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Oil Overvalued by as much as 33%
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4 months left



Joined: 07 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 5:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Like I've been saying, it's not the supply, it's the REFINERIES!!


OPEC - Oil market 'out of control'
by Reuters on Tuesday, 30 October 2007

Al-Attiyah, pictured, said speculative funds and geopolitics were driving prices higher.
Oil markets are out of control and a supply increase from Opec will not help tame prices, Qatar's Oil Minister Abdallah Bin Hamad Al-Attiyah said on Tuesday.

"I don't think an increase in crude supply will help the market... the shortage is on the product side," he told reporters in London, when asked if Opec should raise output by another 500,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The group agreed at its last meeting to raise crude supply by 500,000 bpd effective from November 1 but this has failed to rein-in rampant oil prices which struck a record above $93 a barrel on Monday.

"The market is out of control. We in Opec are doing all we can do," Al-Attiyah said.

He reiterated that it was speculative funds and geopolitics that were driving prices higher.

"My advice especially for consuming countries is to build more refineries and offer more incentives for investments," he said.
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huffdaddy



Joined: 25 Nov 2005

PostPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 5:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

keane wrote:
Ilsanman wrote:
If China is a beggar country who can not afford western prices for oil, then they can go without.


Who said they cannot? China has huge reserves of foreign currency. They can afford it much more easily than the US can. They are making deals for oil all over the world while the US busies itself with illegal, immoral wars for the same purpose, but far less effectively.


You're right. China is much more effective. But I think you'd be hard pressed to show that there methodology is any more moral.
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keane



Joined: 09 Jul 2007

PostPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 6:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

huffdaddy wrote:
But I think you'd be hard pressed to show that there methodology is any more moral.


And?
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Leavingkorea



Joined: 27 Apr 2007

PostPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Note to Leaving: you being afraid of participating is not the death of a thread.


Don't confuse fear of talking to the ignorant with apathy. And yes it is dead.
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4 months left



Joined: 07 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DUG - Pro Share Ultra Short Oil....when oil goes down...-1% the ultra short goes up by double...+2%. Finger is on the trigger...gonna take some huge kahonis.
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keane



Joined: 09 Jul 2007

PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 3:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Leavingkorea wrote:
Quote:
Note to Leaving: you being afraid of participating is not the death of a thread.


Don't confuse fear of talking to the ignorant with apathy. And yes it is dead.


Sorry, oil patch, but it ain't. There were 3093 views as of October 28 at 11:59. There are now more than 3150. Four of those were mine.

Yes, it's fear. When yous start lashing out when others don't agree with you, it's fear. When you run from a thread on a topic that is having jolting info added almost daily, you do it out of fear. Your problem is you are drinking the Koolaid of the company you keep rather than thinking for yourself. Always dangerous.

Here are just a couple of the things that we now know to be fact that YOU denied:

1. Tar sands cost $25/bbl to produce. You said 15.

2. Royalties did go up. The world did not end.

3. OPEC production was announced IN THE LAST WEEK to be overstated by 300,000,000,000 barrels.... or 20-25% of current proven reserves.

Hate to say I told you so.

4. Peak Oil is here according to the King of Arabia and the guy who was th head of Saudi exploration and development for years. So, we DID know this. I DID tell you.

You know peak is here. You can't handle it.

Now go have your hissy fit.
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Leavingkorea



Joined: 27 Apr 2007

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2007 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

keane wrote:

Here are just a couple of the things that we now know to be fact that YOU denied:

1. Tar sands cost $25/bbl to produce. You said 15.

2. Royalties did go up. The world did not end.



Ignorant and stupid is no way to go through life but I'll do my part to correct you on the 2 areas I discussed with you that you list above.

1. I said $12. The price you get for production is based on smaller scale operations. Suncor and Syncrude up in Athabasca produce at $12 a barrel (please quote me accurately). Those higher figures would better represent Cold Lake and start-ups.

Again real knowledge is so much better than that stuff you have. Which is propaganda produced by people with an incredible agenda. We ain't perfect here, but my god the crap you quote is just that. Crap.

2. I think some quoting is in order because you're mixing the two of us up

Keane/EFL
Quote:
If the royalties on the tar sands were allowed to rise to anywhere near the normal levels for oil-around 40%, not 1%-the entire industry would cease to be. The profit would vanish, simple as that.


Leavingkorea/The guy working in Fort McMurray
Quote:
They are likely to increase very soon. But that statement is inaccurate...But it won't be 40%. It likely will be 5-10% which means business as usual.


So what was your point up above. That you were totally wrong? Oh and BTW a lot of people are throwing around the 20% increase figure but it's actually about 12.5%. As I said business as usual.
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keane



Joined: 09 Jul 2007

PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Leavingkorea wrote:
keane wrote:

Here are just a couple of the things that we now know to be fact that YOU denied:

1. Tar sands cost $25/bbl to produce. You said 15.

2. Royalties did go up. The world did not end.



Ignorant and stupid is no way to go through life but I'll do my part to correct you on the 2 areas I discussed with you that you list above.

