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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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 Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2008 10:36 pm Post subject: Who will bell Hillary? |
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February 25, 2008
Who Will Bell Hillary?
By Robert Novak
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Even before Sen. Barack Obama won his ninth-straight contest against Sen. Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin last Tuesday, wise old heads in the Democratic Party were asking this question: Who will tell her that it's over, that she cannot win the presidential nomination and the sooner she leaves the race the more it will improve chances of defeating Sen. John McCain in November?
In an ideal though unattainable world, Clinton would have dropped out when it became clear even before Wisconsin that she could not be nominated. The nightmare scenario was that she would win in Wisconsin, claiming a "comeback" that would propel her to narrow victories in Texas and Ohio March 4. That still would not cut her a path to the nomination. Telling her then to end her candidacy and avoid a bloody battle stretching to the party's Denver national convention might not be achievable.
The Democratic dilemma recalls the Republican problem, in a much different context, 34 years ago, when GOP graybeards asked: "Who will bell the cat?" -- go to Richard M. Nixon and inform him he had lost his support in the party and must resign the presidency. Sen. Barry Goldwater successfully performed that mission in 1974, but there is no Goldwater facsimile in today's Democratic Party (except for Sen. Ted Kennedy, who could not do it because he has endorsed Obama).
Clinton's rationale for remaining a candidate is the Texas-Ohio parlay on March 4, with pre-Wisconsin polls giving her a comfortable lead in both states. But Texas has become a dead heat, and her Ohio margin is down to single digits. Gov. Ted Strickland, Clinton's leading endorser in Ohio, is reported following the Wisconsin returns to privately have expressed concern as to whether he could hold the state for her in the ensuing two weeks. If she ekes out a win in Ohio while losing Texas, who then will bell Hillary?
The inevitability of Clinton becoming the first female president was based on her dominance over weak fields in both parties. McCain was the one Republican who worried Democratic strategists, and he appeared dead three months ago. Mitt Romney, the then-likely Republican nominee, was viewed in Democratic circles as unelectable.
Obama's improbable candidacy always worried Clinton insiders, which explains the whispering campaign that the Illinois neophyte would prove vulnerable to Republican onslaught as the presidential nominee. That private assault continues to this day, with Obama described as a latter-day George McGovern whose career record of radical positions will prove easy prey for GOP attack dogs.
But Clinton could not go before Democratic primary voters and assail Obama for being too far to the left. Instead, she insinuated moral turpitude by asserting that Obama had not been "vetted." When that backfired, she claimed plagiarism by Obama in lifting a paragraph from a speech by his friend and supporter Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick -- an approach that yielded mainly derisive laughter among politicians.
I listened in on last Wednesday's news media conference calls by Clinton campaign managers Mark Penn and Harold Ickes in the wake of her Wisconsin drubbing. Incredibly, they were hawking the same plagiarism charge that had proved ineffective. Clinton herself raised the bogus issue again in Thursday night's debate from Austin and was rewarded with boos from the Democratic audience.
Clinton's burden is not only Obama's charisma but also McCain's resurrection. Some of the same Democrats who short months ago were heralding her as the "perfect" candidate now call her a sure loser against McCain, saying she would do the party a favor by just leaving.
Clinton's tipping point may have come when it was announced that her $5 million loan to her campaign came from a joint fund she shares evenly with Bill Clinton. That puts into play for the general election business deals by the former president that had transformed him from an indigent to a multimillionaire and excite interest in their income tax returns, which the Clintons refuse to reveal. The prospect impels many Democratic insiders to pray for clear Obama victories on March 4 that they hope will make it unnecessary for anybody to beg Hillary Clinton to end her failed campaign. |
I certainly don't think anyone on her campaign could, especially given their latest string of losses. I also don't think Dean would go tell Hillary it's time to go either. My bet is on Bill. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2008 10:48 pm Post subject: |
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Let's start with the Hillary's-campaign-is-hurting-the-party assumption. It is just that: an assumption.
Let's start with the foregone conclusion that this race is over. Its a little early to be calling it, but it seems to be the CW. So, what use could Hillary's campaign have? If he can't overcome Hillary, then he's not the best man for the job. Secondly, it should season Obama and give the campaign practice. Better to air out the disagreements amongst allies (I won't go far as to say friends).
Hillary's attacks are actually quite mild. You think the GOP is going to seize on Barack H. Obama's plaigarism? Nah. His past drug use? Maybe. But, I think they'll just throw coded racism at him. So, in the end, Hillary's attacks will probably not season Obama. They won't hurt him either, unless of course, they sway voters to vote for her instead of Barack. |
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nicholas_chiasson
Joined: 14 Jun 2007
Location: Samcheok
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| Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2008 11:01 pm Post subject: |
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| For every swing voter who won't vote for Obama over race, there are 2 who will vote against McCain over the war. |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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| Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2008 11:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| Hillary's attacks are actually quite mild. You think the GOP is going to seize on Barack H. Obama's plaigarism? Nah. His past drug use? Maybe. But, I think they'll just throw coded racism at him. So, in the end, Hillary's attacks will probably not season Obama. They won't hurt him either, unless of course, they sway voters to vote for her instead of Barack. |
By the way, I never said the race was over, those were Novack's words. I think March 4th will be a strong test as to whether or not HC can regain her footing.
I'm glad you are saying Hillary's attacks are "quite mild". It goes to show you are a hypocrite and excuse her behavior. If the shoes on the other foot, imagine the moral outrage.
Of course given the 10 minute tirades coming out of the Clinton camp's surrogates, what more (or less in this case) should we expect?
