Korean Job Discussion Forums

[thepeel]

Well, the point I want to make is that we can no longer trust the economic data reported by the United States government. And this didn't start with W'Bush either. And to some extent, it is the same with my govenrment too.

But when you hear unemployment figures, measures of inflation, debt, deficit and monetary data, I really think we all need to roll our eyes and treat the data for the fantasy it is.

If we were to use the measures of calculating GDP growth that we did in the 80's, this is what we have now:



Which means the United States is technically in a depression (3-4 quarters of negative growth). Why this doesn't feel like a depression is because of this:



Remember, the government stopped reporting "M3" just before dramatically increasing it.

So, they print all that money and send it to China, who then puts it under her mattress. The American economy feels like growth because China acts like a credit card. But in reality, it isn't growing but contracting.

This is going to be really, really painful.

And it will start with inflation. Which is out of control right now.




Am I wearing a tinfoil hat?

[fusionbarnone]

The value of a currency has been written-off overnight twice in Germany in the past. The question is how was expenditure raised to develop the means for war after reparations.

South America has experienced deveopment/underdevelopment policies for decades. Has similaries to policy making in New Zealand.

When the "New World" was discovered Spain owned the cow but the Genovese, Napolese, other bankers drank the milk.

The gold standard backing currency with real gold(hangover from the time when goldsmiths provided paper notes to borrowers using the gold in safekeeping left by the gold's owners) Real gold has been returning to europe since the end of the second world war.

Whenever markets "crash" property isn't lost but transfered to "new" ownership. During Nazi Germany with the use of Brownshirts and racist policies Jews were separated from their wealth including bank accounts and identities(used later by some) through extermination. A 1939 publication outlined how one German industrialist gained 2,400 factories and 13 banks during this time from "absentee" owners. This gives an indication how great the wealth grab was.

My two-cents is that most trade is agreements between transnationals. Just like the goldsmiths of old "conjuring" money/value out of air it is a means to recoup property and wealth amassed by the working peasantry(mortgage outfits et al).

The bright side is consumers are and always will be crucial to trade existence anywhere.

[Kuros]

[thepeel]

Sorry, the way CPI not GDP is calculated. The CPI changes are from changes in the methodology from the 80's. The GDP data is corrupted simply due to estimates, much in the same way many people now have much less of a net worth as their house is worth 30% less than they estimated it to be worth. The GDP as reported also does a terrible job of separating growth from inflation (if you print 20% more money and get 4% more growth, what is the real growth when the inflation is considered? How do you estimate this?). GDP is a terrible stat anyways. The destruction of hurricane Katrina would be measured as a net gain due to increased purchases of water, minor construction starts and others (only gains to GDP are measured, not losses). Bottom line is that GDP growth in a meaningless statistic unless you factor in inflation, estimate realistically and much more.

Here is SGS's explanation:
http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/article/id=344

And about the CPI:
http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/article/id=343

The first financial firm I worked for (for about a week, 6am-9pm ain't my bag) used SGS as a supplement to the official government noise and the in house work done by the economists. It isn't a quack site.

And yes, if you adjust the statistic to better reflect the size of the economy (in another currency, for example) then the economy is smaller than some would have it.

The large investment firms do not use government statistics other than as a gauge of what the "consumer" will think is happening. If you tell Joe Sixpack that the "economy" is doing well he will go spend more money on crap he doesn't need. Consumer spending goes up, unemployment goes down and all is well in the world. That is, until reality catches up with you. The large firms -have their own in-house economists that produce more honest assessments for the firm's in-house investment activity and advice to HNW clients. In other words, it is a scam.

[luvnpeas]

[quote="ontheway]It's not an issue of how you list the liabilities: there are accounts payable, taxes payable, accrued taxes, deferred taxes, salaries and wages payable, deferred compensation, short term loans, long term loans and a myriad of other possibilities under the catagory liabilities.[/quote]

That is the only issue I was addressing. Debt is not the same as liabilities on corporate balance sheets.

[ontheway]

Debt is one type of liability.

Liability is the category or set, debt is a subset. But in everyday English debt and liability are the same.

[luvnpeas]