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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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 Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 3:57 pm Post subject: WSJ: Iraqi civilian deaths grossly overestimated |
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119984087808076475.html
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Three weeks before the 2006 elections, the British medical journal Lancet published a bombshell report estimating that casualties in Iraq had exceeded 650,000 since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003. We know that number was wildly exaggerated. The news is that now we know why.
It turns out the Lancet study was funded by anti-Bush partisans and conducted by antiwar activists posing as objective researchers. It also turns out the timing was no accident. You can find the fascinating details in the current issue of National Journal magazine, thanks to reporters Neil Munro and Carl Cannon. And sadly, that may be the only place you'll find them. While the media were quick to hype the original Lancet report -- within a week of its release it had been featured on 25 news shows and in 188 newspaper and magazine articles -- something tells us this debunking won't get the same play. |
Good points to consider:
1. 655,000 casualties is a lot considering fewer died in The US Civil War.
2. The timing and the authors.
3. Where the data came from.
I'm sure the Journal will call more attention to this issue in the future. It's important because we can't have the American public think that there were that many deaths in Iraq since March 2003; the actual estimate is closer to 65,000. While I agree that all deaths are tragic, consider who it is doing the killing. Jihadists, Islamofacists and unregulated insurgents and gangs have caused most of the deaths and bloodshed. US forces are there to prevent this needless violence.
Hopefully, things will stay clam enough for now to get their economy moving on the right track. Violence has subsided considerably in the past couple months. The security is there, I just wish the political will was there too. |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:16 pm Post subject: |
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That previously reported figure also had my eyes bugging out of my head at the time. If there was anything close to that figure, the place would have emptied out (and I know there have been refugees - but I quess more stemming from the region people lived in and the sectarian violence linked to that rather than Americans walking around killing everyone).
The media is f'ed up. I'll give the conspiracy theorists/anti-US brigade that point, but just not for the same reasons as they'll likely come up with in regards to this report. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:51 pm Post subject: |
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| caniff wrote: |
| The media is f'ed up. |
Mostly agree. It is their default sensationalist, muckraking posture that most annoys me. Do they not know any other tunes...?
In any case, the correct answer is this: we cannot say for certain what exactly is going on on the ground in Iraq. We are in a wartime environment, and I suspect media information all around in such environments.
Wait for the dust to settle and then look at the historical data. This may not satisfy people who want action right now this instant. C'est la vie. |
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chris_J2
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Location: From Brisbane, Au.
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:59 pm Post subject: Iraq |
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Recent news items are quoting 151,000 casualties in Iraq.
Still way too many.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=17993630
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That's a fraction of the more than 600,000 violent deaths reported for the same period by researchers at the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health in 2006, a survey that continues to be debated in the press and political circles.
Both studies counted civilian and combatant fatalities. Boerma thinks the difference in their findings is that the earlier Hopkins study visited far fewer neighborhoods and villages. Researchers working with Hopkins visited 47 so-called clusters; researchers with WHO visited more than 1,000 clusters. |
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2008/pr02/en/index.html |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 5:05 pm Post subject: |
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| chris_J2 wrote: |
| Still way too many. |
We ought to keep the facts behind the casualties and our commentary on what we think about them -- and indeed what we think about the war generally -- separate.
Otherwise, we remain within the confines of the value-laden shouting match. |
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igotthisguitar
Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 5:44 pm Post subject: |
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| So it isn't ONE MILLION? |
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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 7:15 pm Post subject: |
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| igotthisguitar wrote: |
| So it isn't ONE MILLION? |
It's nowhere near that number. Still, whether the number is 65,000 or 151,000, every life lost is a tragedy.
The point I wanted to make is that there those that sensationalize the war for their own political gain; whether it's George Soros or our resident mental patient. Also, using terms like warmonger and baby killer doesn't advance anyone's position. As I have stated, the US military is providing the security in Iraq so that one day Iraqis can enjoy the liberal democracies we all enjoy in the West. It's is the jihadists and unregulated gangs causing the violence. These same jihadists want to continue to destabilize Iraq. Indeed, they want to destabilize the entire Middle East.
As for the costs, there was, I still believe, a cost to doing nothing in Iraq. Saddam would have continued his murderous regime with his sons coming after him. The Hussains had plans for a type of pan-Arab nationalism that extended beyond Iraq. Generally speaking, I think going into Iraq was the right thing to do. |
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igotthisguitar
Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 7:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Pluto wrote: |
| igotthisguitar wrote: |
| So it isn't ONE MILLION? |
It's nowhere near that number.
Still, whether the number is 65,000 or 151,000, every life lost is a tragedy. |
Wow, i never would have expected that from you Pluto. Well said.
CNN was reporting yesterday it could be as high as 250,000.
There are problems getting the actual numbers though.
RON PAUL has been saying it's ONE MILLION.
Wonder what his sources are. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 7:31 pm Post subject: |
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| igotthisguitar wrote: |
| Wonder what his sources are. |
Ron Paul relies on the likes of Stephen Kinzer and Chalmers Johnson -- both openly antiAmerican in their writing. |
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ddeubel
Joined: 20 Jul 2005
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 7:36 pm Post subject: |
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So now the rewriting of history occurs. Even the dead get no place..... idiots.
You guys are just following like there's a ring in your nose. The media has done a LOUSY job and this is just a continuation of how they are capitulating .......
DD |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 7:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Still way too many. |
Indeed. Including a few who died in actually performing the newly released study. |
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chris_J2
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Location: From Brisbane, Au.
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 10:29 pm Post subject: Iraq |
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Gopher: I take your point on the need for objective comments, rather than subjective comments. But it is hard not to be emotive, when discussing the death of 151,000 people, which is still excessive. These are people being discussed, not fruit or vegetable statistics.
Pluto summed up my feelings best, with
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| every life lost is a tragedy. |
The long term scenario / prognosis, is that Iraq will be better off without Saddam Hussein, who was directly responsible, for the 1980-88 war with Iran (in which over a million people died), the invasion of Kuwait, the 'ethnic cleansing' of Kurdish people, & Gulf War I.
I sincerely wish US forces in Iraq, the best of luck, in conversion of Iraq to a stable democracy. They surely need it. |
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