are often not taken seriously, because so many conspiracy theories - almost by definition - lack readily verifiable evidence. This raises the question of what mechanisms might exist in popular culture that lead to the invention and subsequent dissemination of unsubstantiated theories. In pursuit of answers to that question, conspiracy theory has become a topic of interest for sociologists, psychologists and experts in folklore since at least the 1960s, when the assassination of US President John F. Kennedy eventually provoked an unprecedented public response directed against the official version of the case as expounded in the Report of the Warren Commission.
According to Mintz, conspiracism denotes: "belief in the primacy of conspiracies in the unfolding of history":
"Conspiracism serves the needs of diverse political and social groups in America and elsewhere. It identifies elites, blames them for economic and social catastrophes, and assumes that things will be better once popular action can remove them from positions of power. As such, conspiracy theories do not typify a particular epoch or ideology".
Throughout human history, political and economic leaders genuinely have been the cause of enormous amounts of death and misery, and they sometimes have engaged in conspiracies while at the same time promoting conspiracy theories about their targets. Hitler and Stalin would be merely the most prominent examples; there have been numerous others. The idea that history itself is controlled by large long-standing conspiracies is rejected by historian Bruce Cumings:
"But if conspiracies exist, they rarely move history; they make a difference at the margins from time to time, but with the unforeseen consequences of a logic outside the control of their authors: and this is what is wrong with 'conspiracy theory.' History is moved by the broad forces and large structures of human collectivities."
The term conspiracism is used in the work of Michael Kelly, Chip Berlet, and Matthew N. Lyons. According to Berlet and Lyons, "Conspiracism is a particular narrative form of scapegoating that frames demonized enemies as part of a vast insidious plot against the common good, while it valorizes the scapegoater as a hero for sounding the alarm".
Many people tend to respond to events or situations which have had an emotional impact upon them by trying to make sense of those events, typically in spiritual, moral, political, or scientific terms.
Events which seem to resist such interpretation—for example, because they are, in fact, unexplainable—may provoke the inquirer to look harder for a meaning, until one is reached that is capable of offering the inquirer the required emotional satisfaction.
At other times, the unfolding of complex sequences of events such as political phenomena are explainable, but not in simple terms. Conspiracy theories are often preferred by individuals as a way to understand what is happening around them without having to grasp the complexities of history and political interaction.
As sociological historian Holger Herwig found in studying German explanations for the origins of World War I:
Those events that are most important are hardest to understand, because they attract the greatest attention from myth makers and charlatans.
This normal process could be diverted by a number of influences. At the level of the individual, pressing psychological needs may influence the process, and certain of our universal mental tools may impose epistemic 'blind spots'. At the group or sociological level, historic factors may make the process of assigning satisfactory meanings more or less problematic.
According to some psychologists, a person who believes in one conspiracy theory tends to believe in others; a person who does not believe in one conspiracy theory tends not to believe another. This may be caused by differences in the information upon which parties rely in formulating their conclusions. A person who believes in a conspiracy theory may do so because of awareness of information, such as that a certain political leader was a member of an enigmatic secret society, of which some who disbelieve the conspiracy theory may not be aware. Awareness of such information may be correlated with awareness of other information which increases the likelihood that one will believe in other conspiracy theories. The lack of awareness of such information may be correlated with the lack of awareness of other information which decreases the likelihood that one will believe in other conspiracy theories.
Psychologists believe that the search for meaningfulness is common in conspiracism and the development of conspiracy theories, and may be powerful enough alone to lead to the first formulating of the idea. Once cognized, confirmation bias and avoidance of cognitive dissonance may reinforce the belief. In a context where a conspiracy theory has become popular within a social group, communal reinforcement may equally play a part.
Some research carried out at the University of Kent, UK suggests people may be influenced by conspiracy theories without being aware that their attitudes have changed. After reading popular conspiracy theories about the death of Diana, Princess of Wales, participants in this study correctly estimated how much their peers' attitudes had changed, but significantly underestimated how much their own attitudes had changed to become more in favour of the conspiracy theories. The authors conclude that conspiracy theories may therefore have a 'hidden power' to influence people's beliefs. |
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deadman
Joined: 27 May 2006 Location: Suwon
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Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:41 pm Post subject: |
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Hmmm. Something's not quite right with the OP.
I suspect the meaning of the post is something other than the literal one.
Let's see - "Coincidence theories"...
Making a distinction between actual coincidences and conspiracies that debunkers claim are just coincidences?
Pointing out that some people (the minority of conspiracy skeptics IMO) treat "conspiracy theories" in the same way they treat the plainly inconsequential "theories" such as these, regardless of alternative arguments?
Help me out IGTG. The point is... ? |
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igotthisguitar

