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[stevemcgarrett]

American political history was made in Iowa in more ways than one.

Not only was it the first time for a Black presidential candidate to carry Iowa, the state opening the primaries, as the media has touted, but also this:

*Obama's candidacy lured younger female voters to his camp, surprising Clinton strategists. Nearly half of middle-aged female voters also swung his way. This fact hasn't been lost on HillBill, either.

But this phenomenon, too, was discussed on the networks.

**Obama captured most of the independents who lean Democratic. While that victory in and of itself was not surprising, what did surprise was that he attracted independents who were not only wary of Hillary, the institutional candidate, but Edwards, who is anything but that.

But even this development was mentioned in passing by CNN analysts.

***No, the real victory, and the most telling, happened among minority voters, specifically the growing Hispanic community in Iowa. They voted overwhelmingly for Obama and the Hispanic leadership in the state predicted he would garner similar support in other states. IF this does indeed occur, look for Obama to lock up the largest minority voting bloc in the U.S. (i.e. Hispanics now outnumber Blacks).

And there is more--what might prove in the general election, should Obama become his Party's nominee, namely the perception of him among white voters as a legitimate contender for the White House.

Older out-of-touch Black leaders like Andrew Young are aligning themselves with Hillary, who they feel has a real shot at beating the eventual Republican nominee. Part of this support is out of loyalty to the Party and part out of fear of backing a loser. While admiring Obama, Young insists he's not ready for prime time. Others question his race loyalty, in particular Sharpton, who says he hasn't passed the litmus test of legitimacy among his own people. But then even many Blacks who vote Democratic know Sharpton is an ignoramus.

Now never mind that Obama's bi-racial (half white) and that he's bright skinned. What the old self-important, self-appointed ambulance chasers on the Black Caucus haven't realized is that Obama is the FIRST Black candidate in the Democratic Party to actually demonstrate a genuine disdain for playing the race card, as William Bennett, now a part-time CNN analyst, noted yesterday. Of course, Alan Keyes was the first to go this route, but as a conservative Republican candidate. Keyes also lacked Obama's obvious charisma. And that's the other side of his appeal.

Say what you want about his supposed lack of experience, his relative immaturity, or his upstart campaign of college aged canvassers, but Obama has a voice that is deep and resonates with authority. He has poise and he commands attention. Yet he does it without theatrics, without appealing to the lowest common denominator of Black solidarity, which is a defensive posture. He didn't even bring up race as a factor in his win in Iowa (the first time that state had gone for a black candidate in either Party). Instead, Obama reminds his audience of his white mother from Kansas and how she shaped him, and he acknowledges his Kenyan immigrant father as well. He plays the bi-racial card in the same quiet manner as Tiger Woods.

And that is very appealing to white voters turned off by the likes of Jackson, Sharpton, and Moseley-Braun. He is NOT a caricature of himself and he doesn't play on "white guilt." That ought to also win over those Republican voters dismayed with their own Party who are reasonable enough, and magnanimous enough, to consider voting for the other Party nominee. Obama, in short, is eloquent, whether one agrees with his platform, and he avoids imitating King, knowing that adopting the Southern Baptist Black minister's tone as one who is not a minister, would turn off many in his own community (who find nothing remarkable about Black oratory).

Obama recognizes all these things but deals with them naturally rather than deceptively. He's not putting on airs. In fact, he's refreshingly unabashed, making fun of his name and other quirks of his personality. His energetic, vocal wife has thus far served as a fitting foil, though she could become less than an asset if she takes the limelight. Obama is also in possession of a campaign theme of hope, which he articulates each and every time he speaks. But the hope he champions is not the almost desperate appeal of Jackson's Rainbow Coalition, which tied it to the war on dope. He doesn't simple Simon rhyme his slogans, like Jackson, for entertainment value, either. Indeed, other than the message of hope, of possibility, he doesn't engage in platitudes. That, too, is refreshing.

Bill Snyder, a long-time CNN political observer, has noted that Obama is the only presidential candidate this time around who makes ready and frequent allusions to American history, albeit somewhat superficially. He talks of the "House Divided," and his tone is somber. And he talks of national renewal--of being one people--to a degree that draws those who might otherwise look askance at his candidacy, and label him entirely naive.

Obama probably won't win in cantankerous New Hampshire but if enough minorities in the South rally to him, and if the voting pattern of females and male youth becomes a genuine trend, look for him to rebound big by the first week in February. If Hillary continues to come across as the insider, the Iron Lady, and the left hand of Bill, and if enough independents in the Democratic Party are swayed away from Edwards, look for him to be their nominee.

