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Is the Korean economy all that bad?
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 3:28 pm    Post subject: Is the Korean economy all that bad? Reply with quote

The KOSPI is at historical highs. The unemployment rate is low, low compared to western standards. The economy posts 4-5% growth every year since I've been here. Exports and current account figures keep growing. Samsung exceeds Sony in market cap. High oil prices makes Korean cars popular.

Surely there are problems on the horizon. The rise of China. But what modern economy doesn't always have future problems. That's the nature of economics. You always have to be looking ahead.

It just seems to me Koreans keep thinking about the '80s and '90s. The Asian tiger era. Rapid growth due to industrialization. Those days are over. Korea is a mature economy. Koreans have to deal with it. When was the last time the economies of western Europe or North America grew by 7-8% for 5 year stretches?
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eamo



Joined: 08 Mar 2003
Location: Shepherd's Bush, 1964.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Which is why I'm appalled that Lee Myoung Park got in on a ticket of increasing economic growth. It's the last thing Korea needs. More construction. Less restrains on the chaebol. Great.

Korea is doing just fine economically. What they really needed was a government who will focus on quality of life measures and decreasing the gap between rich and poor. Controlling prices. Especially home prices and food........... Park's not the man for that. He's in the Park Chung Hee school of economics. The only thing that matters is world GNP ranking. Park has promised to bring Korea up to no. 7............. Whoopee.
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Octavius Hite



Joined: 28 Jan 2004
Location: Househunting, looking for a new bunker from which to convert the world to homosexuality.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You're right. There is nothing wrong with the current growth numbers or the economy. But Koreans are obsessed with the past and with numbers/ranking.

They long for the Park days because they view them with rose coloured glasses. For all the economic growth he (and his successors) brought the people have forgotten about all the people "disappeared", all the hands cut off, the involvement in Vietnam, the tension with NK (and the terrorism going both ways).

As for ranking (and the Korean obsession with it), it drives the Koreans crazy that they are no longer the 2nd biggest economy in Asia. Now they are behind Japan and China (and I suspect India, but it all depends on how you count these things) and that is maddening.

I have never seen a people (or a media) so obsessed with these things. What makes it worse is the fact that despite being a developed, growing, dynamic economy, they continue to slide in rankings because these other countries (Russia, India, Mexico, etc) are pulling themselves out of poverty and are thus enjoying rapid growth rates.
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Beej



Joined: 05 Mar 2005
Location: Eungam Loop

PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 4:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Economic statistics and indicators dont mean a thing if you cant find a job. Finding a job is very hard for many Koreans, especially the young. Salarymen are forced to retire at the low to mid forties, just when they need their income the most. This oversupply of labor keeps wages ridiculously low, especially vis a vis the cost of living here.
So no, I dont think Korea's economy is in good shape.
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idonojacs



Joined: 07 Jun 2007

PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The last thing any country should engage in at this point, unless they are faced with the possibility of recession, is loosening monetary policies and artificially stimulating the economy.

The contraction of the American economy, combined with the bursting of the mortgage bubble, threatens to suck the economies of many nations into an economic black hole. It was artificial stimulation of the American economy by deficit spending and liberal credit policies that created this danger.

A conservative moentary policy with reasonably tight requirements for credit would help reduce the risk to Korea. Then, if the economy turned downward, they would have room to loosen monetary policy to stimulate the economy.

Also, when you artificially stimulate the economy when there is not significant unemployment, you risk triggering inflation, which once begun, is hard to stop. We can see in the stores price rises in a number of key commodities already. So this is another argument against fiscal stimulation.

Frankly, from what little I have heard about Lee Myoung Park's plans, it sounds like he could wreck the Korean economy.

On the face of it, electing a businessman sounds like a great idea. And a responsible businessman with a strong grounding in economic theory would be just the thing for the current perilous economic times. That's the theory.

But in America, the Republican Party, the party of business - big business - did anything but follow conservative fiscal policies.

If the mating of business and politics produces the same results in Korea as it did in the United States, I do not want to be around to witness it.
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Justin Hale



Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Location: the Straight Talk Express

PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 4:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I couldn't possibly agree more with Eamo, Octavius and Beej....but can Eamo kindly explain the following?



eamo wrote:
Park has promised to bring Korea up to no. 7............. Whoopee


I'm of the view that with Korean electrical goods exports and industrial capacity, it should indeed be in the top 10 ahead of the likes of Italy, who are #7 in nominal GDP. Korea is #12 nominal and #34 (thirty freaking four!) per capita, so I'm confounded by your comment above.
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The_Eyeball_Kid



Joined: 20 Jun 2007

PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Beej wrote:
Economic statistics and indicators dont mean a thing if you cant find a job. Finding a job is very hard for many Koreans, especially the young. Salarymen are forced to retire at the low to mid forties, just when they need their income the most. This oversupply of labor keeps wages ridiculously low, especially vis a vis the cost of living here.
So no, I dont think Korea's economy is in good shape.


Salarymen are forced to retire in their low- to mid-forties?! Prove it.

The employment market is only bad from the seller's point of view. It is just peachy from the buyers' perspective (ie the chaebol), and has been deliberately been created this way. LMB is only going to worsen this situation.
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crazy_arcade



Joined: 05 Nov 2006

PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 5:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Housing bubble housing bubble housing bubble

Very high oil prices make the Korean economy less competitive

Korean cars continue to concentrate on bigger oil guzzling vehicles and are popular in countries of the noveau rich. Japanese carmakers are the real winners when it comes to the ever-increasing oil problem.

The economy continues to grow but university graduates can't find work.
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eamo



Joined: 08 Mar 2003
Location: Shepherd's Bush, 1964.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 5:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin Hale wrote:
I couldn't possibly agree more with Eamo, Octavius and Beej....but can Eamo kindly explain the following?



eamo wrote:
Park has promised to bring Korea up to no. 7............. Whoopee


I'm of the view that with Korean electrical goods exports and industrial capacity, it should indeed be in the top 10 ahead of the likes of Italy, who are #7 in nominal GDP. Korea is #12 nominal and #34 (thirty freaking four!) per capita, so I'm confounded by your comment above.


Well. What do you need explained? Korea is currently ranked at 12th, 11th according to how you measure, in the world for GDP. LMP made an election promise that he can raise that ranking to 7th.
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