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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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 Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 9:12 am Post subject: The long defeat (warning: Democratic primary thread) |
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Hoping to see a few more articles like this in the near future.
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Hillary Clinton may not realize it yet, but she�s just endured one of the worst weeks of her campaign.
First, Barack Obama weathered the Rev. Jeremiah Wright affair without serious damage to his nomination prospects. Obama still holds a tiny lead among Democrats nationally in the Gallup tracking poll, just as he did before this whole affair blew up.
Second, Obama�s lawyers successfully prevented re-votes in Florida and Michigan. That means it would be virtually impossible for Clinton to take a lead in either elected delegates or total primary votes.
Third, as Noam Scheiber of The New Republic has reported, most superdelegates have accepted Nancy Pelosi�s judgment that the winner of the elected delegates should get the nomination. Instead of lining up behind Clinton, they�re drifting away. Her lead among them has shrunk by about 60 in the past month, according to Avi Zenilman of Politico.com.
In short, Hillary Clinton�s presidential prospects continue to dim. The door is closing. Night is coming. The end, however, is not near.
Last week, an important Clinton adviser told Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen (also of Politico) that Clinton had no more than a 10 percent chance of getting the nomination. Now, she�s probably down to a 5 percent chance.
Five percent.
Let�s take a look at what she�s going to put her party through for the sake of that 5 percent chance: The Democratic Party is probably going to have to endure another three months of daily sniping. For another three months, we�ll have the Carvilles likening the Obamaites to Judas and former generals accusing Clintonites of McCarthyism. For three months, we�ll have the daily round of r�sum� padding and sulfurous conference calls. We�ll have campaign aides blurting �blue dress� and only-because-he�s-black references as they let slip their private contempt.
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For three more months, Clinton is likely to hurt Obama even more against McCain, without hurting him against herself. And all this is happening so she can preserve that 5 percent chance.
When you step back and think about it, she is amazing. She possesses the audacity of hopelessness. |
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stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 9:41 am Post subject: |
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Harry Reid said something to the effect of "things are being done". My guess would be that this means pressure is being applied to the super delegates behind the scenes. A mass movement of super delegates to Obama could end the race. Here's hoping.
Of course, this is Harry Reid we're talking about, so huge grain of salt. |
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desultude
Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Location: Dangling my toes in the Persian Gulf
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 9:43 am Post subject: Re: The long defeat (warning: Democratic primary thread) |
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| mithridates wrote: |
Hoping to see a few more articles like this in the near future.
link
| Quote: |
Hillary Clinton may not realize it yet, but she�s just endured one of the worst weeks of her campaign.
First, Barack Obama weathered the Rev. Jeremiah Wright affair without serious damage to his nomination prospects. Obama still holds a tiny lead among Democrats nationally in the Gallup tracking poll, just as he did before this whole affair blew up.
Second, Obama�s lawyers successfully prevented re-votes in Florida and Michigan. That means it would be virtually impossible for Clinton to take a lead in either elected delegates or total primary votes.
Third, as Noam Scheiber of The New Republic has reported, most superdelegates have accepted Nancy Pelosi�s judgment that the winner of the elected delegates should get the nomination. Instead of lining up behind Clinton, they�re drifting away. Her lead among them has shrunk by about 60 in the past month, according to Avi Zenilman of Politico.com.
In short, Hillary Clinton�s presidential prospects continue to dim. The door is closing. Night is coming. The end, however, is not near.
Last week, an important Clinton adviser told Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen (also of Politico) that Clinton had no more than a 10 percent chance of getting the nomination. Now, she�s probably down to a 5 percent chance.
Five percent.
Let�s take a look at what she�s going to put her party through for the sake of that 5 percent chance: The Democratic Party is probably going to have to endure another three months of daily sniping. For another three months, we�ll have the Carvilles likening the Obamaites to Judas and former generals accusing Clintonites of McCarthyism. For three months, we�ll have the daily round of r�sum� padding and sulfurous conference calls. We�ll have campaign aides blurting �blue dress� and only-because-he�s-black references as they let slip their private contempt.
........
For three more months, Clinton is likely to hurt Obama even more against McCain, without hurting him against herself. And all this is happening so she can preserve that 5 percent chance.
