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IRANIAN NAVY PROVOCATION: IS IT TIME TO CALL THEIR BLUFF?
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Gopher



Joined: 04 Jun 2005

PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You prefer McCain over Clinton, BB? Interesting. I do, too. But if it came down to that choice, it would remain a tough call to make. I would consider runningmates, potential cabinet members, and platforms at that time.

For one thing, it seems a no-brainer that Clinton would appoint Richard Holbrooke SecState. Have no idea who Obama might appoint. And that remains one of the reasons I seem him as unstable and unready.

Czarjorge: what does "political stability" mean to you and how do you go about measuring it...?
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 3:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm wondering if czar means something like this: During the Roosevelt New Deal era which arguably extended until the end of Carter's administration, the general thrust of American politics was liberal as it was understood at the time. Neither Eisenhower nor Nixon challenged the New Deal legislation, like Social Security. Starting with Reagan we went conservative. Then Bush's election in 2000 was by electoral college majority in spite of Gore's popular election majority. With 75% of the public dissatisfied with the current state of affairs, everyone campaigning on the idea of 'change'... unstable could mean the feeling that the country wants the status quo to change.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Latest news from the Strait of Hormuz: (There seems to have been a prelude to the incident the other day.)

US Navy fired warning at Iranian craft

CAIRO, Egypt - The U.S. Navy said Friday that one of its ships fired warning shots at a small Iranian boat in the Strait of Hormuz in December during one of two serious encounters that month.

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The USS Whidbey Island fired the warning shots on Dec. 19 in response to a small Iranian boat that was rapidly approaching it, said a U.S. Navy official.

"One small (Iranian) craft was coming toward it, and it stopped after the Whidbey Island fired warning shots," said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

It was the first official confirmation that the United States had fired warning shots in any recent confrontation with Iran in the Gulf.

In the second incident that month, the USS Carr encountered three small Iranian craft on Dec. 22, two of which were armed, said the official. The USS Carr did not fire warning shots, but sent warning blasts on the ships whistle, which caused the boats to turn around.

The reports come a day after the United States lodged a formal diplomatic protest with Iran over an incident Sunday in which Iranian speedboats harassed U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf.

Adm. William J. Fallon, the top U.S. military commander in the Mideast, said Friday that Iran runs the risk of triggering an unintended conflict if its boats continue to harass U.S. warships in the strait.
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stevemcgarrett



Joined: 24 Mar 2006

PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 11:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

YaTa Boy asked of jkelly:

Quote:
What's a Great Lakes Democrat? I've never come across that term before.


I'm from a Great Lakes state and my only guess is that he's referring to those pols in the region who accept PAC funds from Land of Lakes dairy. Just a hunch, though. Rolling Eyes

Jorge:

Hate to disrupt your profile of me but I'm an Independent, as I've said countless times before on this forum. I tend to vote Republican because of my overriding concern for foreign policy but I'm hardly a Bushie. I do, however, think that the first Bush had a great foreign policy team--perhaps the best since Eisenhower.

Still waiting for you to reconcile those apparently contradictory positions by Obama on Iran. In the meantime, will the real Barack please stand up?

Gopher rejoined:

Quote:
You prefer McCain over Clinton, BB? Interesting. I do, too. But if it came down to that choice, it would remain a tough call to make. I would consider runningmates, potential cabinet members, and platforms at that time.


I'll third that motion with the caveat that I'll take a longer and harder look at cabinet appointees. I overestimated Bush, Jr.'s ability to deal with Rummy (McNamara on steroids) and underestimated Powell's dislike of Rummy.

God help us globally if Clinton gets in. Maybe we can get Bill to sleep with the wives of some heads of state to extract information. Of course, if he chased after Sarkosky's fiancee and ex-model we'd probably lose diplomatic relations with Paris.
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thiophene



Joined: 15 Sep 2007

PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 3:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wonder how all yous would feel if IRanian ships were so close to your shores, albeit in international waters...the US has no good reason to be there...in my humble opinion.
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Czarjorge



Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.

PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 4:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Political stability as in politically stable as in the results of an ongoing political campaign seems to have clear results. Until the last two weeks the politicos and pundits seemed to have painted the election as over with Clinton winning handily. That is clearly not the case, hence politically unstable or lacking political stability. It would seem the country is tilting toward the left, the right and far right are perhaps willing to do something drastic to prevent that from happening. These are the same guys who reference Jack Bauer, a tv show character, in policy discussions.

