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cbclark4
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Location: Masan
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cbclark4
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
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cbclark4
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Location: Masan
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 Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2008 10:38 pm Post subject: |
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OHIO (63% of returns)
Clinton 57%
Obama 41% |
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cbclark4
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Location: Masan
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| Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2008 11:11 pm Post subject: |
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Clinton Projected to win TX (CNN).
76% of returns
52% Clinton
48% Obama
The Caucus returns are not included. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 7:29 am Post subject: |
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| Clinton clinches Texas. That's three out of four for Clinton. It narrows Barack's delegate lead, putting her back into play. |
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stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
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| Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 8:01 am Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| Clinton clinches Texas. That's three out of four for Clinton. It narrows Barack's delegate lead, putting her back into play. |
Clinton's net delegate gain for the night was in the neighborhood of +1 (votes are still being counted, so this may move a little but not much).
That's not even close to enough to put her back in play. The only way Clinton can win at this point is with some kind of nightmare scenario where she is able to tear Obama down sufficiently to convince the super delegates to give her the nomination.
If that happens, I'm registering Libertarian the very next day and never casting another vote for a Democrat.
Yeah, yeah, I know, nobody likes "I'm gonna take my ball and go home" whiners. But this isn't about a candidate, it's about a party. If the D's are so institutionally corrupt that they'd install an insider over the expressed preference of the D electorate -- and mark my words, whatever happens, Obama will have the pledged-delegate lead going into the convention -- then there is simply no point in supporting them. It'd be the final, lasting proof of what the party has indicated with its votes on AUMF, telecom immunity, etc. -- namely that Nader was right after all and that the Democrats are just as beholden to the corporate power structure as the Republicans. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 8:45 am Post subject: |
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| stillnotking wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| Clinton clinches Texas. That's three out of four for Clinton. It narrows Barack's delegate lead, putting her back into play. |
Clinton's net delegate gain for the night was in the neighborhood of +1 (votes are still being counted, so this may move a little but not much).
That's not even close to enough to put her back in play. The only way Clinton can win at this point is with some kind of nightmare scenario where she is able to tear Obama down sufficiently to convince the super delegates to give her the nomination.
If that happens, I'm registering Libertarian the very next day and never casting another vote for a Democrat.
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We'ren't you the one who predicted Barack would have this thing finished up by now?
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| If the D's are so institutionally corrupt that they'd install an insider over the expressed preference of the D electorate -- and mark my words, whatever happens, Obama will have the pledged-delegate lead going into the convention -- then there is simply no point in supporting them. |
The superdelegates are a check on the influence of independents in the race. The superdelegates will decide whether to weather Independent flight, or a Democratic defection. |
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stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
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| Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 8:53 am Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| We'ren't you the one who predicted Barack would have this thing finished up by now? |
Yeah, I was wrong about that one. On the upside, though, I didn't put any money on it. I just sold a crapload of Hillary shares on Intrade and Tradesports. I'll hold 'em all the way to the convention if need be.
| Kuros wrote: |
| Quote: |
| If the D's are so institutionally corrupt that they'd install an insider over the expressed preference of the D electorate -- and mark my words, whatever happens, Obama will have the pledged-delegate lead going into the convention -- then there is simply no point in supporting them. |
The superdelegates are a check on the influence of independents in the race. The superdelegates will decide whether to weather Independent flight, or a Democratic defection. |
The super delegates will decide whether they want to back a party insider over their own constituencies. I already indicated how likely I think that is, but if I'm wrong I'll be a good bit poorer and a Libertarian.  |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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| Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 11:41 am Post subject: |
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[quote="Kuros]We'ren't you the one who predicted Barack would have this thing finished up by now?[/quote]
Wasn't it the Clinton campaign that figured they would have the nomination tied up on Feb 5th? |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 2:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Milwaukiedave wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| We'ren't you the one who predicted Barack would have this thing finished up by now? |
Wasn't it the Clinton campaign that figured they would have the nomination tied up on Feb 5th? |
I have no idea. I know what I predicted: that March 4th would be where Hillary stops the losing streak.
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cbclark4
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Location: Masan
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
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| Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 7:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| Milwaukiedave wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| We'ren't you the one who predicted Barack would have this thing finished up by now? |
Wasn't it the Clinton campaign that figured they would have the nomination tied up on Feb 5th? |
I have no idea. I know what I predicted: that March 4th would be where Hillary stops the losing streak.
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I'll go out on a limb and predict that March 8th is when she starts her next one. |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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| Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 8:27 pm Post subject: |
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| stillnotking wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| Milwaukiedave wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| We'ren't you the one who predicted Barack would have this thing finished up by now? |
Wasn't it the Clinton campaign that figured they would have the nomination tied up on Feb 5th? |
I have no idea. I know what I predicted: that March 4th would be where Hillary stops the losing streak.
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I'll go out on a limb and predict that March 8th is when she starts her next one. |
Hey that isn't true, you know small states, red states and caucus states don't count according to Hillary's campaign.
Seriously, you are right though. Clinton has to show she can actually compete in the small states, red states and caucus states, not just ignore them.
If you look at Texas as being two seperate contests, a primary and a caucus, then she's already lost one. |
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