When you step back and think about it, she is amazing. She possesses the audacity of hopelessness. |
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I'm stealing the parting shot for my sig line.
I am so surprised when people think I could support her. Machine politics all of the way, and ruthlessly ambitious- she is skanky! |
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twg
Joined: 02 Nov 2006
Location: Getting some fresh air...
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 9:58 am Post subject: |
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The Clintons are really part of the "attack politics" era the US has been suffering through since Reagan slimed his way into office. I think the reason Obama has gained so much support is because... even though it took a generation... that sort of style is no longer able to fool the voter.
Maybe you think Obama is fooling people in a different way, who knows? But really, Hillary could just as easily be a moderate Republican and no one would be able to tell the difference.
A Republicrat? Demlican? |
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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 10:24 am Post subject: |
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This is great! Operation Chaos is exceeding all expectations and we could not have done it without Hill-Bill. Thank you Hillary C.  |
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stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 10:28 am Post subject: |
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| Pluto wrote: |
| This is great Operation Chaos is exceeding all expectations and we could not have done it without Hill-Bill. Thank you Hillary C. |
It's not going to make a lick of difference. All the fundamentals point to a comfortable Democratic victory this year. Check out the party-identification polling numbers or Doug Hibbs' stunningly accurate Bread and Peace model. The Democratic candidate will get approximately 52% of the popular vote, by conservative estimate.
That's why Hillary is fighting so hard. She knows that whoever ends up as the Dem nominee will have a 70-75% chance of winning the general election, divisive primary or no. |
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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 11:15 am Post subject: |
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| stillnotking wrote: |
| Pluto wrote: |
| This is great Operation Chaos is exceeding all expectations and we could not have done it without Hill-Bill. Thank you Hillary C. |
It's not going to make a lick of difference. All the fundamentals point to a comfortable Democratic victory this year. Check out the party-identification polling numbers or Doug Hibbs' stunningly accurate Bread and Peace model. The Democratic candidate will get approximately 52% of the popular vote, by conservative estimate.
That's why Hillary is fighting so hard. She knows that whoever ends up as the Dem nominee will have a 70-75% chance of winning the general election, divisive primary or no. |
Yeah, and 98% of polling numbers are made up. At any rate, Rasmussen Reports would disagree with you numbers. But I must digress.
Yes, lefties see a planet alignment favoring a democrat president and Congress. Their dreams of greater state dependency finally seems to be a realization. The first women or black man as president. Why the 'white guilt' throughout the country must be so great that the electorate would never vote for another 'old white man.' This, of course, would be true if the democrats could get their house in order, and leave it to the lefties to screw up an almost certain thing. The continuing infighting and chaos in the democrat party is shooting McCain's stock straight up. I really hope this chaos continues straight past the convention with many dissatisfied dem voters. What is the old saying about a divided house...? |
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stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 11:22 am Post subject: |
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| Pluto wrote: |
| stillnotking wrote: |
| Pluto wrote: |
| This is great Operation Chaos is exceeding all expectations and we could not have done it without Hill-Bill. Thank you Hillary C. |
It's not going to make a lick of difference. All the fundamentals point to a comfortable Democratic victory this year. Check out the party-identification polling numbers or Doug Hibbs' stunningly accurate Bread and Peace model. The Democratic candidate will get approximately 52% of the popular vote, by conservative estimate.
That's why Hillary is fighting so hard. She knows that whoever ends up as the Dem nominee will have a 70-75% chance of winning the general election, divisive primary or no. |
Yeah, and 98% of polling numbers are made up. At any rate, Rasmussen Reports would disagree with you numbers. But I must digress.
Yes, lefties see a planet alignment favoring a democrat president and Congress. Their dreams of greater state dependency finally seems to be a realization. The first women or black man as president. Why the 'white guilt' throughout the country must be so great that the electorate would never vote for another 'old white man.' This, of course, would be true if the democrats could get their house in order, and leave it to the lefties to screw up an almost certain thing. The continuing infighting and chaos in the democrat party is shooting McCain's stock straight up. I really hope this chaos continues straight past the convention with many dissatisfied dem voters. What is the old saying about a divided house...? |
Stop it, please, you're inflaming my white guilt to dangerous levels. Is there a state agency nearby that can dispense a pill for it?
