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$1 = 915 KRW in March (Wishful thinking or Plausible)?

 
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CeleryMan



Joined: 12 Apr 2007
Location: Seoul
PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2008 12:15 am    Post subject: $1 = 915 KRW in March (Wishful thinking or Plausible)? Reply with quote
Amigos,

I'm getting that itch again to engage in some serious F/X arbitrage and would appreciate ya'lls feedback with respect to the almighty $US Dollar.

How do you think the current exhange rate will hold up in the short term (30 days) versus long term (90 days)? My gut tells there could be some major volatility this month which might not necessarily be a good thing.

I'm praying for a $1 USD = 915 KRW scenario in March... wishful thinking?

Thanks in advance for your comments
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Whistleblower



Joined: 03 Feb 2007
PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2008 2:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
The economy is just like the good old IMF days. The price of gold is skyrocketing, food is becoming more expensive as well as oil. Also watch the dollar fall against all the other currencies.

When the siht hits the fan, Koreans will be blaming us again, just like the Asian Financial Crisis. Save your money in Korea as it is going to be another rocky year for the world, economically.
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victorology



Joined: 10 Sep 2007
PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2008 3:32 am    Post subject: Re: $1 = 915 KRW in March (Wishful thinking or Plausible)? Reply with quote
CeleryMan wrote:
Amigos,

I'm getting that itch again to engage in some serious F/X arbitrage and would appreciate ya'lls feedback with respect to the almighty $US Dollar.

How do you think the current exhange rate will hold up in the short term (30 days) versus long term (90 days)? My gut tells there could be some major volatility this month which might not necessarily be a good thing.

I'm praying for a $1 USD = 915 KRW scenario in March... wishful thinking?

Thanks in advance for your comments


Personally, I think it's wishful thinking. I think lower interest rates has already been factored into the valuation and Korea might lower theirs. Another big factor is foreign money leaving the Korean stock market. Tough to say where it would go but even if the won gained in value, I don't think you'd see 915.
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Wangja



Joined: 17 May 2004
Location: Seoul, Yongsan
PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2008 3:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
I would not be surprised: I have long felt that 850 by the summer/autumn to be likely.

More than that, after being paid in Euros for the past 3 years, my new contract is USD.

That guarantees further decline ....
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esetters21



Joined: 30 Apr 2006
Location: Seoul
PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2008 3:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
After a couple of months of the dollar not being as strong, I noticed today that it is picking up some strength again. I'm crossing my fingers as well. I wish that I had made an exchange a few months back when it was around the 900krw- 1usd mark. We'll see.
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victorology



Joined: 10 Sep 2007
PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2008 3:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Wangja wrote:
More than that, after being paid in Euros for the past 3 years, my new contract is USD.

That guarantees further decline ....


Well, I'll be visiting home this August and then travel to LA and Vegas for my best friends bachelor party. I plan on converting a lot of won to U.S. dollars so that should even things out.
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agentX



Joined: 12 Oct 2007
Location: Jeolla province
PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2008 4:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Korea's economy has been taking a few hits itself. Lemmie see what the Internet Experts say.

http://www.ratesfx.com/predictions/pred-krw.html

RatesFX is predicting over the next 3 month a change between 3% and 3.75%. Their predicted low (95% probably) around 920 to 906 in the next 3 months.

I don't think it'll dip that low. But it wouldn't surprise me if it 930.
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CeleryMan



Joined: 12 Apr 2007
Location: Seoul
PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2008 6:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Minor fluctations within the +/- 10 points don't really excite me. Last Nov. 07 $1 USD = 909 KRW, I'm praying for a similar valuation by the end of April.

Last week rates fell to 934 and was hoping for a bottoming out at 925 ... today it's near 940. I suppose it's all just speculation in the end??

Thanks again for your all your comments and insight. Looks like I'm holding onto the WON for a bit longer
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victorology



Joined: 10 Sep 2007
PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
CeleryMan wrote:
Minor fluctations within the +/- 10 points don't really excite me. Last Nov. 07 $1 USD = 909 KRW, I'm praying for a similar valuation by the end of April.

Last week rates fell to 934 and was hoping for a bottoming out at 925 ... today it's near 940. I suppose it's all just speculation in the end??

Thanks again for your all your comments and insight. Looks like I'm holding onto the WON for a bit longer


Today's drop in the value of the won is attributed to the bad day on the stock market. A lot of foreign sellers taking money out of the Korean stock market.
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huffdaddy



Joined: 25 Nov 2005
PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2008 5:33 pm    Post subject: Re: $1 = 915 KRW in March (Wishful thinking or Plausible)? Reply with quote
CeleryMan wrote:
Amigos,

I'm getting that itch again to engage in some serious F/X arbitrage and would appreciate ya'lls feedback with respect to the almighty $US Dollar.

How do you think the current exhange rate will hold up in the short term (30 days) versus long term (90 days)? My gut tells there could be some major volatility this month which might not necessarily be a good thing.

I'm praying for a $1 USD = 915 KRW scenario in March... wishful thinking?

Thanks in advance for your comments


FYI, what you are doing is not arbitrage.
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CeleryMan



Joined: 12 Apr 2007
Location: Seoul
PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2008 6:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
"arbitrage" in the engagement sense .. think verb not noun. i'm a product of the public education in the South, please bear with me.
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