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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee

Joined: 25 May 2003
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Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 11:26 am Post subject: Older Population to More Than Double |
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Older Population to More Than Double
Feb 11 08:08 PM US/Eastern
By SUZANNE GAMBOA
Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - Future immigrants and their descendants will account for most of the increase among working-age adults through 2050, but growth in the older population will outpace all other groups, the Pew Hispanic Center reported Monday.
The faster growth in the older population means costs per worker for programs that help seniors and young children, under 17 years old, will go up, according to the center's researchers.
"Future immigration lessens the load on each worker, but it's not a big effect. The dependency is going to increase regardless of what we do with immigration," said Jeffrey Passel, a senior demographer at Pew Hispanic.
The Pew researchers project that by 2050 the nation's population will total about 438 million, as long as today's immigration, fertility and other population trends continue.
Most of the overall population growth, 82 percent, will be the result of immigrants arriving between 2005 and 2050, as well as their children and grandchildren.
The number of working-age adults�ages 18 to 64�will rise from 186 million three years ago to 255 million in 2050. Foreign born adults will account for 23 percent in 2050 of the population, while non- Hispanic whites drop from 68 percent to 45 percent of the group.
But the nation's population of seniors, those 65 and over, will more than double in size to 81 million by 2050, largely due to baby boomer retirements, according to the report by Passel and center senior writer D'Vera Cohn. The last of the baby boom generation will reach 65 in 2029.
That combination will add up to 32 seniors for every 100 working age adults, up from 20 right now. Together with young children, there will be 72 seniors and children per 100 working-age adults in 2050, up from 59 in 2005.
If immigration were halved, there would be 75 seniors and children per 100 working-age adults and with immigration 50 percent higher, there would be 69 dependents per 100 of those in the working-age group.
"The reason this is going to happen is not what's going on in the future, it's what went on in the past," Passel said. "It's because our parents had so many kids."
The center's future population growth numbers are higher than those of the Census, which calculated a population of 420 million in 2050. The researchers said that is because the Census projects lower immigration numbers.
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On the Net:
Pew Hispanic Research Center: http://www.pewhispanic.org |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:35 pm Post subject: |
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As the US peaks at +400 million in 2050, Asian rivals will start to decrease in population, including China.
Korea and Japan are looking at their population declines to begin in the immediate future. China has 5-10 more years before the crest, and the decline looks like it will be more gradual. But China will be comparably better off since much of its economic growth is still about bringing rural farmers into a modern economy.
Europe will have a tough time, but given their solid socialist-market systems, Europe will fare better than many predict. France's birthrate matches America's, but countries like Spain, Germany, and Italy will start to see their social support systems strain. The EU would be in better shape if not for Eastern Europe's even lower birthrates.
The US has a relatively healthy immigration system which is primarily challenged by an open border with a 3rd world country. Immigration will be necessary to provide caretakers for the elderly, and to fill in jobs for which native-born Americans are reluctant to pursue. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994
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Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 1:38 pm Post subject: |
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As the tax burden grows, the anti-government, anti-tax people's reservations about mercy killing will decline. I predict massive traffic jams in the neighborhoods of Euthanasia Centers as gramps is hurried off to his reward. The anniversary of Dr. Kevorkian's death will probably become a national holiday. There will be an estate tax rebate for the elderly who push their own wheelchair into the gas chamber.
The prospects for the elderly in a society as materialistic and self-centered as ours is range from dim to bleak. The irony is that the argument used will be that grandma is being selfish and self-centered to want to go on living. |
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Nowhere Man

