Korean Job Discussion Forums

[pastis]

[Treefarmer]

it'll always be the same people in charge.....

[maniitok1]

This is really simple. Japan has 70 multi-nationals. Korea has 8 (3 are samsung), China has 16 or so. Canada has 0. USA has 145.

USA will perish if those 145 leave the US as its home base. And, regardless of whether the 145 leave or not, China will become the world's largest economy by sheer size of population and land size. 300 million Chinese go to work in factories everyday. The important part is who will own China's private sector. Will the 145 snatch it up or will China be able to hang onto it. As of now, it appears the big and powerful countries are slicing up China into foreign ownership chunks. China appears to be a master of protectionism against foreign infiltration, but this is just a PR front. The month Review has several great articles about foreign ownership of Chinese companies.

If you want to compare who will be the richest. It's even easier. To respect "economies of scale" you have to per cap the profit. This info can be found via the UN I think. Basically, for every American there is about 17000 dollars. Canada is about 12000 (if i remember correctly). Japan is 9000 and Korea is slightly less. By this measure, China will never be richer than the US.

lots to ponder

[Kimchi Cha Cha]

It's going to be interesting what happens.

China is on everyone's mind as the upcoming superpower but how is it going to cope with its huge population; huge floating internal migrant population; rising gap between rich and poor; urban-rural divide; pollution and environment; increasing use of raw materials, energy and water; eventual transition from manufacturing to service based economy; ethnic tensions (particularly in Tibet and Xixiang); humans rights issues and citizens' demands for greater rights with their increasing affluence.

India's got huge potential but also huge problems. Has one of the largest middle-class populations in the world and has the advantage of being a republic with large English speaking population. Also has huge rich-poor and urban-rural divide; gender inequality; religious and cultural tensions; overcrowding; huge population; and other issues.

The US will still be a big player with established wealth and networks; strong politicial system and global influence.

Europe's going to slow down big time with its aging population and socialist economies and will take on a different shape as North African and Muslim migrants transform the continent more and more as the decades go on. It will still have the history and the castles however but will be where Indians, Chinese and other Asians go on vacations. Mitigated somewhat by becoming a single entity, minus Switzerland (they'll never give up their independence).

Brazil will become more affluent and influential with its population, natural resources and large area. Canada likewise.

SE Asia and the Middle East have the potential to boom as they are, and always have been, crossroads of cultures and civilizations. I see places such as Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore really taking off.

Australia has the potential to become a influential medium sized country provide it continues to re-direct its focus towards Asia and Asian markets.

Japan will be thereabouts but largely thanks to China. Its glory days of the 80s and early 90s are over however with its low birth rate, aging population, small landmass, little resources and insular ways. Korea, likewise, will continue along largely thanks to its proximity to China.

Russia has the potential to become a big, big player but will probably collapse on itself again with ethnic and religious tensions coupled with nationalism.

Argentina, Mexico and Chile with continue to grow in wealth, along with the Philippines and they're large English speaking population in East Asia.

Turkey (by then part of European Union) and Iran have the potential to become big players along with Saudi Arabia.

Africa has all the potential in the world but so many problems. Nigeria has the population and resources to become big but huge problems, likewise the Congo and to a lesser extent, South Africa.

If I were to guess the top 15 economies in terms of GDP by 2099, they would be:

1. India
2. China
3. United States
4. Brazil
5. European Union
6. Indonesia
7. Pakistan
8. Russia
9. Nigeria
10. Saudi Arabia
11. Philippines
12. Mexico
13. Japan
14. Iran
15. Canada

[Czarjorge]

The only way Asia could overtake the "West" is if China gets it together economically. If Chinese goods can be targeted to burgeoning Asian markets, and those markets can expand to the point where they are in line with North American consumption, then the U.S. is in trouble.

Given China's willingness to take on massive building projects, and the Himalayas being the only thing between their factories and India's markets, enough Indian money will probably mean a massive tunnel to get the goods where they need to go.

Oddly enough, globalism is driving this change. U.S. companies are directly responsible for the growth of the middle class in India.

[maniitok1]

It will be the world's largest economy but it's not shaping up to be an empire, or world leader like everyone is misled to believe. China is spending lots in PR to convince everyone that they have tight control over foreign ownership. Foreigners own the successful Chinese companies. China owners multi-nationals are not doing so great. Haier is bombing, IBM-Lenovo is bombing and Geely is about ready to sign a merger with GM. Those are China's babies.

Remember two things. The west saw the emergence of China as a world superpower back in the early part of the 20th Century. The whole point of the G8 (which is almost G7 again, thanks to Russia) is to make sure power does not get out of the hands of the most powerful. To a large extent, Japan and the US are allies, economically. You would think they would be at each other's throats as competitors. They are not. FT reported that Wall Street and Tokyo will be linking their stockmarkets via a cross-listing options for companies thinking of delisting in New York and listing in London.

China, world largest economy. Stillborn superpower-empire.

[pastis]

[Czarjorge]

I think linking economic empowerment with empire fails unless you're talking cultural imperialism. The age of empires created out of military conquest is over, though not everyone realizes that point (re: Iraq). Money/wealth begats envy. And envy is not always a bad thing. People want to come to the U.S. because they think that's where the money, where the opportunity is, and for the most part they are correct. That's why the U.S. continues, though the flow is slackening, to "brain drain" other, even developed, countries.

The biggest risk to the U.S. is that China will become the new ideal, both culturally and economically. I just don't see that happening. People realize that the U.S. changes rapidly, based on population and politics. No matter how much they might hate the U.S. today, that could change with another attack, or a surprising shift in politics via the upcoming elections. I think the perception is that China is much more static than the States, and I doubt people would be flocking to China for opportunity.

Not to mention America's lucky geographic position.

I think the bigger risk to the "West" would be the failure of the republic and new states forming. Or that failure of the E.U. (Russia is just waiting for this, and if you think Putin is done you're way off. He's going to make himself P.M. and shift all the power to his new position.) I could easily see a Pacific States sort of organization, possibly bringing in all of the U.S.'s Pacific holdings and even some Asian/Pacific states.

[ajgeddes]

[Fishead soup]

When was the last time you saw a British Motorcyle?