Joined: 08 Apr 2003 Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
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Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:55 pm Post subject: |
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deadman wrote: |
Help me out IGTG. The point is... ? |
Appearances (perception) vs. reality
What it is. |
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deadman
Joined: 27 May 2006 Location: Suwon
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Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:08 pm Post subject: |
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Interesting article. I'm not familiar with the authors, but I'll address what you have posted here.
Manner of Speaking wrote: |
Conspiracy theories are often not taken seriously, because so many conspiracy theories - almost by definition - lack readily verifiable evidence. |
I think it is a mistake to generalise here.
"The elites who run the world are being manipulated by reptilian extradimensional entities" lacks readily verifiable evidence.
"The Fed is privately owned and when it creates more money, it lends it to the US government at interest" has an abundance of verifiable evidence.
Other conspiracies have different degrees of available evidence.
Why treat them all the same? I think this error seriously devalues all subsequent comment, and they evidently belong pretty strongly to the "there's not such thing as a conspiracy" school of thought.
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This raises the question of what mechanisms might exist in popular culture that lead to the invention and subsequent dissemination of unsubstantiated theories.
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I'm not sure that that question follows from the premise.
In order to link the two you need an additional clause:
"Many conspiracies are not taken seriously" , "not taken seriously = not true", so "what mechanism led to the theories invention"
Better questions might be:
What social mechanisms lead to all conspiracy theories not being taken seriously when, in fact, some are true and should be taken seriously?
How exactly do we define "conspiracy theory", and is our use consistent with our definition?
What evidence, if any, led to the formation of a particular theory?
What social factors and mechanisms affected its subsequent dissemination and development?
What standards of proof do we attach to "official" vs "unofficial" theories when both are unsubstantiated or questionably substantiated?
Does our desire to maintain the status quo affect our judgment when considering possibilities that would be very disturbing if true?
In the absence of verifiable evidence from either side, is it a sign of a psychological disorder to be able to entertain multiple points of view, until argument or evidence moves us one way or the other?
How committed are we to the basic unspoken assumptions of our world view paradigm, and what would it take to change it, if anything?
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In pursuit of answers to that question, conspiracy theory has become a topic of interest for sociologists, psychologists and experts in folklore since at least the 1960s, when the assassination of US President John F. Kennedy eventually provoked an unprecedented public response directed against the official version of the case as expounded in the Report of the Warren Commission. |
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According to Mintz, conspiracism denotes: "belief in the primacy of conspiracies in the unfolding of history": |
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"Conspiracism serves the needs of diverse political and social groups in America and elsewhere. It identifies elites, blames them for economic and social catastrophes, and assumes that things will be better once popular action can remove them from positions of power. As such, conspiracy theories do not typify a particular epoch or ideology". |
It seems to assume the elites are blameless and shouldn't have to answer for their crimes.
Let's substitute environmentalism for conspriacism and see how it sounds:
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"Environmentalism serves the needs of diverse political and social groups in America and elsewhere. It identifies company directors who devise or approve illegal environmentally destructive practices, blames them for environmental catastrophes, and assumes that things will be better once popular action can make them answer for their crimes, and discourage others from engaging in the same practices. As such, environmental awareness does not typify a particular epoch or ideology". |
Sounds reasonable to me. Why take the company's PR and advertising as gospel and deride the environmentalists as crazy?
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Throughout human history, political and economic leaders genuinely have been the cause of enormous amounts of death and misery, and they sometimes have engaged in conspiracies while at the same time promoting conspiracy theories about their targets. Hitler and Stalin would be merely the most prominent examples; there have been numerous others. The idea that history itself is controlled by large long-standing conspiracies is rejected by historian Bruce Cumings:
"But if conspiracies exist, they rarely move history; they make a difference at the margins from time to time, but with the unforeseen consequences of a logic outside the control of their authors: and this is what is wrong with 'conspiracy theory.' History is moved by the broad forces and large structures of human collectivities." |
So he basically admits the existence of long standing conspiracy theories, but argue about the scale, as seen from a macro, historical perspective. I agree, but in this day and age, the influence of broad forces and large structures of human collectivities is getting smaller in comparison to the expanding level of control at the national, and eventually world level.
Longstanding conspiracies exist. Families conspire from generation to generation to preserve themselves and further their interests. Some family lines are long and unbroken. Some families have a very large effect on history (eg the Rothschilds, although that is only a few hundred years old or so)
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The term conspiracism is used in the work of Michael Kelly, Chip Berlet, and Matthew N. Lyons. According to Berlet and Lyons, "Conspiracism is a particular narrative form of scapegoating that frames demonized enemies as part of a vast insidious plot against the common good, while it valorizes the scapegoater as a hero for sounding the alarm".
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The term seems to interchangeable with "conspiracy theorist" and used more freely than that narrow definition would allow.
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This normal process could be diverted by a number of influences. At the level of the individual, pressing psychological needs may influence the process, and certain of our universal mental tools may impose epistemic 'blind spots'. At the group or sociological level, historic factors may make the process of assigning satisfactory meanings more or less problematic. |
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According to some psychologists, a person who believes in one conspiracy theory tends to believe in others; a person who does not believe in one conspiracy theory tends not to believe another. This may be caused by differences in the information upon which parties rely in formulating their conclusions. A person who believes in a conspiracy theory may do so because of awareness of information, such as that a certain political leader was a member of an enigmatic secret society, of which some who disbelieve the conspiracy theory may not be aware. Awareness of such information may be correlated with awareness of other information which increases the likelihood that one will believe in other conspiracy theories. The lack of awareness of such information may be correlated with the lack of awareness of other information which decreases the likelihood that one will believe in other conspiracy theories.
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ie conspiracy theorists are informed, and conspiracy obliviousts are not?
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Psychologists believe that the search for meaningfulness is common in conspiracism and the development of conspiracy theories, and may be powerful enough alone to lead to the first formulating of the idea. Once cognized, confirmation bias and avoidance of cognitive dissonance may reinforce the belief. In a context where a conspiracy theory has become popular within a social group, communal reinforcement may equally play a part. |
The important part is why the theory was formed in the first place, which the author seems to attribute solely to "search for meaning". What if the conspiracy is actually true, or is that a possibility the author excludes?
After that, conspiracy and mainstream beliefs are subject to the same social and psychological forces.
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Some research carried out at the University of Kent, UK suggests people may be influenced by conspiracy theories without being aware that their attitudes have changed. After reading popular conspiracy theories about the death of Diana, Princess of Wales, participants in this study correctly estimated how much their peers' attitudes had changed, but significantly underestimated how much their own attitudes had changed to become more in favour of the conspiracy theories. The authors conclude that conspiracy theories may therefore have a 'hidden power' to influence people's beliefs. |
This mechanism might also explain why so many Americans believe Saddam Hussein conspired to bring about 9/11!
Now that I think about it, wouldn't "conspiracism" apply exactly to the Bush administrations about Bin Ladens omnipotent evil? |
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blaseblasphemener
Joined: 01 Jun 2006 Location: There's a voice, keeps on calling me, down the road, that's where I'll always be
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Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:45 pm Post subject: |
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Lincoln and Darwin were both born on Feb.12, 1812.
Mario Lemieux and Ray Borque were born on the same day, in the same hospital in Montreal. |
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tomato