And then he will be a force to be reckoned with. What do you think?

[Tiger Beer]

I read that Hiliary mostly attracted the senior citizen crowd more than anything else.

Anyways, it seems pretty consistent that most people are relieved to NOT see Hiliary leading this thing.

I was just thinking however, what if Obama wasn't in the race? Hiliary probably would look good overall if that were the case.

One thing is certain, Hiliary represents strongly divided politics with little compromise and littleworking together. If she were to get elected, I really don't see anything happening except intense bickering and immense backlash from talk radio, conservative radio, and just about everything else you can imagine.

I wouldn't want to be back in the U.S. listening to that.

[stevemcgarrett]

Tiger Beer:

I couldn't agree with you more. Hillary is very polarizing and despite her claims to the contrary, would prove more devisive than Bill. His former campaign adviser, Dick Morris, once aptly observed: "Bill is a moderate who can be a liberal when he has to be. But Hillary is a liberal who is moderate only when prodded."

Hillary is clearly very bright and well-versed in politics but can you imagine the distractions Bill would cause as an ambassador-at-large?

And, yes, every Rush Limbaugh on conservative air waves would take out their Clinton playbook and pounce on her every move. Sean Hannity has said repeatedly that he hopes she gets the nomination because half of eligible voters are already alienated by her.

I'd like to see a woman president but I don't think she'll be the one.

This nation needs substantive dialogue and compromise, I wholeheartedly agree.

Whether Obama is the answer remains to be seen. Edwards fascinates me because he's so anti-corporation and often talks like more than the class action suit lawyer that he is. Part of me likes the guy; he does have humble beginnings and I believe he really wants to reduce special interest groups (and his campaign has shown a genuine resistance to big donors to prove it).

But look for Hillary to utter something that will be seen as mean-spirited if her prospects for getting the nomination appear desperate. Bill will step in and we shall see some dirty Arkansas politics come to the fore. She'll have to walk a tight line though with Obama or she'll be viewed as a closet racist (not by him but the press).

[Ya-ta Boy]

[stevemcgarrett]

YaTa Boy:

I tend to agree with you that he could benefit from a few more years in the Senate. But then Kennedy wasn't exactly well groomed before he took office either. Indeed, Ike and LBJ looked on his candidacy with chagrin, although part of it was a generational shift.

Maybe that's what we're seeing here: a "sea change" among young voters similar to the 1972 election. But then I'm still pessimistic that younger voters will actually turn out at the polls in consistently high numbers over the next several months. Time will tell, to use the cliche, but at least they invigorate Obama's staff, which is important to house-to-house canvassing.

I'm not in for Obama yet--not by a long shot--but I think what we see is what we'll get. Can't say the same for Hillary or Huckabee, or Romney. It will be interesting to see who strikes a chord with Southern voters more: the populist Edwards or the change agent Obama (and he doesn't have those Southern Black roots to draw on since his father was an immigrant).

[stevemcgarrett]

It must be a major source of consternation to Hillary that she cannot continuously publicly appeal to the electorate to vote for her on the basis that there has never been a woman as President knowing that Obama could make a similar claim of neglect.

[Ya-ta Boy]

One of the most remarkable things in 20th Century American history was that during World War II and continuing into the Cold War, the US addressed and began coming to terms with its discriminatory past. While facing down 2 major philosophical challenges abroad we were able to revolutionize our society at home and take steps to realize the ideal of equality set forth in the Declaration of Independence. The Civil Rights Acts set the legal framework but could not change people�s attitudes. Only time could do that. With hardly a pause worth noticing, as soon as the Civil Rights Acts had been passed the nation turned to the status of women and began to complete the changes that began at the turn of the century when woman suffrage was adopted.

Obama�s success says that his message of �one people� has become ingrained and will not be repealed. It�s time to close that chapter and move on. Senator Clinton�s front-runner status in the polls for so many months clearly shows that that battle has also been won.

The only thing that would have been better than an Obama is a Barbara Jordan who could have symbolized the change for both racial and gender groups.

Obama�s election will mark the end of the 20th Century and the real beginning of the new.

If the spirits of the Founding Fathers are still floating around, you can bet your Fourth of July firecrackers they are beaming with pride and joy.

[twg]

[stevemcgarrett]

YaTa Boy:

Very well said, indeed, and I agree.

But leave it to the sniper, twg, to take a cyncial pot shot, not even making an effort to consider the historical context in which the Founding Fathers lived more than two centuries ago.

[Ya-ta Boy]