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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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 Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:40 am Post subject: |
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| stillnotking wrote: |
| caniff wrote: |
| Looks like disarray to me. But I'm not Karl Rove, so I could easily be duped by his master plan. |
Karl Rove is a footnote to history these days; he's not even influential in the Bush White House any more, and McCain hates his guts (over the illegitimate-black-baby push polling in the 2000 SC primary).
My prediction is that the 2008 elections won't look anything like 2004. With no Darth Rove, and no Kerry to run against, the vaunted Republican slime machine will spend most of its time idle. There will be attacks, to be sure, but not the vicious politics of personal destruction we saw four years ago. The Democrats may get some mileage out of calling McCain an adulterer.
The Republicans may not be in disarray, exactly, but they're a lot less than enthusiastic about their candidate. They'll pull together in the general -- in these days of hyperpartisanship, it's hard to imagine any candidate getting less than 45% of the popular vote. Which is probably about what McCain will get. (Not that I'm an oracle, that's just a WAG.) |
I know Karl has been out, but I was alluding to his spirit - or 'Force' -if you will, that is scheming to pull a swiftboat or two for the big come-back to power up and win the game.
Goofy jokes aside, who do you honestly think stands a better chance against McCain in November at this point? I mull this issue, and I haven't quite made up my mind,
I like Obama, but I'd hate to see him get swept into an undertow that Hillary could have had the ability to keep her head above. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:59 am Post subject: |
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| As was said compared to Clinton Obama certainly has a big upside against McCain but he also has a big down side against McCain as well. |
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stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 12:46 pm Post subject: |
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| caniff wrote: |
Goofy jokes aside, who do you honestly think stands a better chance against McCain in November at this point? I mull this issue, and I haven't quite made up my mind,
I like Obama, but I'd hate to see him get swept into an undertow that Hillary could have had the ability to keep her head above. |
Obama. Not because I'm a supporter -- in fact, I became an "Obamaphile" without hearing him give a single speech other than the 2004 DNC keynote, precisely because I was so dismayed at the prospect of the party nominating Hillary. She is the least electable Democratic candidate I've seen since Dukakis.
The first reason is her baggage. A lot of it is really, really ugly and damaging, like this WSJ piece discussing Hillary's role in Bill Clinton's pardon of the FALN terrorists. Too many Democrats seem to have forgotten that the Clinton closet has more skeletons than Olduvai Gorge. The Republicans would have a field day digging up dirt, and eight months to throw it all and see what sticks.
The second reason is her negatives. A very large number of Americans simply cannot stand her, and would crawl through barbed wire to cast a vote for Anybody But Hillary. Not just Republicans, either -- she is regarded poorly by independents and many Democrats as well. She's seen as cold, calculating, willing to sell out anything or anyone in pursuit of power (and I'd argue this primary has proven that the stereotype is far from completely wrong). She is the ultimate Establishment Candidate, running in order to preside over the same chit- and money-driven political machine whose seat Bill warmed for eight years. Are young voters going to be inspired by this prospect? No. Are Republicans going to be inspired to prevent it? Yes. Alluding to the thread's ostensible topic: Rush Limbaugh has been trying to start a movement to keep Hillary in the race -- "Keep Her In So We Can Win". Tells you everything you need to know, right there.
This is why I find it so amusing when Hillary's spokespeople claim "Obama talks about change, but Hillary is change", when the opposite is so manifestly true. Hillary is the one using "change" as an empty and insincere slogan. We know that for sure. Obama may turn out to be a terrible (or eminently Clintonesque) President, but at least there's the chance he won't.
Then there's the hard data, of course. Even if one stipulates that head-to-head matchup polls mean little so far in advance, they're useful for determining the relative baseline of two same-party candidates. Obama outpolls McCain by a consistent 4 points or so. Hillary underpolls him by a consistent 2 points. And what about the primaries? Six months ago Obama was a longshot underdog few people had even heard of, and Hillary was the internationally famous former First Lady who had been talking about running for President for three-plus years. Now, Obama has closed that gap and is the frontrunner.
So. That's the long answer. The short answer is "Obama, because he's a better politician and a better human being, and voters respond to both of those." |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 1:24 pm Post subject: |
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That was a hell of a good reply (to all of us who may be asking a similar question). And you didn't even have to bring Hunter S. into it!  ( I know YTB took exception to that earlier).
