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Global warming stopped a decade ago
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blackjack



Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Location: anyang

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 7:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Khenan wrote:
Yaya wrote:
Glaciers?

Global warming could be causing some glaciers to grow, a new study claims.


Ok, tell me again what this has to do with the glaciers in Washington State? In addition, climate change (again - note the terminology) experts have long contended that "global warming" would not result in a uniform rise in global temperatures - which is pretty much why the real scientists started calling it climate change. Much of the media, including Fox and Our Friend Newt, continue to call it "global warming" because it allows them to set up straw man arguments like the one you just gave me.

Yaya wrote:



Take the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unlike its previous report in 2001, which foresaw a possible rise in sea levels over the next century of around 3 feet, the new report cuts that figure in half, to about 17 inches. Why the revision? "Mainly because of improved information," the IPCC notes in the fine print. It goes on to note that even its latest estimate involves some guesswork: "Understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood." The science is getting better, but it's far from settled.


Okay, yes. It's called science. You know - the scientific method. Get this: we still don't have a good understanding of Hawking radiation either. Nor do we know the exact week that the Earth cooled and liquid oceans began to appear. We do, however, have a pretty good guess, and it gets better every time.


Khenan, while i might not have agreed with you about wiki I do agree with you about this (finally I can talk about something that relates some what to my field).

As to why some glaciers may grow? A glacier is made of ice (we can agree about this? (not directed at Khenan)). Most glaciers are formed from snow (still agreeing?). Okay now we are entering a stage where you may disagree but well can't be bothered looking up references (other than wiki Laughing ). Warmer average temperatures mean more evaporation. More evaporation means more rain. Rain in cold areas/high altitude areas equals snow. Glaciers grow in areas where the average temperature is low enough that they don’t retreat too much in the summer.

To repute a couple of other points. A few cold years does not disprove global warming (any more than a few hot years prove it). While this may seem a cop out, it is important to realise, when dealing with a system as complex as global weather and the effect the atmosphere may have upon it there are no easy answers.

It is impossible to prove global warming a. exists and b. is caused by humans. What we can do is show that yes, it is likely that global warming is occurring and yes, it is likely that humans are having an affect upon the worlds weather patterns.

Yata you something about the ring of fire (I am sorry but it is late and can’t find the exact wording, if it was not you I am sorry). Things like the ring of fire, ocean burps, sun spots etc we can’t do anything about, we can do something about CO2. If you have cancer running in your family, do you say why should I wear sunscreen I will probably get cancer anyway?

Well my two cents (please keep this thread away from current theories in esl teaching (fingers crossed)
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blackjack



Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Location: anyang

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 7:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pkang0202 wrote:
brento1138 wrote:
According to the natural cycles that the Earth goes through, at least we know we'll go through a cold spell in the nearish future...

Check out the cycles of cooling here. And how it is linked with CO2 or dust in the atmosphere.

This would be enough to cause big problems for humantiy:



I like the "thousands of years ago" on the X axis. I didn't realize that dinosaurs had sophisticated equipment to measure all of those things.

Stegosaurus says to brontosaurus: "Hey, can you give me an accurate CO2 measure while you are up there eating the leaves off them treetops? Thanks buddy."


god I hope this was a joke (if it wasn't please don't ever teach anything related to science)


Last edited by blackjack on Mon Mar 24, 2008 5:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Yaya



Joined: 25 Feb 2003
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 7:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Khenan wrote:
Yaya wrote:


Justin, I guess you're part of the global warming facists who seek to suppress any dissenting voice to the climate change debate. And there are plenty of gyopos who do believe in global warming, I'm just not one of them. I've cited a few sources who raise valid points about the global warming debate, and you simply say "No, you're wrong, and I shouldn't even have to listen to you, blah blah blah." Way to go, bozo.


Well, this wasn't directed at me, but what the heck?

First of all: facists? Do you even listen to yourself?

Second of all, regarding your sources: Sure, I read them, and they were interesting reads. However, would you please be so kind as to highlight the "valid points" that are raised? What I read was a whining professor crying about not getting respect and having his articles turned down by journals who actually care about printing real research.

