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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee

Joined: 25 May 2003
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Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:18 pm Post subject: For all those who thought that China wll surpass the US |
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Experts: China's One-Child Population Policy Producing Socio-Economic Problems
By Heda Bayron
Hong Kong
07 March 2006
An elderly Chinese woman and a child are pushed along the streets of Beijing
China's strict family-planning policy of limiting parents to one child has made its population growth rate one of the lowest in the developing world. Experts say the policy is also leading to serious social and economic problems in the world's most populous nation. In this report, part of a VOA series on global population trends, VOA's Heda Bayron in Hong Kong examines the effects of the one-child policy. |
Question :
Who is going to support all those old people in China?
What effect will this have on China's future economic growth?
If China doesn't surpass the US you know what it means?
Get used to it.
The US may not be going anywhere. |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:28 pm Post subject: |
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haha. Joo. You love your country quite a lot, eh?
Yes, this will continue to be an American century. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee

Joined: 25 May 2003
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Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:57 pm Post subject: |
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Wednesday, January 31, 2007
China Getting Old Before Getting Rich
Following up from my last post on low Chinese labor cost observations, the Mercury Center (website for the San Jose Mercury News) has an article "China's Getting Old Before It Becomes Rich." It's an obvious story once you think about it, but has not been covered much. The gist: China's one-child policy reduces young people while better healthcare and nutrition increase the elderly. It's the U.S. social security crisis on steroids. In one estimate, the number of people over 60 will be larger than the entire U.S. in several decades. The crisis part? China is still a developing country even as it becomes an industrial powerhouse. So the challenge of feeding this number of seniors may be a nightmare. The one-child policy has been going since the late 70s, which would put those unborn kids in their 30s now--prime production years. And the move to capitalist ideals, including rural kids moving to cities to find fortune runs headlong into ideals about honoring and providing for one's elders. Yikes.
At the risk of an overly ridiculous analogy (I'll take ridiculous, but not overly ridiculous), this brings back memories of the era when Japan, Inc. was going to crush the U.S. And along the way, the geopolitical shift was derailed by Japan's banking system, real estate bubble, and more. I'm not dismissing in the slightest the massive impact I expect from the exploding Chinese industrial might, but just noting that a few twists may happen on the way to the party (or should I say "Party").
Posted by Dox O'Ryan at Wednesday, January 31, 2007 |
http://doxspot.blogspot.com/2007/01/china-getting-old-before-getting-rich.html
Anti Americans go f**k yourselves.
http://www.newamericancentury.org/ |
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mistermasan
Joined: 20 Sep 2007 Location: 10+ yrs on Dave's ESL cafe
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Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 12:04 am Post subject: |
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the chinese gov't never said the one child policy will last forever. yes, there are problems built into such a solution. how long can they go withsuch a population "mushroom" is a very good question. |
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Czarjorge

Joined: 01 May 2007 Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.
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Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 12:47 am Post subject: |
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The problems that plague Neocons are many, but the greatest one is their lack of imagination. Narrow, close minded thinking hidden behind 'realism' is still narrow, close minded thinking.
Those wily Chinese have lots of options. Cloning. Suicide, voluntary or coerced. A war with old soldiers. Hell, soylent ancestor might even be an option, Chinese cuisine works well with mystery meat.
Old white men, and people who want to be old white men, are on their way out. Accept it. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee

Joined: 25 May 2003
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Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 4:06 am Post subject: |
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Czarjorge wrote: |
The problems that plague Neocons are many, but the greatest one is their lack of imagination. Narrow, close minded thinking hidden behind 'realism' is still narrow, close minded thinking.
Those wily Chinese have lots of options. Cloning. Suicide, voluntary or coerced. A war with old soldiers. Hell, soylent ancestor might even be an option, Chinese cuisine works well with mystery meat.
Old white men, and people who want to be old white men, are on their way out. Accept it. |
That is some of your best poetry yet. Cloning how long will that take ? Don't they need time to grow up? Is this like Revenge of the Sith?
Neo cons so close minded perhaps but I didn't see any "progressives" more than a few of whom openly wish for the decline of the US noticing something so obvious when they talked of China surpassing the US. |
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Czarjorge

Joined: 01 May 2007 Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.
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Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 4:21 am Post subject: |
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I assume that cloning technology, if it becomes possible, will be shortly thereafter accompanied by the tech that allows clones to be aged more rapidly. It makes sense, especially in light of the potential for clones to be used as organ replacement vessels or for space exploration. (Then again, in the case of space exploration they could be educated while aging in some sort of stasis on the journey.)
Sidenote: Are verbs your enemy too? You often forget to use them.
You guys on the right take that term too serious. Politically right and right as in correct aren't the same thing. You're argument does have merit. It is possible that as the century passes China will experience a problem with their aged. But China's ascendancy is primarily to be driven by an increase in the number of their middle class and the accompanying increase in their power as a global market. Old people still work and still buy things, and with the medical advances that have taken place in just the last ten years it's crazy to think the next twenty years won't address some of the problems China might face.
Don't underestimate China. What I'm most surprised by is the lack of focus on India as a potential threat. They're our ally now, but who knows what can happen in the next few decades.[/i] |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee

