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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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 Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 3:57 am Post subject: War Weakening US Economy |
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George Bush says fighting global warming will cost Americans jobs. But he is ignoring the long-term damage of the war in Iraq.
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...The Center for Economic and Policy Research asked Global Insight, one of the country's largest economic forecasting firms, to model the impact of war related spending on the economy. Its model showed that after initially providing a stimulus to the economy, the effect of war related spending turned negative by the sixth year, and gets increasingly negative through time.
By the 10th year, higher military spending was projected to have reduced employment by 470,000 jobs, largely due to declines in car production, housing construction and an increase in the trade deficit. The model projected that construction employment would be 140,000 lower and manufacturing employment 95,000 lower because of the impact of higher military spending. The cumulative trade deficit over the first decade is projected to be more than $700bn higher as a result of spending on the war.
The Global Insight model is of course just one model of the economy, but its model is very similar to others that generally are used to gauge the economic impact of various policies. Other widely used models would almost certainly show a comparable negative effect of war-related spending... |
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igotthisguitar
Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 6:29 pm Post subject: |
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| DESTRUCTION BY DESIGN |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 6:38 pm Post subject: |
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| You build a tank, you employ people. When the tank is done, it does no productive work. You build a tractor, you employ people. When the tractor is done, it produces something and increased efficiency. Yes, war is not good for the economy. |
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djsmnc
Joined: 20 Jan 2003
Location: Dave's ESL Cafe
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 6:56 pm Post subject: |
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| mindmetoo wrote: |
| You build a tank, you employ people. When the tank is done, it does no productive work. You build a tractor, you employ people. When the tractor is done, it produces something and increased efficiency. Yes, war is not good for the economy. |
Tanks make fine headstones to decorate cemetaries and ashes to fertilize the land. They also kill efficiently. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:12 pm Post subject: |
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| mindmetoo wrote: |
| Yes, war is not good for the economy. |
We are not exactly aiming for a Nobel Prize in economics with this thread and its brilliant and original insights, though, are we? |
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loose_ends
Joined: 23 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Gopher wrote: |
| mindmetoo wrote: |
| Yes, war is not good for the economy. |
We are not exactly aiming for a Nobel Prize in economics with this thread and its brilliant and original insights, though, are we? |
what's you point? |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:20 pm Post subject: |
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| loose_ends wrote: |
| what's you point? |
what's me point? |
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Dome Vans
Guest
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Gopher wrote: |
| mindmetoo wrote: |
| Yes, war is not good for the economy. |
We are not exactly aiming for a Nobel Prize in economics with this thread and its brilliant and original insights, though, are we? |
Any point in posting then Gopher? Maybe you should be off 'cooking' your lobsters slowly.
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Given the nature of this new conflict with terrorism, the economy is not likely to be revived by the developments that fueled previous wartime booms, like surging orders for tanks and airplanes or demand for workers to replace those who go off to fight.
On the negative side is the uncertainty, and in some cases fear, that has gripped businesses, consumers and investors since Sept. 11, further weakening an economy that had been teetering on the brink of recession, if not already in one.
"The part pushing us into recession is that everyone is more concerned about risk," he said. "The part pulling us out is increasing government spending, cutting taxes, being less concerned about the budget deficit and having the Fed move more aggressively to stimulate the economy than it probably would have without this attack."
Instead, the effectiveness of lower interest rates, higher government spending and tax cuts in turning the economy around will depend to some extent on how the battle against terrorism goes, and on whether the United States and its allies suffer retaliatory attacks.
Despite a series of interest rate decreases by the Fed and a tax cut signed into law by President Bush, unemployment was creeping up, business investment in new factories and equipment had stalled, and consumers were growing increasingly jittery.
"We simply do not know how the military action will play out, or what response there might be from the terrorists," said Ian Shepherdson, an economist at High Frequency Economics, a consulting firm. "Even if the U.S. and other governments manage to foil attempted attacks, we do not know how American consumers will respond to what might amount to a state of perpetual national insecurity." |
http://www.ccds.charlotte.nc.us/touma/econ/Wartime.htm
SO basically, the economy is looking a bit fragile. What would another conflict do to it? If consumer spending is falling then another conflist would only magnify the problem. As mentioned before, tanks and the armament production is only a short term strategy. Add in the nature of the war, mainly, when will it end? It's a war that can't be "won" so what would this mean for employment and the economy. Can't see it carrying on for much longer. |
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loose_ends
Joined: 23 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Gopher wrote: |
| loose_ends wrote: |
| what's you point? |
what's me point? |
yes. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:34 pm Post subject: |
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yes? |
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loose_ends
Joined: 23 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:39 pm Post subject: |
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what was your point in making the comment you did? |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:41 pm Post subject: |
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| loose_ends wrote: |
| what was your point in making the comment you did? |
what was my point in making the comment I did? |
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loose_ends
Joined: 23 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:43 pm Post subject: |
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| Gopher wrote: |
| loose_ends wrote: |
| what was your point in making the comment you did? |
what was my point in making the comment I did? |
i understand. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:47 pm Post subject: |
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| loose_ends wrote: |
| i understand. |
Good boy. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 1:50 am Post subject: |
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| Posting nothing, as usual, goober? Good boy. |
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