Those that would support McCain, why? Eight years ago I was right there with you. I've grown to dislike McCain greatly. He has been complicit in supporting some of the greatest mistakes of the current administration. He has stood up for his ideals only insofar as they don't inconvenience him, re: the torture debate. He has been a tool of the administration and has lost my support because of this. I wondered for a long time if the Bushies had something that would destroy his life, polical or otherwise, and were using that to manipulate him. Of late I don't think that's the case. I think he's just a soldier. A good captain, but incapable of being a general, of making bold decisions. We don't need a stay-the-courser like McCain or Clinton, we need change.
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee



Joined: 25 May 2003

PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 5:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thiophene wrote:
I wonder how all yous would feel if IRanian ships were so close to your shores, albeit in international waters...the US has no good reason to be there...in my humble opinion.


Well on of Iran's threats is to close the gulf another one of Irans dreams is to take the gulf so it could use oil to blackmail the US. That was also one of Saddam's goals.

US forces are in the gulf not only to protect oil supplies which the US needs but also to support US operations in Iraq and to conduct missions against Al Qaeda.

If Iran just gave up their war there would be no problem with the US.
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stevemcgarrett



Joined: 24 Mar 2006

PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thiophene reprimanded:

Quote:
I wonder how all yous would feel if IRanian ships were so close to your shores, albeit in international waters...the US has no good reason to be there...in my humble opinion.


I'd settle for an informed opinion, thio. First off, the Gulf States are GLAD we have a naval presence in the Persian Gulf. So does the Royal Navy. Second, they are international waters and we have strategic and immediate military interests in the region (the Navy provides support to the other three branches of service). Third, the Straits of Hormuz are narrow, almost as narrow as Ahmadine-jihad's mind.

It almost sounds like you're condoning their provocation.

Jorge responded:

Quote:
Political stability as in politically stable as in the results of an ongoing political campaign seems to have clear results...That is clearly not the case, hence politically unstable or lacking political stability....


I sent this to my brother in London and he took it to the Imperial War Museum and gave it to his friend, a docent there, who fed it into one of the Ultra machines on display and they still couldn't break the code. Care to use the Queen's Orwell-approved English, or at least some variation thereof?

Quote:
He has stood up for his ideals only insofar as they don't inconvenience him,


I see. You mean like when he took his controversial stand on immigration policy knowing it would lose him lots of votes in the primaries? Rolling Eyes

Quote:
I wondered for a long time if the Bushies had something that would destroy his life, polical or otherwise, and were using that to manipulate him.


Man, this is rich. Yeah, I heard that Laura Bush has pics of him putting on lady's underwear in a White House dressing room. McCain is deathly afraid Cindy will find out. But seriously, I think they injected something into his near the jaw line on the left side of his face, perhaps a listening device, which explains his enlarged cheek there. Surprised

Yes, we need someone to change the diapers of domestic policy. And Obama is just the man to do it! Hey, he's only two years younger than JFK when he was sworn in, so why not? Better to have no memory than selective memory, eh? And it would be great fun watching his wife Michelle boogie down with the ambassadors at State dinners.
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jkelly80



Joined: 13 Jun 2007
Location: you boys like mexico?

PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great Lakes Democrats are more socially moderate than coastal democrats, and tend to be more hawkish on foreign policy.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Czarjorge wrote:
We don't need a stay-the-courser like McCain or Clinton, we need change.



But I would think change from Bush would be experience. Hope is what Bush ran on in 2000, and what we got was massive incompetence.

If you want to restore the image of the US in the world's eyes, meaningfully so, you have to do more than show them a minority Kennedy. You have to provide a competent US.

This competence has to appear in domestic affairs as well. It is widely known that the US has an inefficient healthcare system (it is not well known that the US provides free emergency treatment to those who can't afford it). It is widely known that the US has a high national debt and that Congress has a poor fiscal record.

The world has problems, and it always looks to the US, because the US is the most powerful. If we have someone show the world how to handle social programs, since the developed world is facing a singular social security crisis, the US will have changed the world. If we have someone show the world how to deal with Islamic fascism/extremism, since the entire world is facing this problem, the US will have changed the world. If we have someone show the world how to deal with global climate change, since Kyoto is struggling to stay afloat, the US will have changed the world.

The world hates us because as we've tried to hold the world in our hands, all we've done is drop the ball.

Competence, experience, pragmatism, and honor: these things would all be change. These changes might come from Clinton, and it could even come from McCain.

We don't need a liberal Bush.
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Gopher



Joined: 04 Jun 2005

PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Czarjorge wrote:
Political stability as in politically stable as in the results of an ongoing political campaign seems to have clear results. Until the last two weeks the politicos and pundits seemed to have painted the election as over with Clinton winning handily. That is clearly not the case...


Then you are not describing "political instability" at all; rather, you are describing "a lively election year." And McGarrett is correct: you are babbling in nonsensical, ill-conceived English.

