Korean Job Discussion Forums

stillnotking · Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Location: Oregon, USA

Obama is taking full advantage of the early voting that the Texas primary allows. He is holding his rallies near polling places and telling his supporters to go vote as soon as they leave. His campaign has been on top of Texas' byzantine primary/caucus system from day one, while Hillary just found out this month that she could lose her "must-win" state even if she gets more popular votes.

Obama in TX by 5-10 points. OH will be close; not sure yet how that one will go, but given Obama's trendlines in the polls he could easily win it too.

Adventurer · Joined: 28 Jan 2006

Milwaukiedave · Joined: 02 Oct 2004 Location: Goseong

I think Texas is going to be a surprise win for Obama. Ohio I think he will lose by about 5%, but still pick up some delegates.

Here are the latest polls with the Real Clear Politics Average taken from the first four:

RCP Average 02/15 - 02/20 - 48.8 46.0 Clinton +2.8

Rasmussen 02/20 - 02/20 549 LV 47 44 Clinton +3.0
ABC/Wash Post 02/16 - 02/20 603 LV 48 47 Clinton +1.0
SurveyUSA 02/16 - 02/18 660 LV 50 45 Clinton +5.0
CNN 02/15 - 02/17 529 LV 50 48 Clinton +2.0

These were done just after Virginia, Louisana, Nebraska and Washington voted:

Rasmussen 02/14 - 02/14 577 LV 54 38 Clinton +16.0
InsiderAdvantage 02/14 - 02/14 403 LV 48 41 Clinton +7.0
ARG* 02/13 - 02/14 600 LV 42 48 Obama +6.0
TCUL/Hamilton 02/11 - 02/13 400 LV 49 41 Clinton +8.0

Hater Depot · Joined: 29 Mar 2005

As I posted in another thread the Clinton campaign is already downplaying the importance of Texas, after two weeks of hyping it. I think that is the first solid indication that they plan to take this all the way to the convention.

Milwaukiedave · Joined: 02 Oct 2004 Location: Goseong

HD,

You may be right. As I said, I think she may win narrowly in Ohio, but I think Texas is going to go for Obama. Vermont and Rhode Island are the same day. Wyoming is on the 8th of March and Mississippi on the 11th. I haven't seen polls on the other four (besides Ohio and Texas)

After that there is a pretty long break until Pennsylvania April 22nd.

If she takes it all the way to the convention, theres going to be a floor fight over Florida and Michigan. That's not going to be pretty.

stevemcgarrett · Joined: 24 Mar 2006

MD reported:

Milwaukiedave · Joined: 02 Oct 2004 Location: Goseong

It will be interesting to see how much Obama raised this month.

Clinton raises $35 million in 1 month By JIM KUHNHENN, Associated Press Writer

Thu Feb 28, 4:45 PM ET

WASHINGTON - More than doubling her January fundraising total, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's advisers said Thursday that she will raise $35 million in February, a figure rival Sen. Barack Obama's campaign said it would surpass.

The $35 million would be Clinton's biggest fundraising mark yet and represents a remarkable recovery for her campaign. Obama raised more than she did last month, $36 million to $14 million, and she was forced to lend her campaign $5 million.

"It was incredibly gratifying to see people come forth with this vote of confidence in me," Clinton told reporters in Hanging Rock, Ohio. "Obviously this is a tremendous benefit to my campaign."

Obama's campaign, reacting promptly to her campaign announcement, promised an even higher number but divulged no totals.

"We've raised considerably more than that," Obama spokesman Bill Burton said.

Obama told reporters on his campaign plane, "I have no idea how much money we've raised, but we've been paying our bills. Right now, I believe we're doing very good."

That would make February an astounding fundraising month for the Democrats. At that rate, both candidates would break records for contestants in a primary fight.

Clinton has been struggling to recover from weak fundraising in January, when she raised nearly $14 million to Obama's $36 million.

Clinton officials, including campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe, announced the totals in a conference call with contributors. The campaign announced that it had raised the money from 300,000 donors, including 200,000 new contributors, most of them donating through the Internet. Aides said almost all the money was for the primary election.

"We have resources to play in big states coming up: Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont and states beyond," McAuliffe said.

Despite her increased fundraising, Obama is still outspending her in the crucial March 4 primary states of Ohio and Texas. As of Tuesday, Obama had spent a total of $7.5 million in advertising in the two states. Clinton had spent $4.6 million.

Obama also was getting help from labor unions. The Service Employees International Union began spending $1.4 million on ads supporting Obama in Ohio and Texas. The United Food and Commercial Workers International Union was spending nearly $200,000 on ads in Ohio.

"We are facing a real wall of money from the Barack Obama campaign," senior adviser Harold Ickes acknowledged during the call. "But based on everything we know today, we are confident we have very strong operations there."

Clinton said reports of her relatively weak fundraising in January and her decision to lend the campaign $5 million started a wave.

"People want this campaign to go on," she said. "It just set off a chain reaction around the country. People start paying attention at different points in a campaign. Now people are engaged."

stevemcgarrett · Joined: 24 Mar 2006

Dave, the Oregonian:

I don't think any of the pundits or campaign managers predicted Obama would receive such a groundswell of donations, but he has. This is the clearest indicator of a national mood for change that I've seen since Reagan blew past Carter. It is refreshing to us but scary as all get-up to party insiders like the Clintons. Why? Because it's something that is beyond the reach of their tentacles. Gotta love it.

To reiterate: if Obama wins big in Texas, it's all over Baby Blue.