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U.S.: Home sales plunge, feed recession fears

 
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Tiger Beer



Joined: 07 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:46 am    Post subject: U.S.: Home sales plunge, feed recession fears Reply with quote

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071228/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy;_ylt=AkMgEsDC1DaXhGf0I9TYXJys0NUE

Quote:
Over the last 12 months, new-home sales nationwide have tumbled by 34.4 percent, the biggest annual slide since early 1991, and stark evidence of the painful collapse in the once high-flying housing market.

"I think you can classify what we are seeing in the housing market as a crash," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "Sales and home prices are in a free fall. The downturn is intensifying."


Quote:
Would-be home buyers have found it more difficult to secure financing, especially for "jumbo" mortgages � those exceeding $417,000. The tighter credit situation is deepening the housing slump. Unsold homes have piled up, which will force builders to cut back even more on construction and look for ways to sweeten the pot to lure prospective buyers.

"A lot of borrowers are being disqualified for loans. If you can't qualify for a mortgage the game is over. For those who do qualify, it takes longer to get loans," said Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight.

The housing market has been suffering through a severe slump following five years of record-breaking activity from 2001 through 2005. Sales turned weak as did home prices. The boom-to-bust situation has increased dangers to the economy as a whole and has been especially hard on some homeowners.

Foreclosures have soared to record highs and probably will keep rising. A drop in home prices left some people stuck with balances on their home mortgages that eclipsed the worth of their home. Other home buyers were clobbered as low introductory rates on their mortgages jumped to much higher rates, which they couldn't afford.

Problems in housing are expected to persist well into 2008 � a major election year.
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sojourner1



Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Location: Where meggi swim and 2 wheeled tractors go sput put chug alugg pug pug

PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, credit began tightening in late '05 or early '06. I worked for a mortgage broker last year from the first to the middle part of the year and only about 1 out of every 100 applications qualified for credit. I was a good salesman in getting the applications, but the customers couldn't qualify for credit which made me lose what could had been a good job in the corner office as I was a branch manager trainee. Turned out, the president decided to close the branch and consolidated all 5 branches to the home office since the market was and still is taking a dive. We were expecting at least 30% approval rate, but the computer didn't allow when we ran the applications through. This sucks majorly as I just wanted a good job in my career field after college. A good job that I can prosper and manifest a career in for the next 25 years.

If you can qualify by having a FICO score in the high 700's to 850, the max, then it is still attractive to refinance high interest credit card debt into a low interest equity loan. If you can qualify, you are most likely making good money and always pay your bills in full each month so you wouldn't be forced to have large credit card balances or need credit in order to live. Your $10,000 to $20,000 credit card balance at 18% interest refinanced into a 5.5% equity loan saves you a lot of finance costs if you can qualify in which many home owners did this from 2002 to 2005. The tightening of credit in the past 2 years made it where consumers can't take advantage as brokers and loan officers educated them to do since 2002.

I was just speaking with my best friend in Missouri who is a real estate appraiser and he says things are very slow due to people not qualifying for mortgages and the job market being poor, so people are just sitting tight. There were only 5 home sales made in December in his whole county of 150,000 people; a county that is mostly rural with several small towns. The job market is very sour for people who studied for a finance or business major unless they are already established. Even my friend only made $30,000 off of his business this year when it should be $75,000 to $150,000, so things are very tight right now with a deep recession looming over our lives.

Interest rates have actually been on the decline again this year by a whole point from 5.5% to 4.5% on a savings account, while the economic situation is not improving, but only getting worse.
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VanIslander



Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Geoje, Hadong, Tongyeong,... now in a small coastal island town outside Gyeongsangnamdo!

PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

34% decrease !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yikes.
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mistermasan



Joined: 20 Sep 2007
Location: 10+ yrs on Dave's ESL cafe

PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

we hope it will only be a "recession".
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What's the difference between a recession and a depression?
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Ilsanman



Joined: 15 Aug 2003
Location: Bucheon, Korea

PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 12:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Length of time.


Ya-ta Boy wrote:
What's the difference between a recession and a depression?
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 1:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ilsanman wrote:
Length of time.


Ya-ta Boy wrote:
What's the difference between a recession and a depression?


Now if only Calgary could take a hit like that Wink
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regicide



Joined: 01 Sep 2006
Location: United States

PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 2:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
What's the difference between a recession and a depression?


No one here knows the correct answer. Interesting.

Anyway. What difference does the situation of the US real estate market mean to most people here? Buying some US real estate soon?
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Atavistic



Joined: 22 May 2006
Location: How totally stupid that Korean doesn't show in this area.

PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 2:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

regicide wrote:
Anyway. What difference does the situation of the US real estate market mean to most people here? Buying some US real estate soon?


I will be fairly soon, yes. The way I figure, by the time I'm ready to buy a house, the market will be shit for sellers, good for me!
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Ilsanman



Joined: 15 Aug 2003
Location: Bucheon, Korea

PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 3:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A recession has a definition. It means 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. A depression? Not sure.

regicide wrote:
Ya-ta Boy wrote:
What's the difference between a recession and a depression?


No one here knows the correct answer. Interesting.

Anyway. What difference does the situation of the US real estate market mean to most people here? Buying some US real estate soon?
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regicide



Joined: 01 Sep 2006
Location: United States

PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 1:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
What's the difference between a recession and a depression?


When your neighbor loses their job, it�s a recession.
When you lose your job, that�s a depression!
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mistermasan



Joined: 20 Sep 2007
Location: 10+ yrs on Dave's ESL cafe

PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

before the 1930's, there were only depressions. the term "recession" came into use after the big one to signify a "smaller" downturn.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
before the 1930's, there were only depressions. the term "recession" came into use after the big one to signify a "smaller" downturn.


That's pretty much what I had heard, except for the 'smaller'. They are the same thing but politicians don't want to use the 'd' word and remind people of the Great Depression.
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fiveeagles



Joined: 19 May 2005
Location: Vancouver

PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 12:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think it is going to be the "depression" yet. Too many world economies are still booming.

I think it will be a short downturn and then with a big upturn for the next few years. Only if Obama or a Republican gets in.
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