Furthermore, your "sources" consistently note that the scientific and academic communities don't think they have anything worth listening to. I won't necessarily take their word for it, but that is certainly not a good way to start out if you want me to end up agreeing with you. My point here is that your "sources" full of "valid points" are not aimed at the scientific community. They are, in fact, aimed at a community of anti-intelligencia. I am not of this particular community, and this could be the reason that I think he is full of it.

I'm going to keep going: Any "scientist" who goes crying to mommy and daddy anti-intelligencia every time he gets a paper refused is not a very good scientist, if you ask me. Rather, a good scientist would say, Okay, let me do some more research, perhaps revise my draft, and work on my argument until I have one that other people might want to read.

Third of all (and this might be the most important): The reason that many of us "facists" don't bother listening to you "closet cases" is because we have spent so much time messing up the world that we'd like to go ahead and take some action now, please, if you don't mind. As far as we're concerned, the argument is over. Every important world government agrees that climate change (note the terminology - get with the decade) is real and is caused by human activity. The argument is over, and we've won.

If you don't like that, please be so kind as to do some original research, and construct an argument stronger than the one we have, which you can read about here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report


Yes, I've been following the climate change debate quite closely, though I am no scientist. But one big problem with this whole "debate" is the arrogance of the pro-global warming people who say there is no argument, and have even gone to the extreme to trying to silence (and even threaten) those with a dissenting opinion.

You say you've won though there is plenty of evidence to suggest otherwise (remember when Al Gore gave a speech in New York on global warming and the temperature reached a 50-year low in the city?). Like you said, there is the scientific method and the fact that humans still do not have a good understanding of many things (like Y2K and the 1975 Newsweek prediction of an impending ice age). Planning sweeping changes based on shaky science is not something a government should do.

I don't know about disappearing glaciers in the state of Washington, so I cannot comment on that, but well, I never said the climate ain't changing, just that the global warming movement is full of holes and could be linked to other things, especially money considering scientists who believe in global warming get far more funding than the skeptics.
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Khenan



Joined: 25 Dec 2007

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 9:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yaya wrote:

Yes, I've been following the climate change debate quite closely, though I am no scientist. But one big problem with this whole "debate" is the arrogance of the pro-global warming people who say there is no argument, and have even gone to the extreme to trying to silence (and even threaten) those with a dissenting opinion.


Yes, I see that this is your point. I'm sorry if I didn't make that clear. Please understand, I am happy that people are going around, double-checking facts, and second-guessing the system. This is the backbone of modern science. (If only it worked so well in politics.) However, the debate is over. I'm not saying that there is no debate. I'm saying that we had one, it lasted 25 years, and now it's over. Some people might try to "silence" other scientists... I can't comment on that. Your source didn't get into great detail about that. My hypothesis: Given that most everyone (talking 99+% of real scientists and experts) agrees that climate change is real and our fault, I expect that most reputable scientific journals would not publish his papers because they were probably wrong, poorly sourced, or at the very least not sourced-enough to fly in the face of accepted science. Similarly, his collegues probably don't want him going on and on about climate change being a lie, since it makes their institutions look bad. Now, if he actually had some real evidence...

yaya wrote:


Like you said, there is the scientific method and the fact that humans still do not have a good understanding of many things


Yes, there is. The scientific method does not require us to ignore overwhelming evidence simply because we are not sure. There's a point at which you say, "Hmmm... this is pretty convincing. Let's go with it."

yaya wrote:


Planning sweeping changes based on shaky science is not something a government should do.



True enough, but climate change research is hardly shaky. I mean really. You bring up two or three quasi-claims against climate change and decide that you've debunked the whole system? Your points, I might add, are easily explained (and have been) using current understandings of climate change. Do you have any idea how many thousands and millions of data points there are that support the conclusions of the UN? How many incredibly complex systems that we are only just now understanding that are at work in our world and all create predictable and confirmable claims about real world situations?

You will probably attack me on the point where I said that "we are only just now understanding." Well, let me say this: without climate change research, we would still know next to nothing about our our planet works as a global system. We owe the research that much, at the very least.

