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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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 Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 2:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Pluto wrote: |
Free Market Soulutions? A question about the electric car came up a little while ago. Some more information on the chevy Volt:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGH0hedjW6Y
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgTcdfkihE4
While there are concepts of supply and demand, there are also concepts of substitutes and compliments at play here as well.
You should also take into account elasticities of demand, both short term and long term. All these come into play in regards to the price of oil and gasoline. |
If you read the Peak Oil thread, you will find all these points are discussed either directly or are in the links. I'm fairly certain I'm the most informed person on Peak Oil on these forums, so it won't do you much good to to assume I'm not considering the forest AND the trees. I cannot say this is true of most others here, however. The substitutes? They're included. The info above is for ALL LIQUIDS. The oft-quoted 85,000,000 bbl/d? All liquids. C+C is around 73-74,000,000 bbl/day. |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 6:31 pm Post subject: |
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| keane wrote: |
| Thunndarr wrote: |
| Yep, the stock market sucks. |
News flash: Stock Market does not = economy.
Why do you need this explained to you if you are making so much money from the stock market? |
The stock market leads the economy. It is not always right but it is considered a leading indicator as it looks to the future not the past.
SUBSTITUTES, for the last time will come on. Oil sands - 8x the reserves of Saudi. Oil is used much more efficiently than in the past so it does not have a large effect on the economy.
Oil will fall and when it does, it will fall fast...not today, not tomorrow but it will fall. You have been right so far but be patient.
If my uraniums didn't get slammed I would be slowly getting into DUG - oil ultra short shares. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2007 4:22 am Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
| keane wrote: |
| Thunndarr wrote: |
| Yep, the stock market sucks. |
News flash: Stock Market does not = economy.
Why do you need this explained to you if you are making so much money from the stock market? |
The stock market leads the economy. It is not always right but it is considered a leading indicator as it looks to the future not the past.
SUBSTITUTES, for the last time will come on. Oil sands - 8x the reserves of Saudi. Oil is used much more efficiently than in the past so it does not have a large effect on the economy.
Oil will fall and when it does, it will fall fast...not today, not tomorrow but it will fall. You have been right so far but be patient.
If my uraniums didn't get slammed I would be slowly getting into DUG - oil ultra short shares. |
I only have time for....
hahahahahaha.....
More later. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2007 4:25 am Post subject: |
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Fed hemmorhaging money. (Don't you wonder what the money supply is just about now?) Corporate welfare, GOOOD! Helping real people, BAAAD!
Fed has biggest day of injections since Sept 2001
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Thu Nov 1, 2007 10:43am ET146
NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve added a total of $41 billion in temporary reserves to the banking system on Thursday, the biggest single day of such injections since September 2001.
The Fed's infusions may reflect the central bank's efforts to bring the federal funds rate down nearer to its target just one day after a widely expected rate cut.
Fed funds last traded at 4.625 percent on the open market, above the Fed's target rate of 4.50 percent.
A Fed spokesman would not comment on the total size of the operations, but did say it was the largest single day of operations since a total of $50.35 billion was injected on Sept. 19, 2001, following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center.
On Thursday, the central bank conducted $8 billion of 14-day repurchases, $21 billion of seven-day repurchases and $12 billion of overnight repurchase agreements.
The total on Thursday surpassed the $38 billion the Fed injected on Aug. 10, which was generally seen as the beginning of a global credit crisis. At the time, the Fed and the European Central Bank ramped up temporary liquidity operations with the intent of alleviating strains in short-term lending markets. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2007 4:32 am Post subject: |
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160,000 new jobs in October...double the estimate!!! Time to Rock!!
Keane = CHICKEN LITTLE
ha ha ha ha |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2007 2:30 am Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
160,000 new jobs in October...double the estimate!!! Time to Rock!!
Keane = CHICKEN LITTLE
ha ha ha ha |
4 months left = ostrich. A blind ostrich, at that.
As the Doobies said, "What a fool believes he sees no wise man has the power to reason away..."