Last edited by Milwaukiedave on Sun Feb 24, 2008 11:08 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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| Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2008 11:06 pm Post subject: |
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| By the way, you should really watch Meet The Press. They had examples of Hillary Clinton doing the same thing. Of course that doesn't count. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2008 11:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Milwaukiedave wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| Hillary's attacks are actually quite mild. You think the GOP is going to seize on Barack H. Obama's plaigarism? Nah. His past drug use? Maybe. But, I think they'll just throw coded racism at him. So, in the end, Hillary's attacks will probably not season Obama. They won't hurt him either, unless of course, they sway voters to vote for her instead of Barack. |
I'm glad you are saying Hillary's attacks are "quite mild". It goes to show you are a hypocrite and excuse her behavior. If the shoes on the other foot, imagine the moral outrage.
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How am I a hypocrite?
As for moral outrage, why don't you canvass the rest of the forum to recall how morally outraged I was back when it was Barack doing all the attacking and Hillary was the frontrunner.
The challenger attacks, the frontrunner sustains the blows. There's no morality to it. So far, Hillary hasn't gone too far. And weak attacks (she's made a few) only hurt her |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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| Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2008 11:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| Milwaukiedave wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| Hillary's attacks are actually quite mild. You think the GOP is going to seize on Barack H. Obama's plaigarism? Nah. His past drug use? Maybe. But, I think they'll just throw coded racism at him. So, in the end, Hillary's attacks will probably not season Obama. They won't hurt him either, unless of course, they sway voters to vote for her instead of Barack. |
I'm glad you are saying Hillary's attacks are "quite mild". It goes to show you are a hypocrite and excuse her behavior. If the shoes on the other foot, imagine the moral outrage.
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How am I a hypocrite?
As for moral outrage, why don't you canvass the rest of the forum to recall how morally outraged I was back when it was Barack doing all the attacking and Hillary was the frontrunner.
The challenger attacks, the frontrunner sustains the blows. There's no morality to it. So far, Hillary hasn't gone too far. And weak attacks (she's made a few) only hurt her |
I agree with you that the attacks only hurt her, but her nastiness hurts the party as well. In fact that what may be killing the party. To say she has only made a few is minimizing (quite a bit).
Even though Obama leads in delegates, I wouldn't for a second pit him as the "front runner" in the campaign.
I honestly wouldn't bet on HC putting aside her own feelings and doing a group hug for party unity when this is over and if she loses the nomination. She'll disappear back into the US Senate and rarely be heard from. |
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Adventurer
Joined: 28 Jan 2006
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| Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2008 11:43 pm Post subject: |
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| What about the people who said Hillary Clinton needs a landslide in Texas? That doesn't seem possible based on the polls. She is somewhat popular among Hispanics and white females. It's not enough for a landslide. I can't see Hillary Clinton winning. I could be wrong. She is definitely qualified for the job, but I can't believe this talk about her not supporting Nafta. It's interesting that Obama was the underdog, and now HC is the underdog. Even if Obama doesn't win, he has done a very good job. The question is can he take on McCain? McCain is very well respected among people from both parties. He is well-liked. I like him as I also like Colin Powell. |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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| Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2008 11:56 pm Post subject: |
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Adventurer,
To give you a snapshot of what's at stake March 4th. Assuming no movement in Superdelegates:
Texas 193
Ohio 141
Rhode Island 21
Vermont 15
Total 370
Clinton would need to win 235/135 to bring the total delegates even. |
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agentX
Joined: 12 Oct 2007
Location: Jeolla province
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| Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 12:54 am Post subject: |
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| It ain't over till the fat lady sings. I'm guessing she'll sing in April. |
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mistermasan
Joined: 20 Sep 2007
Location: 10+ yrs on Dave's ESL cafe
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| Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 1:02 am Post subject: |
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| who ever gets the DEM nod gets the oval office. the GOP has 0 chance. |
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stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
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| Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 9:56 am Post subject: |
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It's a different situation than Nixon faced, because we are in the middle of an election, not trying to overturn the results of one. The only thing that's necessary for Hillary to be forced out of the race is for the voters (in this case, the super delegates) to come down big for Obama. Once that happens, she's done. I think it'll happen right after TX/OH.
Hillary has lost 2 super delegates in the last two weeks. Obama has gained 25. If Hillary loses either Texas or Ohio, the floodgates open and it becomes obvious to everyone -- including HRC -- that she cannot win. At that point she will drop out.
She already knows this is coming. There was an NYT piece yesterday about the "new mood" in her campaign, and while they were careful not to come out and say that she has given up (and I'm sure she hasn't), she now recognizes the strong possibility that she will not be the nominee. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 10:04 am Post subject: |
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| mistermasan wrote: |
| who ever gets the DEM nod gets the oval office. the GOP has 0 chance. |
when was the last time a liberal dem was elected?
and if Nader runs the Democrats start with a 0.3% handicap.
Follow the Poll of polls. |
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jkelly80
Joined: 13 Jun 2007
Location: you boys like mexico?
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| Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 10:18 am Post subject: |
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| She'll probably win in Ohio by a decent margin, but her delegate totals are dependent on the congressional district breakdown. If she can gain 20-30 delegates on Obama, which doesn't seem very out of the ordinary, there would be no reason for her to drop out, especially considering that she thinks she 'deserves' it this time around. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 10:33 am Post subject: |
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| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
| mistermasan wrote: |
| who ever gets the DEM nod gets the oval office. the GOP has 0 chance. |
when was the last time a liberal dem was elected?
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Neither Obama or Clinton are that liberal.
On a European scale they'd each be considered centrists.
The real liberals, Kucinich and maybe Edwards, are long gone.
Anyway, in general partisan breakdown polls (where candidates nor offices are mentioned) Democrats are preferred by double-digits over the GOP. |
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