To get back to your point: Should governments be spending tons of money on this sort of thing? Well, let's look at the options. First, we can ignore the overwhelming evidence that shit is going to hit the fan, and we can cross our fingers and start pumping out CO2 on Mars to get it ready for us. Second, we take real steps to save our planet. If it turns out that we're wrong, hey: at least we got a bunch of cool technology. Wouldn't you like to be driving a hydrogen car? Wouldn't it be nice if all the smog in Seoul was not actually there? Or in L.A., or in any other city? Hell, even Seattle has smog, if it doesn't rain for a few weeks. Personally, I miss being able to see the mountains any day I wanted. I used to be able to, 15 years ago. It's only going to get worse.
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Khenan



Joined: 25 Dec 2007

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

blackjack wrote:

Khenan, while i might not have agreed with you about wiki I do agree with you about this (finally I can talk about something that relates some what to my field).


No hard feelings on wiki... maybe I'll convince you one day Smile On a side note, you did your degree on Glaciation in High Altitude Zones? Smile
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uberscheisse



Joined: 02 Dec 2003
Location: japan is better than korea.

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 9:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

oh, finally a newspaper article! we have the smoking gun! global warming doesn't exist, so we can finally go back to doing exactly what we've been doing for the past 50 years and pretend it still works!

thank you, australian newspaper! one day people will think of you as a rosetta stone!
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Justin Hale



Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Location: the Straight Talk Express

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 2:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yaya wrote:
Justin Hale wrote:
Any correlation between global warming scepticism discourse and being a gyopo? Komerican, Yaya and now you have all expressed global warming scepticism. In any case, global warming affects the Arctic and subarctic the most. Your comment about North America should not even be made by a high school student versed in high school geography - that's the level of discourse attempting to oppose scientific consensus. Secondly, the dinosaurs were around from 230 million to 60 million years ago, not thousands of years ago as on that graph. Your knowledge of science and geography is clearly very, very low and Korean hagwons are chock full of characters Western societies should be ashamed graduated from their education systems.


There's a much more important issue that poses an even greater danger to mankind. That's the effort by environmentalists to suppress disagreement with their view.

http://jewishworldreview.com/cols/williams032807.php3


Here's some folks who are in on the conspiracy:

1.1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007
1.2 Joint science academies� statement 2007
1.3 Joint science academies� statement 2005
1.4 Joint science academies� statement 2001
1.5 Network of African Science Academies
1.6 U.S. National Research Council, 2001
1.7 American Meteorological Society
1.8 Royal Meteorological Society (UK)
1.9 Meteorological Office of the U.K.
1.10 Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (Switzerland)
1.11 World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
1.12 American Geophysical Union
1.13 American Institute of Physics
1.14 American Astronomical Society
1.15 American Physical Society
1.16 Federal Climate Change Science Program, 2006
1.17 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
1.18 National Center for Atmospheric Research
1.19 American Association for the Advancement of Science
1.20 Stratigraphy Commission of the Geological Society of London
1.21 Geological Society of America
1.22 American Chemical Society
1.23 Engineers Australia (The Institution of Engineers Australia)
1.24 Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
1.25 The Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
1.26 Meteorological Service Of Canada
1.27 European Geosciences Union
1.28 International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
1.29 International Council for Science

No remaining scientific body of national or international standing is known to reject the basic findings of human influence on recent climate.

Yaya wrote:
Justin, I guess you're part of the global warming facists who seek to suppress any dissenting voice to the climate change debate. And there are plenty of gyopos who do believe in global warming, I'm just not one of them. I've cited a few sources who raise valid points about the global warming debate, and you simply say "No, you're wrong, and I shouldn't even have to listen to you, blah blah blah." Way to go, bozo.