Since I've got the people most knowledgeable about Saudi oil (The king himself and his top development and production guy), the best oil price prognosticator (T. Boone Pickens), the head of Total, and many others, on my side and you have... you on your side, I think I'll g with my side, eh?
Further, since my predictions regarding climate change and oil have been coming true while your predictions... have not... I again think I'll go with mine.
If you've nothing but straw dolls to toss about, you must be getting pretty desperate.
Flat production, continued growth in demand...
Flat production, continued growth in demand...
Flat production, continued growth in demand...
Flat production, continued growth in demand...
Flat production, continued growth in demand...
Flat production, continued growth in demand...
Bwahahahahahah.......
(In my best bogeyman voice...)
So listen closely, friend, and remember this when your friends and family ask you why you never said anything when you'd been warned:
EVERY oil field peaks and declines.
MOST oil fields are quite old and MOST oil producers are past peak or soon will be.
OPEC has at least 300,000,000,000 bbls than it claims.
Saudi Arabia can produce no more than 12.5 mb/d. If they ramp up to that - if they can - it gets us the equivalent of 1 year of decline plus rise in demand. ONE YEAR. No other nation has anywhere near that spare capacity at this time.
There is possibly 5 million more barrels a day in Alberta, three to five million in Venezuela and the three in Saudi. There is a little bit more in a few other nations. Max of, say, 18. Problem? Only the Saudi is available now. The Alberta production is 13 years away. The Venezuelan? God only knows, but not less than 20. By that time, the crash/change will already have begun. It's already beginning. There are already areas that can't afford the fuel and/or food they need. (Kinda like the Arctic is ALREADY melting.)
Now, you call me chicken little, but I call you a damned fool. First, for calling someone who has not made any final prediction of what IS GOING TO HAPPEN a chicken little. That's just foolish. Second, for taking globally discussed issues and pretending it's something *I* dreamed up. That's just foolish. (I don't, for example, see you calling Robert Hirsch a chicken little for writing a little report stating the US government better get it's fat ass in gear.) Third, for being the intellectual equivalent of a snot-nosed kid. That's just foolish.
I know this stuff is scary, but acting like a five year-old doesn't get you anywhere. |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2007 2:38 am Post subject: |
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My suggestion to you is that you build a bunker. Like that movie where the guy builds a bunker and sends his son out for supplies...can't remember the actors. The end is nigh, the end is nigh!!
What a surprise Boone is touting oil... Jeez, I wonder why. Actually he is now heavily into wind power. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2007 3:25 am Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
| What a surprise Boone is touting oil... Jeez, I wonder why. Actually he is now heavily into wind power. |
Pickens is "touting" oil? Are you nuts?
Are you trying to contradict yourself, or just not able to control yourself? Is he touting oil or alternatives?
Or, are you admitting peak, and Boone, are correct?
As for a shelter, I didn't realize nuclear war was on the agenda. You been talking to Bush? First, a shelter will be of no use in case of global collapse and unecessary anything this side of that.
Now, go insult any of the fine people who you must, if you are going to continue to insult me. Go to the Oil Drum and make a list and start sending them insulting messages like you post here.
Childish. |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:49 am Post subject: |
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Boone is an oilman so of course he is touting oil. He is also putting his money into alternative energy sources which I have said will eventually replace oil.
The reason I suggested you build a shelter is because if oil is going to run out and there is pure anarchy and the world is coming to and end, you probably should build an undergroung shelter. |
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Adventurer
Joined: 28 Jan 2006
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| Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2007 6:14 am Post subject: |
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| Pluto wrote: |
This would be evidence that the US isn't falling into the abyss of mediocrity. So many on this board seem to be salivating at China's rise and America's demise 
But as has been said, just because China's economy is rising doesn't mean America's is falling. Some lefties can't get their head around the concept of capital creation. Which means the potential for wealth is unlimited for everyone. |
There are many reasons why the dollar is low. There isn't one factor. One reason is the rise in oil prices which increases the bill for that important commodity, there is the high deficit, and the huge trade deficit. This may be seen as a correction. China's economy is artificially inflated on the other hand. The Yuan is undervalued.