1. I said $12.


Yeah, I didn't go back to check the exact dollar amount. Shoot me.

Quote:
The price you get for production is based on smaller scale operations. Suncor and Syncrude up in Athabasca produce at $12 a barrel (please quote me accurately). Those higher figures would better represent Cold Lake and start-ups.


I'll go with the overall, friend. You post crap. Unsupported crap. Support your crap, or shut up. Unsourced bull has no place in this discussion. I've told you that before.

The stuff I post is crap? The King of Saudi Arabia? T Boone Pickens? Al Husseini? (Maybe you haven't read any news since September?) Real numbers? You're a damned fool. That kind of statement belies an agenda so deeply seated in your ego that nothing will break through. Maybe you should go chat with your buddies that started up their own Peak Oil threads because they finally figured out I was right. You're the lone holdout. (There are a couple outliers, but they aren't really in the conversation.)

In the meantime, try going through this: Simmons lays it out; Husseini lays it bare.

The short version:
- ME oil reserves are 360,000,000,000 barrels. (Ooops! 11 years of global oil supply!)
- �The top 38 giant fields of Arabian Gulf are in total 41% depleted.�

I'm going to go with the guy who has financed the oil industry and the guy who managed the most important reserves on the planet over you, oil patch, even though they are "crap."

Quote:
2. I think some quoting is in order because you're mixing the two of us up

Keane/EFL
Quote:
If the royalties on the tar sands were allowed to rise to anywhere near the normal levels for oil-around 40%, not 1%-the entire industry would cease to be. The profit would vanish, simple as that.


Leavingkorea/The guy working in Fort McMurray
Quote:
They are likely to increase very soon. But that statement is inaccurate...But it won't be 40%. It likely will be 5-10% which means business as usual.


So what was your point up above. That you were totally wrong? Oh and BTW a lot of people are throwing around the 20% increase figure but it's actually about 12.5%. As I said business as usual.


Congrats. You got ONE right. Although I wasn't confusing myself with you, it was others, I suppose. I do a lot of reading on these topics and usually post my own thoughts from memory. My bad this time.

How many months before your next accurate post? Rolling Eyes
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Leavingkorea



Joined: 27 Apr 2007

PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Keane wrote

Quote:
Yeah, I didn't go back to check the exact dollar amount. Shoot me.


Quote:
Congrats. You got ONE right.


Quote:
I do a lot of reading on these topics and usually post my own thoughts from memory.


So, the gist is this. You don't know what you or other people post and simply make-up material and credit to whomever suits your fancy that day. And you want people to take you seriously? The difference between you and I (beyond the fact that I know what I'm talking about) is that I have been consistent. You have credited me with words you said, you with words I said and attacked me over these errors. Your defense is that you can't keep up with all the things you say. You change the direction of your thoughts more then a baby shits its diaper. My position however is consistent.

So who would most people believe: The guy who sends out a consistent message and who has actual knowledge of what is being discussed, or a guy who mixes up not only others but his own "facts" and simply tries to bury people in links that come from a limited number of sources and that on a daily basis conflict with one another in some way?



And stop making a stupid request that I upload and link you to confidential corporate information. You're a retard for even asking that I do it. You don't seem to concerned when whistle blowers come forward without illegal official documents that would put them in prison so why make a deal of it now. If you're willing to believe all of these assessments you link that lack official company records but not a first hand account that does the same then you clearly are doing nothing but pushing a political agenda and have no real interest in actually learning about this issue. Which is in direct contrast to your original stated goal in the peak oil thread.



Quote:
- ME oil reserves are 360,000,000,000 barrels. (Ooops! 11 years of global oil supply!)


Tell you what, I'll make you a deal. If the oil is all gone in 11 years I'll put a bullet in my head. If it's not you put one in yours. Tell you what I'm a nice guy I'll give you 15 years since we have a business plan that exceeds 50 years I'm feeling pretty confident.

Quote:

How many months before your next accurate post?


As I'm busy with a demanding job and an active family life, I can't spend all of my time here chasing you about, nor would I want to. But once in a while I will post an accurate post if I feel a need as you certainly are unable to that as you've admitted above.
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postfundie



Joined: 28 May 2004

PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Tell you what, I'll make you a deal. If the oil is all gone in 11 years I'll put a bullet in my head. If it's not you put one in yours. Tell you what I'm a nice guy I'll give you 15 years since we have a business plan that exceeds 50 years I'm feeling pretty confident


I thought you had to shoot yourself if Bush doesn't go through with his plan to hold on to the white house for 4 more years....
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contrarian



Joined: 20 Jan 2007
Location: Nearly in NK

PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Depends on whether you are from Alberta or not. Making out like bandits there.
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keane



Joined: 09 Jul 2007

PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

contrarian wrote:
Depends on whether you are from Alberta or not. Making out like bandits there.