Opposition to the consensus, tiny as it is compared to the consensus, is motivated by Far Right conservatism, Republicanism, probably creationism and probably American nationalism, since the US has 4.5% of the world's population but produces 25% of the emissions. I'm not gonna listen to folks like that.
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xingyiman



Joined: 12 Jan 2006

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 5:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yaya wrote:
Justin Hale wrote:
Any correlation between global warming scepticism discourse and being a gyopo? Komerican, Yaya and now you have all expressed global warming scepticism. In any case, global warming affects the Arctic and subarctic the most. Your comment about North America should not even be made by a high school student versed in high school geography - that's the level of discourse attempting to oppose scientific consensus. Secondly, the dinosaurs were around from 230 million to 60 million years ago, not thousands of years ago as on that graph. Your knowledge of science and geography is clearly very, very low and Korean hagwons are chock full of characters Western societies should be ashamed graduated from their education systems.


There's a much more important issue that poses an even greater danger to mankind. That's the effort by environmentalists to suppress disagreement with their view.

http://jewishworldreview.com/cols/williams032807.php3

Justin, I guess you're part of the global warming facists who seek to suppress any dissenting voice to the climate change debate. And there are plenty of gyopos who do believe in global warming, I'm just not one of them. I've cited a few sources who raise valid points about the global warming debate, and you simply say "No, you're wrong, and I shouldn't even have to listen to you, blah blah blah." Way to go, bozo.


As I said earlier which Justin himself never addressed, his advocacy of global warming is based on his political party allegience NOT on scientific data. I'm a geologist, and I have a graduate degree so if there are any climatologists here please come forward and make yourselves known.

Firstly, global warming IS occuring as it has many, many times throughout our geologic history. The question now is not is it occuring, but whether man's actions have significantly contributed to it and much more importantly - can it be stymied and/or reversed by any actions taken by us? Those second two questions are where there is no concensus Justin. Where the money is at stake is where science ends and politics begins.

Justin complians about people not being able to argue empiricaly then in the next breath labels people who take issue with him as "creationist, right wing nut jobs". As a scientist well versed in professional debate I fail to see where being a creationist/evolutionist has any bearing on the current debate and I have yet to see it raised among the real authorities in the field. No one who has contributed to this thread has injected any such rhetoric and to suggest as such makes you guilty of presenting a falacy. I also have a B.A. in rhetoric and persuassion and contrary to your views, falacies are never justified in serious discourse.
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blackjack



Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Location: anyang

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Khenan wrote:
blackjack wrote:

Khenan, while i might not have agreed with you about wiki I do agree with you about this (finally I can talk about something that relates some what to my field).


No hard feelings on wiki... maybe I'll convince you one day Smile On a side note, you did your degree on Glaciation in High Altitude Zones? Smile


Not quite, it's in environmental science, looking at land use and water quality. My supervisor is on the NZ government focus group for climate change so while it is not main area of interest I have made sure I can at least chat about it with him.
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xingyiman



Joined: 12 Jan 2006

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin Hale wrote:


Opposition to the consensus, tiny as it is compared to the consensus, is motivated by Far Right conservatism, Republicanism, probably creationism and probably American nationalism, since the US has 4.5% of the world's population but produces 25% of the emissions. I'm not gonna listen to folks like that.


Justin please answer me, what in the world does being creationist or evolutionist have to do with this debate? The concensus does exist you are correct but as I said in my last post there is NO concensus as to whether man's contributions to the phenomena have accelerated it and furthermore there is no agreement whatsoever as to whether reducing emissions could repair the damage done if the damage done by man is even significant. The current contention is about TAX DOLLARS. And the fact that the democrats have adopted it as a pinnacle of their party's election strategy is only complicating the matter. WE DON"T KNOW WHAT THE TRUTH IS. Because political parties democrat or republican don't care about truth, they care about tax dollars from YOU and I and from corporations.
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Justin Hale



Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Location: the Straight Talk Express

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 6:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

xingyiman wrote:
Yaya wrote:
Justin Hale wrote:
Any correlation between global warming scepticism discourse and being a gyopo? Komerican, Yaya and now you have all expressed global warming scepticism. In any case, global warming affects the Arctic and subarctic the most. Your comment about North America should not even be made by a high school student versed in high school geography - that's the level of discourse attempting to oppose scientific consensus. Secondly, the dinosaurs were around from 230 million to 60 million years ago, not thousands of years ago as on that graph. Your knowledge of science and geography is clearly very, very low and Korean hagwons are chock full of characters Western societies should be ashamed graduated from their education systems.