Cheers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MT6VHguHtF8
edit: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVg8Ztn6sgg&NR=1
(Being a Masshole myself, I chuckle at local politics. And few places have had a more colorful local political history in the US than Boston.
For better or worse (some of both I suspect), our politics have been nationalized, sterilized, and robbed of the essence that used to be the stuff of movies (i.e. The Departed).
But I guess there is a sizeable percentage of people back in Beantown who harken back to those days of graft, vote-buying, extortion, etc, and think:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xWZsg-Y3Sk
Sorry, I was looking at Whitey Bulger videos (he is still on the 'FBI Top 10 Most Wanted' and that the guy in the last video testifying was his brother, the former head of the Mass. senate and later the president of UMASS. Many books written about those two bros.).
But I found this, so lets watch it together:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGv8PQr8Uo4&feature=related
Double edit: Warning: The last video may cause nausea. 
Last edited by caniff on Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:17 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| mithridates wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| mithridates wrote: |
The thread is about loons attacking McCain, and even trying to ascertain the worth of a candidate based on the opposite of what they think gives them a certain validity, when the reality is that they're just loons, and don't act as any sort of political barometer. Ever been the only guy in a group that a crazy guy on the street likes? It isn't because your personality is any closer to the crazy guy, it's because he's a loon. And the guy he doesn't like - he's not any farther away from the crazy guy in personality, the crazy guy's just a loon. That's why you ignore him. Same with these people. You don't spend the rest of the day talking about who's the least crazy by virtue of being least liked by the crazy guy. |
Ha, ha
Old wounds from the RP debates? |
 I don't remember ever having a debate wound. I discuss with people I respect, give others I don't know that well the benefit of the doubt, and skim past those that I don't learn anything from or are prone to long flame wars. It's all good here. |
Oh, jeez.
All I'm saying is, there sure were lots of loons here supporting RP. And you supported RP. And look at what you've typed. It's only half-serious. |
It's completely serious. Why use loons as a political barometer? Like I said, they're not to be used either way. There's no magic left-right political spectrum where you can find yourself a berth as far away from the people you least like and consider it correct by default. There are people that defy a placement on the scale, and other people who are simply loons, or the offline version of trolls.
Luckily the thread is back on topic now and the first page's 'let's compare our candidate with a loon to make sure he's cool and oh God I hope he doesn't say he likes my candidate y' has ceased. Don't you find it odd that these people are even given a twisted kind of credence by their detractors in that way? |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:18 pm Post subject: |
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| mithridates wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| mithridates wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| mithridates wrote: |
The thread is about loons attacking McCain, and even trying to ascertain the worth of a candidate based on the opposite of what they think gives them a certain validity, when the reality is that they're just loons, and don't act as any sort of political barometer. Ever been the only guy in a group that a crazy guy on the street likes? It isn't because your personality is any closer to the crazy guy, it's because he's a loon. And the guy he doesn't like - he's not any farther away from the crazy guy in personality, the crazy guy's just a loon. That's why you ignore him. Same with these people. You don't spend the rest of the day talking about who's the least crazy by virtue of being least liked by the crazy guy. |
Ha, ha
Old wounds from the RP debates? |
I don't remember ever having a debate wound. I discuss with people I respect, give others I don't know that well the benefit of the doubt, and skim past those that I don't learn anything from or are prone to long flame wars. It's all good here. |
Oh, jeez.
All I'm saying is, there sure were lots of loons here supporting RP. And you supported RP. And look at what you've typed. It's only half-serious. |
It's completely serious. Why use loons as a political barometer? Like I said, they're not to be used either way. There's no magic left-right political spectrum where you can find yourself a berth as far away from the people you least like and consider it correct by default. There are people that defy a placement on the scale, and other people who are simply loons, or the offline version of trolls.