Yeah, all those people sleeping in garages and shanty villages are doing just great. And ESPECIALLY all the locals who aren't in the oil business. Yup, making out like bandits. At least, it would look that way to an myopic fool.

Quit claiming all is peachy in Alberta. It's bull.
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keane



Joined: 09 Jul 2007

PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Leavingkorea wrote:
Keane wrote

Quote:
Yeah, I didn't go back to check the exact dollar amount. Shoot me.


Quote:
Congrats. You got ONE right.


Quote:
I do a lot of reading on these topics and usually post my own thoughts from memory.


So, the gist is this. You don't know what you or other people post and simply make-up material and credit to whomever suits your fancy that day.


This from the guy pulling numbers out of his ass, who won't cite a source, claims others only hear what they want to hear despite the fact they post stories on all sides of the issue, etc.? Grow up. So I mixed up who said what months ago. I then acknowledged it and too responsibility. That is something a tool of your industry could never do. Lying is endemic to the oil industry, but you expect people to accept unsourced info? What a joke.

Man up and admit you've added zero information of significance to the issue of Peak Oil. Even after the Saudis tell you themselves they DON'T have those 300,000,000,000 barrels they claimed back in the day AND that the ride is over? The king himself said changes were ahead - for everyone.

But it's all crap. Stop smoking the oil, Oil Patch.

Quote:
And you want people to take you seriously?


Could care less what anyone does or doesn't think of me. The thread isn't about me, Oil Patch.

Quote:
The difference between you and I (beyond the fact that I know what I'm talking about)


Laughable. Please share anything you've been right about. You said McMurray is fine. Bull. You said we couldn't know what the OPEC reserves were. We did. Those sudden rises were smoke and mirrors, just as I said. Etc. You're smoking what ever your fellow shovel handlers give you, and making foolish statement after foolish statement.

Quote:
is that I have been consistent.


Consistently wrong and consistently an ass. I worked for weeks to keep you civil. I let a number of insults go by without responding in kind. You didn't have the strength of character to tell the tools on the Peak Oil thread to shove off. Instead, you started acting like them: childish and rude.

Quote:
You have credited me with words you said, you with words I said and attacked me over these errors.


Attacked you? You're a joke. Any "attack" I've mounted has had to do with HOW you post because you post like a child. You've never provided any info actually worth debating.

Quote:
So who would most people believe:


You really don't get it, do you? No wonder your posts are so fucked up. You actually think this is about YOU. It's not. Nor is it about me. I've asked nobody to believe anything I say. The info is not mine. I provide it and give my personal comments, that's it. Get a grip, Oil Patch. You're just a little hole digger in a big, big world.

Quote:
The guy who sends out a consistent message


What message? That you can't think for yourself, have no data to offer of any kind, and Peak Oil is a myth? Congratulations on being consistently irrelevant.

Quote:
and who has actual knowledge of what is being discussed,


WHAT knowledge? You've provided ZERO info. ZERO. Again, "My fellow butt scratchers said so" is not data.

Quote:
tries to bury people in links that come from a limited number of sources and that on a daily basis conflict with one another in some way?


You really are unable to think. Bury people in links? Damed fool... what the *beep* do you think gathering information is? Why do you think someone would post information from a VARIETY of sources? Seriously, how'd you get out of grade school?

You've never been worth the time. Never more so than now.

See ya, Oil Patch. I think your ass needs scratching again. Get to it.
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Leavingkorea



Joined: 27 Apr 2007

PostPosted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 8:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

keane wrote:
contrarian wrote:
Depends on whether you are from Alberta or not. Making out like bandits there.


Yeah, all those people sleeping in garages and shanty villages are doing just great. And ESPECIALLY all the locals who aren't in the oil business. Yup, making out like bandits. At least, it would look that way to an myopic fool.

Quit claiming all is peachy in Alberta. It's bull.


Tell us about your trips to Alberta and Fort McMurray please. I'd love to know how you gained such incite into our lives and hear your thoughts. I'll buy the beer for the night next time you stop in.

Oh that's right I forgot you've never been here. Actual knowledge about things would interfere with your making up of things. My bad. Rolling Eyes
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Leavingkorea



Joined: 27 Apr 2007

PostPosted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 8:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
WHAT knowledge? You've provided ZERO info. ZERO. Again, "My fellow butt scratchers said so" is not data.


no I provided zero information that you liked. Those are different things. Go read the peak oil thread.

Quote:
Bury people in links? Damed fool... what the *beep* do you think gathering information is?


Talking with people who work in the industry. Listening and reading with an open mind and not already with an agenda in mind that I wish to prove. The Scientific method is respected for a reason. I came to my thoughts through a gathering of knowledge. You grabbed on to a cause celeb and have ignored all things that do not support it, to the point of mass ignorance.

Quote:
Why do you think someone would post information from a VARIETY of sources?


90% of your links come from the same propaganda site. That does not make it true. If I quoted a few sites hundreds of times that denied the Holocaust it would be no more true.

Keep working at it Forest. Remember 15 years, just don't flinch.
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