Examples of real political instability? Pakistan the last few weeks. Iraq since the invasion. Places like Lebanon, Haiti, or Somalia. The United States suffers no such political instability (save, as I said above, the Civil War and perhaps the late-1960s; in both cases the federalist system did not collapse and indeed it prevailed, however).

We measure political stability by asking about constitutional continuity and transitions of power. Do politicians from opposing parties, for example Gore and W. Bush in 2000, tend to kill each other during contested elections? Questions like that.
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bucheon bum



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Czarjorge wrote:
We don't need a stay-the-courser like McCain or Clinton, we need change.


Politics is like any game: changing the players is quite easy; changing the rules and ways the game is played is a whole other story.

Gopher pretty much summed things up in regards to political stability. Be proud: you've come up with a new definition for the term.

And czar, if you really want change, I suggest you look at McCain and Obama's proposed policies towards global warming. You might be surprised which one is for greater change.
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thiophene



Joined: 15 Sep 2007

PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 11:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stevemcgarrett wrote:
thiophene reprimanded:

Quote:
I wonder how all yous would feel if IRanian ships were so close to your shores, albeit in international waters...the US has no good reason to be there...in my humble opinion.


I'd settle for an informed opinion, thio. First off, the Gulf States are GLAD we have a naval presence in the Persian Gulf. So does the Royal Navy. Second, they are international waters and we have strategic and immediate military interests in the region (the Navy provides support to the other three branches of service). Third, the Straits of Hormuz are narrow, almost as narrow as Ahmadine-jihad's mind.

It almost sounds like you're condoning their provocation.

I'm aware of why they are there, shooting down the occasional commercial plane and all, but I was just throwing out the question...main land USA is half way around the world, if Iranian boats, belonging to one of your greatest enemy, were so close to your shores (albeit in international waters), would you feel safe? Let me guess...Iran has no reason to be there, US is a peaceful nation.

I am ccondoning their protection of their sovereignty and security, youd' do the same, Canada'd do the same (well we wouldn't, we're too easy but many of canada would like to do the same). IT' funny you think they're provoking, when the USA ships are so far away from home. An Iranian boat doing this few thousand meters away from Tampa...well then they are provoking, but few thousand away from theirs...not.

I encourage you to carefully read my posts before concluding I am mis-informed. Although I do not know what GLAD is.
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jkelly80



Joined: 13 Jun 2007
Location: you boys like mexico?

PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thiophene wrote:
stevemcgarrett wrote:
thiophene reprimanded:

Quote:
I wonder how all yous would feel if IRanian ships were so close to your shores, albeit in international waters...the US has no good reason to be there...in my humble opinion.


I'd settle for an informed opinion, thio. First off, the Gulf States are GLAD we have a naval presence in the Persian Gulf. So does the Royal Navy. Second, they are international waters and we have strategic and immediate military interests in the region (the Navy provides support to the other three branches of service). Third, the Straits of Hormuz are narrow, almost as narrow as Ahmadine-jihad's mind.

It almost sounds like you're condoning their provocation.

I'm aware of why they are there, shooting down the occasional commercial plane and all, but I was just throwing out the question...main land USA is half way around the world, if Iranian boats, belonging to one of your greatest enemy, were so close to your shores (albeit in international waters), would you feel safe? Let me guess...Iran has no reason to be there, US is a peaceful nation.

I am ccondoning their protection of their sovereignty and security, youd' do the same, Canada'd do the same (well we wouldn't, we're too easy but many of canada would like to do the same). IT' funny you think they're provoking, when the USA ships are so far away from home. An Iranian boat doing this few thousand meters away from Tampa...well then they are provoking, but few thousand away from theirs...not.

I encourage you to carefully read my posts before concluding I am mis-informed. Although I do not know what GLAD is.


I'd like to second this and also add that the US had been f***ing around with Persian internal politics since WWII. We in effect removed their shah and replaced him with his son, and continued to screw around with their country until the theocratic faction gained control and pushed back on us. Whether or not our actions were justified in light of the Cold War is irrelevant as far as how Persians perceive the US' foreign policy.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 1:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The world has problems, and it always looks to the US, because the US is the most powerful. If we have someone show the world how to handle social programs, since the developed world is facing a singular social security crisis, the US will have changed the world. If we have someone show the world how to deal with Islamic fascism/extremism, since the entire world is facing this problem, the US will have changed the world. If we have someone show the world how to deal with global climate change, since Kyoto is struggling to stay afloat, the US will have changed the world.

The world hates us because as we've tried to hold the world in our hands, all we've done is drop the ball.


Kuros has said it about as well as anyone could.

I would add, in reference to the posts just above, if the US Navy packed up and left the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow, the entire world would go into shock and panic. No one except Iran wants Iran to be the dominant presence on the world's lifeline of oil.
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