|
Korean Job Discussion Forums
"The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Teachers from Around the World!"
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
Julius
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
|
 Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 6:16 am Post subject: |
 |
|
| Funkdafied wrote: |
| Quote: |
just as the electorate realise too late that Hilary is the stronger leader.
|
There's no evidence to support that claim |
He is controlled and dignified for sure, however he does not show the occasional hint of aggressiveness when needed, that voters find reassuring when they think of the nations security and authority.
McCain is another slightly limp-wristed proposition.
Obama is a cut above them in his idealism, philosophy and perspective, but at the moment he is coming across as a touch too relaxed. If he shows the ability to strike when cornered it will propel him to the white house in s h o r t order- instead of the drawn out contest it is now degenerating into. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Nowhere Man
Joined: 08 Feb 2004
|
| Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 6:57 am Post subject: ... |
|
|
I don't think he's cornered, and I think what would actually hurt him is if he gets too combative.
What's nice is that it's free advertising in the media.
Mc Cain's in, but in a potentially difficult situation to get media attention until the Dems finish. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
|
| Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 7:30 am Post subject: |
|
|
The latest analysis I saw on CNN is that if Hillary wins Pennsylvania, it will be virtually deadlocked going into the convention. If everything plays out the way it looks now, Obama will have a slight lead, but he also won't have enough delegates to mathematically clinch it.
One analyst's best guess is that Obama will end up winning ugly - as clever and determined Hillary tries every possible tactic to win (at all costs.) |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
|
| Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2008 5:53 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Rteacher wrote: |
The latest analysis I saw on CNN is that if Hillary wins Pennsylvania, it will be virtually deadlocked going into the convention. If everything plays out the way it looks now, Obama will have a slight lead, but he also won't have enough delegates to mathematically clinch it.
One analyst's best guess is that Obama will end up winning ugly - as clever and determined Hillary tries every possible tactic to win (at all costs.) |
RTeacher,
Just a slight correction, if Clinton wins Pennsylvania, the delegate count would be close, but not tied. Assuming Clinton won 60%, yes she'd pick up a fair number of delegates. However, that primary is still six weeks away. Many people forget there is a caucuse in Wyoming and primary in Mississipi within the next week. You also have to take into account which way the superdelegates are swinging at this point.
Edit: For clarificaiton it would come out 95/63 if the above happened. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
|
| Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2008 7:13 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Rteacher wrote: |
The latest analysis I saw on CNN is that if Hillary wins Pennsylvania, it will be virtually deadlocked going into the convention. If everything plays out the way it looks now, Obama will have a slight lead, but he also won't have enough delegates to mathematically clinch it.
One analyst's best guess is that Obama will end up winning ugly - as clever and determined Hillary tries every possible tactic to win (at all costs.) |
That analyst was confused.
Hillary has a deficit of approximately 150 pledged delegates, after they finish counting the Texas caucus. (Obama picked up a net of 8 delegates today, funnily enough, because California corrected their count slightly. That's about the same number of net delegates Hillary picked up on Tuesday, for comparison's sake.)
There are 511 pledged delegates left at stake. Assuming a MI & FL revote, which is a fairly safe assumption, adds 367 more, bringing the total to 878. To take the pledged-delegate lead, Hillary would need to win 515 of those, or a little under 60%. Pennsylvania has 158 pledged delegates at stake; even if Hillary won 75% of them (which is effectively impossible absent an event so staggering it would force Obama to withdraw anyway), she would still need to win 397 of the remaining delegates, or an average victory margin of 55%.
Even conceding the lightning strike in PA, that's just about impossible. There would have to be a major change in the dynamic of the race to improve Clinton's performance so dramatically in the remaining 13 contests, many of which substantially favor Obama. And bear in mind that the way delegates are apportioned is designed to deny any candidate a huge victory margin. Getting 55% of a state's delegates generally requires winning about 65-70% of its popular vote. Clinton needs to blow out PA and then follow up with huge wins everywhere else, just to draw slightly ahead of Obama in pledged delegates.
So what can we conclude from this? Clinton has no realistic hope of ever pulling ahead in pledged delegates. Therefore, her strategy revolves around swaying the super delegates to her side. The problem is that super delegates have never supported the candidate who has fewer pledged delegates; there are obvious electoral reasons for this, since the super delegates are mostly elected officials (Congressmen, governors, etc.) and don't want to look undemocratic. Now, the Hillary campaign will tell you that the entire purpose of the super delegate system is to prevent the electorate from picking a dud -- McGovern in 1972 being the classic example, and the inspiration for the system. However, in the real world, the supers understand that going against the electorate's choice would not only make them look bad, it would very possibly precipitate a civil war in the party, and would at least damage the nominee.