There's a much more important issue that poses an even greater danger to mankind. That's the effort by environmentalists to suppress disagreement with their view.

http://jewishworldreview.com/cols/williams032807.php3

Justin, I guess you're part of the global warming facists who seek to suppress any dissenting voice to the climate change debate. And there are plenty of gyopos who do believe in global warming, I'm just not one of them. I've cited a few sources who raise valid points about the global warming debate, and you simply say "No, you're wrong, and I shouldn't even have to listen to you, blah blah blah." Way to go, bozo.


As I said earlier which Justin himself never addressed, his advocacy of global warming is based on his political party allegience NOT on scientific data.


I have addressed it. Here it is again:

Justin Hale wrote:
I'm a Tory in the UK and, yes, usually a Democrat in the US (but not this time - I support McCain, since his position on the environment and energy policy is fundamentally and totally correct - the Dems' position is slightly incorrect). The environment and energy policy is central and fundamental to our problems in the world today. Who ever gets that right gets the presidency. I like Obama and won't cry if he wins, but I want a single term McCain presidency and who ever is next to follow on with McCainism and perhaps improve the position, since McCain gets one or two things wrong as well. A critical figure however.

X-man wrote:
Justin Hale's reponse is the typical liberal demorat one and a classic reason why there is so much contention over the issue now.


The "debate" lies outside science. Read Newt Gingrich and his scathing condemnation about climate and the environment becoming a "liberal" issue. Newt is right. He usually is.

Inside science, the jury is in. And, as I said, I will simply ignore any lay discourse, any binaries taking place in intellectual and scientific vacuums, any ideological discourse motivated by Far Right creationist conservativism, that seeks to oppose scientific consensus. Wanna know what the consensus is, read realclimate, read the IPCC. The debate is over. It ended some time ago. And it is not about to begin on a message board full of creationsist, conspiracy theorist hagwon muppets earning their pittance in the McWorld of Korean TEFL. Game over.


As I said, I'm generally of Democrat persuasion because I am a Right Wing liberal. I could never normally support the GOP because so many of those jerkwads are religious and don't believe in evolution....but this time, I support McCain largely because of his superior position on the environment and energy policy. In other words, you're totally wrong. You say I support science because of party politics. In fact, I support party politics because of science. Repeating myself here. Your point is sad and confused blather. I support the IPCC and Realclimate position because it's supported by a scientific consensus and oodles of evidence.

xingyiman wrote:
I'm a geologist, and I have a graduate degree so if there are any climatologists here please come forward and make yourselves known.


I'm a qualified and certified English teacher.

Xingyiman wrote:
Firstly, global warming IS occuring as it has many, many times throughout our geologic history. The question now is not is it occuring, but whether man's actions have significantly contributed to it and much more importantly - can it be stymied and/or reversed by any actions taken by us? Those second two questions are where there is no concensus Justin. Where the money is at stake is where science ends and politics begins.


I'm not interested in anything you have to say. If I want information on natural and scientific phenomena, scientific consensus is whom I'll consult - not hagwon teachers. I've debunked your view that there is no consensus in my previous post. You like repeating bogus claims, I see.

Xingyiman wrote:
Justin complians about people not being able to argue empiricaly then in the next breath labels people who take issue with him as "creationist, right wing nut jobs". As a scientist well versed in professional debate I fail to see where being a creationist/evolutionist has any bearing on the current debate and I have yet to see it raised among the real authorities in the field. No one who has contributed to this thread has injected any such rhetoric and to suggest as such makes you guilty of presenting a falacy. I also have a B.A. in rhetoric and persuassion and contrary to your views, falacies are never justified in serious discourse.