Joined: 25 May 2003
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Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 4:32 am Post subject: |
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The US won' t have any problems with India cause they are a democracy.
Also India is a religiously fractured nation with incredible poverty they have a long time to go before they get to where China is now.
IF China can deal with their aged with new treatments then the US who is richer ought to be able to do it first. |
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Czarjorge

Joined: 01 May 2007 Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.
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Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:44 am Post subject: |
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India's economy is growing even faster than China's. They're about a decade behind, but they're going tech heavy. Look what that did for Ireland. We may not go to war with India, but we will probably battle economically in the same way we did with Japan in the 80s.
The US may not have access to certain treatments as jackass moralists have outlawed or limited certain branches of research. |
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Privateer
Joined: 31 Aug 2005 Location: Easy Street.
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Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 7:14 am Post subject: |
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Don't worry. The only ones who prefer China to the US are Chinese, and not even all of them. |
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blaseblasphemener
Joined: 01 Jun 2006 Location: There's a voice, keeps on calling me, down the road, that's where I'll always be
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Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 8:13 am Post subject: |
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Since when is Indian religiously fractured? That's the first I've heard of that. They have the largest minority group in the world, 160,000,000 muslims, and it doesn't seem like much of a problem for them.
Anyway, India only became a open economy in the early 90s. Before that, they modelled themselves on the planned economy of the Soviet Union, and aimed for 3% growth every year. They still have a huge civil service from those by-gone days. They have the benefit of rule of law and of democratic values, as well as other remnants of being part of the British Empire, including have English as a commonly spoken language. And, as mentioned earlier in this thread, they have gone the route of technological development, instead of the Industrial based economy that is bringing the Chinese environmental nightmares.
I'm putting my money on India, and in particular, companies that are tapped into it, like GE. |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 8:16 am Post subject: |
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blaseblasphemener wrote: |
Since when is Indian religiously fractured? That's the first I've heard of that. They have the largest minority group in the world, 160,000,000 muslims, and it doesn't seem like much of a problem for them. |
Wow. Maybe give the subject a close examination. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:28 am Post subject: |
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Czarjorge wrote: |
India's economy is growing even faster than China's. They're about a decade behind, but they're going tech heavy. Look what that did for Ireland. We may not go to war with India, but we will probably battle economically in the same way we did with Japan in the 80s.
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Hrmmmm, Japan.
Yes, the Japan everyone thought was taking over the economic world in the early 90s and fell into a decade-long economic slump.
A little tip: try not to undermine your argument with your own analogies. |
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blaseblasphemener
Joined: 01 Jun 2006 Location: There's a voice, keeps on calling me, down the road, that's where I'll always be
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Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:42 am Post subject: |
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thepeel wrote: |
blaseblasphemener wrote: |
Since when is Indian religiously fractured? That's the first I've heard of that. They have the largest minority group in the world, 160,000,000 muslims, and it doesn't seem like much of a problem for them. |
Wow. Maybe give the subject a close examination. |
Okay.
Quote: |
Religion in India
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This article is about Republic of India's religious demographics. For religions originating in the Indian subcontinent, see Indian religions.
The religious demographics of the Republic of India show a predominance of Hinduism (an umbrella term which includes many sub-denominations), accounting for 80% of the population. The second largest religion is Islam (13%).
The other natively Indian religions, Buddhism, Jainism and Sikhism taken together account for less than 3%. About 2% of Indians adhere to Christianity. Zoroastrianism and Judaism have a centuries-long history in India; each has several thousand Indian adherents.
More than nine-tenths of Indians state that religion plays a key role in their lives.[1] Though inter-religious marriage is not widely practiced, Indians are generally tolerant of other religions and retain a secular outlook. Inter-community clashes have never found widespread support in the social mainstream, and it is generally perceived that its causes are political rather than ideological in nature. India's religious diversity extends to the highest levels of government; the Prime Minister of India is a Sikh, the President of India is a Hindu, Vice President of India is a Muslim and the chairperson of the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is a Christian. The Constitution of India declares the nation to be a secular republic that must uphold the right of citizens to freely worship and propagate any religion or faith.[2][3] |
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Czarjorge

Joined: 01 May 2007 Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.
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Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 10:24 am Post subject: |
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Kuros wrote: |
Czarjorge wrote: |
India's economy is growing even faster than China's. They're about a decade behind, but they're going tech heavy. Look what that did for Ireland. We may not go to war with India, but we will probably battle economically in the same way we did with Japan in the 80s.
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Hrmmmm, Japan.
Yes, the Japan everyone thought was taking over the economic world in the early 90s and fell into a decade-long economic slump.
A little tip: try not to undermine your argument with your own analogies. |
What are you talking about, Kuros? Are you even following the thread? And I get criticized for one off comments.
For about ten-fifteen years Japan was an economic superpower and the US suffered economically because of it. Economies wax and wane as a function of their nature. It is entirely possible that either China or India could become economically transcendent. It's also entirely possible that our current economic slip could become the same kind of slump Japan has been experiencing for a decade. These are all predictions and suppositions. We'll have to wait and see. The point I've been trying to make is underestimating an opponent generally leads to a defeat.
Think NY Giants. |
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