How can Clinton pull off a history-making coup? Well, there are two ways. First, she can win the popular vote, thereby gaining a convincing democratic argument that she deserves the nomination. Trouble is, that's not very likely to happen either, though it is more likely than winning the pledged-delegate battle. Second, she can tear down the other candidate to the point that he is perceived as unelectable in the general, thus presenting the supers with an ultimatum: Nominate me, or nominate the McGovern of 2008.
Obviously the problem with the second approach is that negative campaigning tears her down as well. But if it's that or nothing, why not give it a try? It's sociopathic reasoning, but there's nothing irrational about it. The bonus is that, if she fails to get the nomination but damages Obama badly anyway, he may very well lose against McCain, thereby opening the field for Hillary in 2012. She'd have a ready-made "I told you so" argument and she'd be running against a 76-year-old man.
And that's the state of the race in a nutshell. It probably won't change much in the next seven weeks, so there ya go. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
|
| Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2008 11:00 pm Post subject: |
|
|
NK,
Becareful there, you might be accused of Hillary rants. The thing about math is it doesn't lie. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
|
| Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2008 11:25 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Milwaukiedave wrote: |
NK,
Becareful there, you might be accused of Hillary rants. The thing about math is it doesn't lie. |
No, I'll just get told that "math isn't an argument". Gravity isn't an argument, either, but if you fall off a cliff it doesn't matter how loud you yell.
However you slice it, Hillary has at most a 15-20% chance to win. For that slim thread, she's willing to tarnish Obama with a barrage of nasty personal attacks and deprive him of the chance to spend McCain into the ground for four months.
Now I'm not saying she doesn't have the right to do this. But that doesn't mean she is right to do it. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
|
| Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2008 11:59 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
For that slim thread, she's willing to tarnish Obama with a barrage of nasty personal attacks and deprive him of the chance to spend McCain into the ground for four months.
Now I'm not saying she doesn't have the right to do this. But that doesn't mean she is right to do it. |
Obama can end it all by offering her VeeP now.
Again, I think the entire "Clinton is wrong to run for President" argument would have more legs if she had lost Texas.  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
|
| Posted: Sat Mar 08, 2008 6:11 am Post subject: |
|
|
| stillnotking wrote: |
| Milwaukiedave wrote: |
NK,
Becareful there, you might be accused of Hillary rants. The thing about math is it doesn't lie. |
No, I'll just get told that "math isn't an argument". Gravity isn't an argument, either, but if you fall off a cliff it doesn't matter how loud you yell.
However you slice it, Hillary has at most a 15-20% chance to win. For that slim thread, she's willing to tarnish Obama with a barrage of nasty personal attacks and deprive him of the chance to spend McCain into the ground for four months.
Now I'm not saying she doesn't have the right to do this. But that doesn't mean she is right to do it. |
Well you know I've been joking about Hillary dissing states she lost, but apparently I'm not the only one who thinks that:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/7/11911/84480/785/471097 |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
|
| Posted: Sat Mar 08, 2008 6:12 am Post subject: |
|
|
| stillnotking wrote: |
| Milwaukiedave wrote: |
NK,
Becareful there, you might be accused of Hillary rants. The thing about math is it doesn't lie. |
No, I'll just get told that "math isn't an argument". Gravity isn't an argument, either, but if you fall off a cliff it doesn't matter how loud you yell.
However you slice it, Hillary has at most a 15-20% chance to win. For that slim thread, she's willing to tarnish Obama with a barrage of nasty personal attacks and deprive him of the chance to spend McCain into the ground for four months.
Now I'm not saying she doesn't have the right to do this. But that doesn't mean she is right to do it. |
With popular votes she is about the same with Obama. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
|
| Posted: Sat Mar 08, 2008 7:57 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Kuros wrote: |
| Quote: |
For that slim thread, she's willing to tarnish Obama with a barrage of nasty personal attacks and deprive him of the chance to spend McCain into the ground for four months.
Now I'm not saying she doesn't have the right to do this. But that doesn't mean she is right to do it. |
Obama can end it all by offering her VeeP now.
Again, I think the entire "Clinton is wrong to run for President" argument would have more legs if she had lost Texas. |
If I thought for a second that Hillary would accept the VP slot from Obama... well, wait. He is a light sleeper, right? 
Kidding aside, yep, that'd be a perfectly fine solution.
And Obama did win Texas. This is a race for delegates, not popular votes or bragging rights.
| Quote: |
| New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has claimed victory in the Texas primary � but her rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, may walk away with a greater share of the state's delegates. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
|
| Posted: Sat Mar 08, 2008 7:57 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
| With popular votes she is about the same with Obama. |
Tell that to President Gore. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
|
| Posted: Sat Mar 08, 2008 6:13 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Notking,
I agree with you about Texas although the numbers aren't final yet. Real Clear Politics is still showing it 92/92. I also checked the Texas Democratic Party website and it doesn't look like much has changed. I guess they will not announe the winner until weeks after the caucus takes place.
Did you see the article I posted by a friend of mine on the other thread? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
