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[regicide]

Obama Surges Past Clinton, Trails McCain on Security, Poll Says

Heidi Przybyla
Tue Feb 26, 5:01 PM ET



Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama has surged ahead of Hillary Clinton in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination, though he would face a tough general election against Republican John McCain, who enjoys a huge advantage on national-security issues.


A new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey shows Obama is preferred by Democratic primary voters 48 percent to 42 percent, the first time he has overtaken Clinton in a Bloomberg/Times poll. In a general-election match-up among registered voters, McCain is 2 points ahead of Obama, within the margin of error; he beats Clinton by 6 points.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080226/pl_bloomberg/ahnnsv_juubw

[Ya-ta Boy]

According to RealClearPolitics Poll average, it's McCain 43.5, Obama 46.7.

The polls have not been very accurate this time around. Obama has been pulling something like 10% above his polling numbers in the various states.

The majority of the public still isn't paying much attention. It never does this early. It will be mid-summer or later before people in general get serious about looking at the candidates.

Current RCP averages in Ohio:
Clinton: 49.3
Obama: 42.5

in Texas:
Obama: 47.7
Clinton: 46.5

I don't know why, but I think the final vote in both states will be similar to the last several states--something like 60% for Obama.

[Milwaukiedave]

Ya-ta,

I doubt it's going to be that high for Obama (granted I was the one who said Wisconsin would be close and I was wrong). Between Texas and Ohio, I think it's going to be a split decision with Texas going for Obama and Ohio going for Clinton. RI and Vermont don't have enough electoral strength to weigh in very heavily unless Texas and Ohio go both for Clinton or both for Obama.

We'll see if the polls change any after this last debate. I kind of think the debate didn't make much of a difference either way.

[stillnotking]

The debates aren't changing anything. However, Obama has a far superior ground game in both OH and TX, which will make a big difference.

Obama will win TX by five to ten points. OH will be very close, and regardless who "wins", neither candidate will come out with a big net delegate gain.

Clinton drops out on March 5 or shortly thereafter. This thing is over with; Hillary has no more cards to play.

[stevemcgarrett]

Obama isn't likely to make up all the ground he needs in Texas to win but if he does, if his grassroots support grows, then the Fat Lady should sing at the Houston Rodeo.

Clinton will likely take Ohio if only because they're hasn't been much movement in the numbers or the buzz over the past month in that locale. And Bill is right; she loses Ohio at her own peril.

It doesn't bode well, however, when Chelsea has become the most vocal in her choir. Bill's mumbling from the back row for the moment.

Still, I expect a final dying gasp of dirty politics from Hill-Billy before Obama wraps up the nomination, superdelegate pull or not.

Hillary simply cannot continue to carry off her calm demeanor--at some point the strain of campaigning and her second nature are going to lead to some histrionics, and that will turn off independents leaning her way.

Obama is simply unflappable; he doesn't need to practice it, either. It's in his nature, which is why he looks more presidential.

[mithridates]

[Ya-ta Boy]

[Funkdafied]

I'm delighted, he's going to be excellent not only for america but for the whole world.