The trade deficit vis-a-vis the US and Europe has shrunk but not vis-a-vis China. I think you can expect the Canadian dollar to reach around 1.20 US. It will take time for the greenback to bounce back. As far as the housing market, there were problems in the 1980s. Problems do happen in the market.. It doesn't mean gloom and doom, but the US economy needs strong, good leadership in the White House; it doesn't have that yet... |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2007 6:40 am Post subject: |
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| Adventurer wrote: |
| Pluto wrote: |
This would be evidence that the US isn't falling into the abyss of mediocrity. So many on this board seem to be salivating at China's rise and America's demise
But as has been said, just because China's economy is rising doesn't mean America's is falling. Some lefties can't get their head around the concept of capital creation. Which means the potential for wealth is unlimited for everyone. |
There are many reasons why the dollar is low. There isn't one factor. One reason is the rise in oil prices which increases the bill for that important commodity, there is the high deficit, and the huge trade deficit. This may be seen as a correction. China's economy is artificially inflated on the other hand. The Yuan is undervalued.
The trade deficit vis-a-vis the US and Europe has shrunk but not vis-a-vis China. I think you can expect the Canadian dollar to reach around 1.20 US. It will take time for the greenback to bounce back. As far as the housing market, there were problems in the 1980s. Problems do happen in the market.. It doesn't mean gloom and doom, but the US economy needs strong, good leadership in the White House; it doesn't have that yet... |
the US deficit is way down. 189 billion. It has been going down for the last few years .
The US has to pay for social security and medicare down the road but Bush didn't cause that.
Bush't tax cuts I think weren't worth it but they are only a small negative since tax cuts may also increase productivity. I don't think it was worth the extra debt but it is close.
The economy was going into recession before Bush took office .
The stock market meltdown started before Bush took office.
Bush is not responsible for the fact that oil demand in China and India is much higher.
High oil prices are a drag on the US economy. It is another thing that one can not blame Bush for. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:59 pm Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
Boone is an oilman so of course he is touting oil. He is also putting his money into alternative energy sources which I have said will eventually replace oil.
The reason I suggested you build a shelter is because if oil is going to run out and there is pure anarchy and the world is coming to and end, you probably should build an undergroung shelter. |
I am sick of the stupidity on these forums. If you cannot debate, just shut up. You have nothing to say on these topics any longer, having been schooled. You have shown you are unable to discuss them like an adult any longer. My predictions have been correct, your predictions have not, so you have stooped to the Gopher Method. This disgusts me.
Pull your head out. |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2007 7:33 pm Post subject: |
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Stupidity.....you are writing bwahahahahaha, 4 months = ostrich. What are you 5 years old? What's wrong with suggesting that you build a shelter if you think the world is coming to an end. It was not a joke.
You have been right...SO FAR. This is my last reply to you. Like I said I don't really care if I am wrong or right as long as my stocks continue to do well and then the price of oil will not matter to me.
Good luck. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:30 pm Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
| What's wrong with suggesting that you build a shelter if you think the world is coming to an end. It was not a joke. |
Bull. Your comment was patronizing, at best. I dislike lying even more than intentional stupidity.
Oil will fall. Everything gos up and down. The question is, will there be a meaningful fall and will it occur without a major recession, depression, or collapse? I say it will not.
There may be temporary drops to 60 or 70 a bbl for short periods. This is inconsequential. The new floor for real oil prices is, for now, 70 - 80/bbl. Once people realize oil production will never rise more than 3 - 5 mb/d, and probably not ever approach that, the market fundamentals of supply and demand you trust so much (even though I told you the market does not handle public policy issues efficiently) do the rest.
That floor will be rising. IT may lower again around 2010 due to projects coming online, but will decline again after that due to a lack of projects in current development. It is highly unlikely that even that very optimistic scenario will actually play out. China and India are not slowing down, the US CAN'T slow down that fast because too many commute and there is little alternative infrastructure, etc.
So, speak clearly and like a man, not a rodent: when will it fall, how far will it fall, why will it fall and how long will it stay there? |
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