Joined: 31 Jan 2003 Location: I get so little foreign language experience, I must be in Koreatown, Los Angeles.
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Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 12:52 am Post subject: |
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When I was in the third grade, my family moved from Nashville, Tennessee to Anderson, Indiana.
In each city, we were friends with a family with three boys, named John, Jay, and David.
Isn't that truly amazing? |
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igotthisguitar

Joined: 08 Apr 2003 Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
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Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:28 am Post subject: |
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tomato wrote: |
When I was in the third grade, my family moved from Nashville, Tennessee to Anderson, Indiana.
In each city, we were friends with a family with three boys, named John, Jay, and David.
Isn't that truly amazing? |
Weird, yah. Now what's the PROBABILITY of that?
Did you have lots of friends & associates back then?
Hmmmmm ... |
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Manner of Speaking

Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 12:02 pm Post subject: |
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Whatever. I just copied and pasted from Wikipedia. |
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igotthisguitar

Joined: 08 Apr 2003 Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
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Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 5:28 pm Post subject: |
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Beckett's ex-girlfriend sings national anthem
By Associated Press
October 18, 2007
CLEVELAND � This was a pinch-hitter Josh Beckett probably didn't expect to see.
Country singer Danielle Peck, an Ohio native who used to date the Boston Red Sox ace, sang the national anthem and "God Bless America" on Thursday night for Game 5 of the AL championship series.
Beckett pitched Thursday as his team faced elimination. Boston trailed the Cleveland Indians 3-1 in the best-of-seven series.
Peck was a substitute for Taylor Swift, another country star, who was slated to handle the singing duties.
"(Peck's) record company called and said she's got Ohio ties and we said, 'Perfect,"' Indians vice president Bob DiBiasio said.
Peck's manager, Bob Burwell, initially issued a no comment to media inquiries about the singer's relationship with Beckett through the Indians and said all interviews "will abruptly end" if their wishes aren't honored.
Later, all interview requests were politely declined.
DiBiasio said the Indians were unaware of the history between Beckett and Peck.
"An incredible coincidence," he said. "... honestly." |
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