It's highly likely that the tiny and fringe minority who oppose the consensus are motivated by anti-science, religion and political ideology. Sure, it's ad hominem and fallacious if I were to say that because of these motivations their claims are false, but that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying their claims are dubious because (a) they take place in an intellectual/scientific vacuum that requires me to suspend adherence to the oodles of co2/greenhouse gas evidence, (b) they oppose the consensus likely because they're ultraconservatives.
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Justin Hale



Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Location: the Straight Talk Express

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 6:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

xingyiman wrote:
Justin Hale wrote:


Opposition to the consensus, tiny as it is compared to the consensus, is motivated by Far Right conservatism, Republicanism, probably creationism and probably American nationalism, since the US has 4.5% of the world's population but produces 25% of the emissions. I'm not gonna listen to folks like that.


Justin please answer me, what in the world does being creationist or evolutionist have to do with this debate?


I'm guessing it's largely the same bunch of fringe folks.

xingyiman wrote:
The concensus does exist you are correct but as I said in my last post there is NO concensus as to whether man's contributions to the phenomena have accelerated it and furthermore there is no agreement whatsoever as to whether reducing emissions could repair the damage done if the damage done by man is even significant.


Scientific Consensus on Climate Change

Xingyiman wrote:
The current contention is about TAX DOLLARS. And the fact that the democrats have adopted it as a pinnacle of their party's election strategy is only complicating the matter. WE DON"T KNOW WHAT THE TRUTH IS. Because political parties democrat or republican don't care about truth, they care about tax dollars from YOU and I and from corporations.


Firstly, please drop the Dem stuff because I've posted 2 replies expressing support for McCain (and largely because of his superior position on the environment/energy).

Secondly, your comments above commit the argument from ignorance fallacy
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Yaya



Joined: 25 Feb 2003
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Challenge to Scientific Consensus on Global Warming
Analysis Finds Hundreds of Scientists Have Published Evidence Countering Man-Made Global Warming Fears

A new analysis of peer-reviewed literature reveals that more than 500 scientists have published evidence refuting at least one element of current man-made global warming scares. More than 300 of the scientists found evidence that 1) a natural moderate 1,500-year climate cycle has produced more than a dozen global warmings similar to ours since the last Ice Age and/or that 2) our Modern Warming is linked strongly to variations in the sun's irradiance. "This data and the list of scientists make a mockery of recent claims that a scientific consensus blames humans as the primary cause of global temperature increases since 1850," said Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Dennis Avery.

Other researchers found evidence that 3) sea levels are failing to rise importantly; 4) that our storms and droughts are becoming fewer and milder with this warming as they did during previous global warmings; 5) that human deaths will be reduced with warming because cold kills twice as many people as heat; and 6) that corals, trees, birds, mammals, and butterflies are adapting well to the routine reality of changing climate.

Despite being published in such journals such as Science, Nature and Geophysical Review Letters, these scientists have gotten little media attention. "Not all of these researchers would describe themselves as global warming skeptics," said Avery, "but the evidence in their studies is there for all to see."

The names were compiled by Avery and climate physicist S. Fred Singer, the co-authors of the new book Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years, mainly from the peer-reviewed studies cited in their book. The researchers' specialties include tree rings, sea levels, stalagmites, lichens, pollen, plankton, insects, public health, Chinese history and astrophysics.

"We have had a Greenhouse Theory with no evidence to support it-except a moderate warming turned into a scare by computer models whose results have never been verified with real-world events," said co-author Singer. "On the other hand, we have compelling evidence of a real-world climate cycle averaging 1470 years (plus or minus 500) running through the last million years of history. The climate cycle has above all been moderate, and the trees, bears, birds, and humans have quietly adapted."

"Two thousand years of published human histories say that the warm periods were good for people," says Avery. "It was the harsh, unstable Dark Ages and Little Ice Age that brought bigger storms, untimely frost, widespread famine and plagues of disease." "There may have been a consensus of guesses among climate model-builders," says Singer. "However, the models only reflect the warming, not its cause." He noted that about 70 percent of the earth's post-1850 warming came before 1940, and thus was probably not caused by human-emitted greenhouse gases. The net post-1940 warming totals only a tiny 0.2 degrees C.