Luckily the thread is back on topic now and the first page's 'let's compare our candidate with a loon to make sure he's cool and oh God I hope he doesn't say he likes my candidate y' has ceased. Don't you find it odd that these people are even given a twisted kind of credence by their detractors in that way? |
The antecedent for my 'its' in my sentence 'its half-serious' was my very statement about wounds. I don't think you have any wounds. I wasn't trying to make a serious point. I was just trying to lighten the mood. *throws up hands* |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:19 pm Post subject: |
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So now we are arguing about what the thread is or isn't about. Geez.
Mirth, with all due respect (and I have no problem with you and think you are a stand up person), but you are kind of nitpicking, |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Milwaukiedave wrote: |
So now we are arguing about what the thread is or isn't about. Geez.
Mirth, with all due respect (and I have no problem with you and think you are a stand up person), but you are kind of nitpicking, |
If you say so, carry on then. I see it as part of a much larger problem though, that of:
1) Trying to find a logic to people like Rush and Coulter, and
2) Caring about what they think.
2) in a sense is unavoidable because they do have a large audience, but 1) can be avoided. |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:24 pm Post subject: |
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| mithridates wrote: |
| Luckily the thread is back on topic now |
Mith, look above your post. I'm pretty sure I just took this thread out into left field. But I prmoise I'll stay out of it from now on unless I have something really important to say. Carry on.
edit: Mith's right. Back on target. My bad. I was feeding my cats. Time flies. |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Milwaukiedave wrote: |
So now we are arguing about what the thread is or isn't about. Geez.
Mirth, with all due respect (and I have no problem with you and think you are a stand up person), but you are kind of nitpicking, |
These guys are about as funny as a heart attack. |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:30 pm Post subject: |
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| caniff wrote: |
| mithridates wrote: |
| Luckily the thread is back on topic now |
Mith, look above your post. I'm pretty sure I just took this thread out into left field. But I prmoise I'll stay out of it from now on unless I have something really important to say. Carry on. |
 Oh yeah, that's really off-topic.
But come to think of it, off-topic was probably the wrong word for me to use and I'm a real fan of taking threads off-topic anyway. I can't think of a better expression for "based on a simple dichotomy that doesn't apply in real life" though.
Edit re: your edit: No no, off-topic is good. I don't want to be the 'let's keep things on topic' schoolmarm. Off-topic was the wrong word for me to use. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:34 pm Post subject: |
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| mithridates wrote: |
| Caring about what they think. |
But who on this message board takes their cues from Coulter or Limbaugh? Can you cite even one poster? The point is this: the American far right does. And the American far right will play its role in influencing Nov. 2008. If you care to understand what forces are at play in American affairs, you ought to pay attn to such loons because, contrasting with Ron Paul's "Do you like freedom?" mob, these loons will influence the election.
One way of interpreting this is to say that there is a barely concealed power struggle within American conservatism and the various factions and interest groups who make up the right to define what the Republican Party should stand for. If McCain wins, that will lead in one direction; if the people Coulter and Limbaugh speak for win, that will lead in another.
Last edited by Gopher on Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:42 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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| mithridates wrote: |
| caniff wrote: |
| mithridates wrote: |
| Luckily the thread is back on topic now |
Mith, look above your post. I'm pretty sure I just took this thread out into left field. But I prmoise I'll stay out of it from now on unless I have something really important to say. Carry on. |
Oh yeah, that's really off-topic.
But come to think of it, off-topic was probably the wrong word for me to use and I'm a real fan of taking threads off-topic anyway. I can't think of a better expression for "based on a simple dichotomy that doesn't apply in real life" though.
Edit: No no, keep it off-topic. I don't want to be the 'let's keep things on topic' school marm. Off-topic was the wrong word to use. |
No Mith, I really was completely off-topic. That wasn't an attempt at a backhanded dig against you.
I can easily go off on a tangent, I was only apologizing for my tendency to go loopy. You start the next topic:
(Make it a good one): |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:44 pm Post subject: |
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This is my last response because I think I have given the wrong impression to Mith, who I honestly do like.
No sweat, Mith. Enjoy your weekend. |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:50 pm Post subject: |
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| caniff wrote: |
This is my last response because I think I have given the wrong impression to Mith, who I honestly do like.
No sweat, Mith. Enjoy your weekend. |
No problem. And I think I'll get some sleep. I just read "Bush is ineligible for a third term in office" as "Bush is electable for a third term in office" in an article somewhere just now. |
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