Joined: 08 Feb 2004
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Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 2:19 pm Post subject: ... |
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Soilent Green is MADE OF PEOPLE! |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 4:23 pm Post subject: |
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Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
As the tax burden grows, the anti-government, anti-tax people's reservations about mercy killing will decline. |
Aren't these the people who advocate death-with-dignity laws? |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004 Location: All over the map
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Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 4:36 pm Post subject: |
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We should start drafting old people for front-line military duty. Give granny an M-16 and point her in the direction of the enemy.
They could also be used for mine-clearing. |
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mistermasan
Joined: 20 Sep 2007 Location: 10+ yrs on Dave's ESL cafe
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Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 4:45 pm Post subject: |
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nah, let's award a no-bid contract to the vice president's company instead. their accountants have concluded it is more cost effective to kill 3rd nation workers than dedicated voters. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 4:59 pm Post subject: |
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caniff wrote: |
We should start drafting old people for front-line military duty. Give granny an M-16 and point her in the direction of the enemy.
They could also be used for mine-clearing. |
Who's comedy sketch is that from? I recognize it from somewhere. |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004 Location: All over the map
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Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:04 pm Post subject: |
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Kuros wrote: |
caniff wrote: |
We should start drafting old people for front-line military duty. Give granny an M-16 and point her in the direction of the enemy.
They could also be used for mine-clearing. |
Who's comedy sketch is that from? I recognize it from somewhere. |
I thought it was my idea, but my memory is for crap. Maybe I have seen the sketch at some point and it was a subconscious brain regurgitation. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:09 pm Post subject: |
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caniff wrote: |
Kuros wrote: |
caniff wrote: |
We should start drafting old people for front-line military duty. Give granny an M-16 and point her in the direction of the enemy.
They could also be used for mine-clearing. |
Who's comedy sketch is that from? I recognize it from somewhere. |
I thought it was my idea, but my memory is for crap. Maybe I have seen the sketch at some point and it was a subconscious brain regurgitation. |
Plausible, but the comedian also mentioned M-16s specifically. |
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Justin Hale

Joined: 24 Nov 2007 Location: the Straight Talk Express
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Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:12 pm Post subject: |
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Again, I can fix it.
We need to make having children financially attractive. It's as simple as that. The salary of a teacher perhaps? Would that be attractive to women on 6 figures and above? I don't know, perhaps not, but it would be to millions of women wasting perfectly good air in crap jobs they feel they've become liberated to do. The whole career-girl feminist idea needs to burn, because the evolutionary purpose of the female is to breed and those civilizations that breed less are dying out and must adapt or become extinct. It's expensive for the taxpayer, but I predict it being less expensive than ageing populations and shrinking workforces. State pensions should continue to exist as the necessary and moral aid they are to the poor and weak, but means-tested to an insanely more strict degree. Basically, all regular kinda folks should be priviate. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994
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Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:35 pm Post subject: |
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Quote: |
Aren't these the people who advocate death-with-dignity laws? |
I was thinking more along the lines of the social conservatives.
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We need to make having children financially attractive. |
Interestingly enough, Caesar Augustus made a speech about families having more kids back in about 1 AD. Somehow, Italy is still there 2,000 years later.
PS: I also think the next new Olympic sport to be added will be wheelchair races to the crematorium. 20 years of teaching high school did not lead me to have high expectations of the younger generation. Nine years of reading posts here at Dave's has only confirmed that conviction. A fair number of your generation should have been strangled at birth.  |
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Justin Hale

Joined: 24 Nov 2007 Location: the Straight Talk Express
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Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:54 pm Post subject: |
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Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
Interestingly enough, Caesar Augustus made a speech about families having more kids back in about 1 AD. Somehow, Italy is still there 2,000 years later. |
Gosh, really? I was under the curious delusion Italy was founded in 1861. Facetious I know, sorry, but I couldn't resist and take the point, but, statistical evidence needs to be presented for the claim to be significant. At this point, Italian women are having 1.3 kids and the world average is 2.55. I don't suppose it matters what the world average is. Anyway, a fertility rate as low as that means the next generation of Italians will be 61% the size of this one (because the replacement rate is 2.1). Got any stats on Roman fertility rates 2000 years ago for a comparison?
fertility rates |
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