The historic evidence of the natural cycle includes the 5000-year record of Nile floods, 1st-century Roman wine production in Britain, and thousands of museum paintings that portrayed sunnier skies during the Medieval Warming and more cloudiness during the Little Ice Age. The physical evidence comes from oxygen isotopes, beryllium ions, tiny sea and pollen fossils, and ancient tree rings. The evidence recovered from ice cores, sea and lake sediments, cave stalagmites and glaciers has been analyzed by electron microscopes, satellites, and computers. Temperatures during the Medieval Warming Period on California's Whitewing Mountain must have been 3.2 degrees warmer than today, says Constance Millar of the U.S. Forest Service, based on her study of seven species of relict trees that grew above today's tree line.

Singer emphasized, "Humans have known since the invention of the telescope that the earth's climate variations were linked to the sunspot cycle, but we had not understood how. Recent experiments have demonstrated that more or fewer cosmic rays hitting the earth create more or fewer of the low, cooling clouds that deflect solar heat back into space-amplifying small variations in the intensity of the sun.

Avery and Singer noted that there are hundreds of additional peer-reviewed studies that have found cycle evidence, and that they will publish additional researchers' names and studies. They also noted that their book was funded by Wallace O. Sellers, a Hudson board member, without any corporate contributions.

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/news_press_release,176495.shtml
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bovinerebel



Joined: 27 Feb 2008

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 6:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
As Lindzen said many years ago: "the consensus was reached before the research had even begun." Now, any scientist who dares to question the prevailing wisdom is marginalized and called a sceptic, when in fact they are simply being good scientists.



Great quote. I've often brought this up when dealing with people who want to call me a "loony" for being sceptical about various things. It's simply good practice to expect people to be able to test and prove their lofty claims. There are so many examples today where the scientific method has been brushed over in place of some political agenda.

Global warming . Hiv as the cause of Aids . The research into the events of september 11th etc . All these beliefs are perpetuated through the same method...the assumption that people (including many scientists) are passive and unwilling to question the status quo. There need not lie any conspiracies at the heart of any of these issues , but it never hurts to be skeptical when the scientific method is not being practiced by scientists who ought to know better. It reeks of agenda.

Any time a scientists is beating the straw man by calling holders of an opposing theory "crackpots" without having proven his own theory(by means other than weak correlation) one has to question his credibility to follow the scientific method. A theory can not be validified only via its popularity through mention in the mainstream media. It needs to stand up to sceptical scrutiny and testing.
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xingyiman



Joined: 12 Jan 2006

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 6:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin just because you support McCain does not hold sway over the fact that you are still of the democratic persuassion. If Hillary gets the nonimation there will probably be lots of democrats who will cross over but voting on the opposing party's ticket does not change who you fundamentally are. There's nothing wrong with that but your statement that "I dont want to talk to you" says it all. Generally democrats don't like talking to anyone who holds different views from them. Aside from everything else. You claim there is a concensus and I agree but seeing how I have been closer to the belly of the beast - NOT popular science I will contend that the concensus is still limited as I outlined earlier. That's the advantage of having a degree in Geology as opposed to English but actually counting my undergrads I've got both. I digress.
Yaya and others have presented data that seems to contradict many of your views and I will point out that there is a large group of scientists who contend that global warming is not reason for alarm. Who's right? Who knows because politics is concened more with vote buying and fleecing us of our tax dollars
In the end as a rheoritician, I fail to see why you hold so much emotion on this sujbect as I often fail to see why so many people exhibit so much emotion concerning whether gays are genetically predisposed to being the way they are. Let me spell it out for you Justin. Emotion means personal investment. Why do you have such personal investement in the issue? As far as I can tell if global warming is indeed as bad as Al Gore suggests then our time is limited. Why worry? The worst of the changes will occur probably after you and I are all gone. Since we evolved insead of being created by a higher being then life and all it's vestiges will end for us. We will cease to exist. Future generations will have to deal with it and getting angry about it only steals from the quality of life here and now which according to your predisposition is all we have.

So eat drink and be merry because without accountability to a higher power it is us that make the rules that govern our world and who's to say that our mis-stewardship was wrong? It was good for us up to this point at the expense of the rest of the world. Is nature a God? If not then it simply holds a different perspective on our activities than we do.

Why be angry and try to trash the integrity of those who disagree with you? In the end all we are talking about are numers anyway.
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