Seriously, man, do you really believe the crap you write? That is a laundry list of the most ludicrous strawmen I've ever seen, creationist tracts excepted of course. |
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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 11:48 am Post subject: |
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| stillnotking wrote: |
Stop it, please, you're inflaming my white guilt to dangerous levels. Is there a state agency nearby that can dispense a pill for it?
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Well, I hope it doesn't have to come to that. But as I look at the proposed budget of Obama and the tax increase that will come with it, the more infighting within the democrat party, the better. I really just don't want to see the democrats get a stranglehold on the entire government, both houses of Congress and the executive. It would just kill the economy. Expanded government power and the taxes to pay for that power gets in the way of people's opportunity to grow value in their lives. I just don't understand why the left can't see that. |
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stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 12:43 pm Post subject: |
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| Capitalism is a government project. I don't understand why the right can't see that. |
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Czarjorge
Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 1:17 pm Post subject: |
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| I like your 'hope'fulness SNK, but Clinton's campaign is doing damage to Obama. At the county caucus last weekend there was a fair bit of "He can't be elected" talk from Hillary's supporters. This was southeastern Iowa, so unfortunately racism does play a part in that judgement, but the more reasonable people supporting Hillary openly stated that they believed she was trashing Obama to win, and that they supported it. |
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stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 1:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Czarjorge wrote: |
| I like your 'hope'fulness SNK, but Clinton's campaign is doing damage to Obama. At the county caucus last weekend there was a fair bit of "He can't be elected" talk from Hillary's supporters. This was southeastern Iowa, so unfortunately racism does play a part in that judgement, but the more reasonable people supporting Hillary openly stated that they believed she was trashing Obama to win, and that they supported it. |
You know what you ask a job applicant, if you want to know whether he's honest or not? You ask him whether he thinks other people are honest. What we think about the human race in general almost always tracks what we really think about ourselves, even if the judgment is too adverse to be consciously acknowledged.
IOW, people who say that America is too racist a country to vote for a black man may be saying more about themselves than about America. Of course this is not 100% -- armchair psychology is far from completely reliable -- but I find it a useful guide. |
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Czarjorge
Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 1:36 pm Post subject: |
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I don't necessarily agree with that assessment, but I see where you're coming from with that statement. I've done alot of hiring, and the question I ask is...
'What is your greatest weakness?'
If they say they're a workaholic or something along those lines they're full of crap, and though not necessarily untrustworthy, certainly worth watching closely.
I always say I'm a nervous talker. It's true, and hopefully connects me to Lloyd Dobbler. Everyone decent loves Lloyd Dobbler. |
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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 2:15 pm Post subject: |
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| stillnotking wrote: |
| Capitalism is a government project. I don't understand why the right can't see that. |
Capitalism is project of the free market. The right to capital, the right to ownership, the right grow one's wealth is the right of free people in a free market. You may be thinking of the insidious phenomenon of corporatism; whereby the interests of government and corporations merge. The best way to divorce the two is to end the over-taxation, end the over regulation, end the subsidies, end the unfair welfare programs, end it all! Less and smaller government, less taxes, freer people and freer markets is how to enhance the prosperity for every citizen of our country. |
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stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 3:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Pluto wrote: |
| stillnotking wrote: |
| Capitalism is a government project. I don't understand why the right can't see that. |
Capitalism is project of the free market. The right to capital, the right to ownership, the right grow one's wealth is the right of free people in a free market. |
Excellent, you have the definition of capitalism down pat. Now if you can understand its genesis and maintenance, you'll be home free.
| Quote: |
| You may be thinking of the insidious phenomenon of corporatism; whereby the interests of government and corporations merge. The best way to divorce the two is to end the over-taxation, end the over regulation, end the subsidies, end the unfair welfare programs, end it all! Less and smaller government, less taxes, freer people and freer markets is how to enhance the prosperity for every citizen of our country. |
I was not thinking of the insidious phenomenon of corporatism. I was thinking of property rights and the rule of law, otherwise known as the basic governmental requirements for capitalism. |
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