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Possibly the best Iraq analysis I've read

 
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R. S. Refugee



Joined: 29 Sep 2004
Location: Shangra La, ROK

PostPosted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 2:49 am    Post subject: Possibly the best Iraq analysis I've read Reply with quote

As many of you know, I don't post much on this forum anymore and argue a point even less.

However, I do want to commend an analysis of the Iraq situation as one of best I've ever read.

It would be interesting to me to see what CE posters of all political stripes and beliefs have to say about this one. And I think that many with very diverse views on the war may find it very interesting.

http://www.takimag.com/site/article/the_surge_is_it_soup_yet/
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Big_Bird



Joined: 31 Jan 2003
Location: Sometimes here sometimes there...

PostPosted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 2:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks RSR. Something for me to print out and read on the bus home. Wink
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The first dozen paragraphs are good, but then it loses focus and desolves into a rant.

The Surge hasn't provided Iraq with enough troops to stabilize the country. The economy is still in shambles, because the administration has cut off all reconstruction funds. The fundamentals are still bad, and the Surge is sadly nothing but a political ploy to stall support for the war by the Bush administration.

Still, there's no mention of the political failures by the Iraqi Congress, nor mention of the inability of the Sunni and the Shi'a to resolve their ethnic problems. Iraq will not succeed without Iraqis making large sacrifices across ethnic lines, and I just do not see that happening.
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TheUrbanMyth



Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired

PostPosted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 8:18 pm    Post subject: Re: Possibly the best Iraq analysis I've read Reply with quote

R. S. Refugee wrote:
As many of you know, I don't post much on this forum anymore... ]



Over the last 10 days though you've made about 33 posts.

Making up for lost time? Laughing

As for the article it's pretty much nonsense. TIME, Newsweek and The Economist all have written articles agreeing that the surge is working. Violence is dramatically down, and deaths have fallen. The author takes a bunch of third hand observations and strings them together with his own particular brand of logic which fails to measure up on several standards.

Let's look at one example here: The author states that "Even if the older, calmer Sunni chiefs want to take our money and relax, there'll be some young bloods who want to see American blood again, and they'll form their own little gangs."

Do you really think any chief worth his salt would tolerate a subordinate building up an alternative power base from his own ranks? Not to mention the possibility of losing American money and being attacked?
No sensible chief is going to let his young bloods get out of control. They step out of line and their families eat bullets.

Again violence is down and so are deaths. If young bloods were forming their own little gangs, that doesn't seem likely now, does it?
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catman



Joined: 18 Jul 2004

PostPosted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Many areas have been ethnically cleansed of rival factions. To try and keep this fragile peace the U.S. military has created and backed dozens of new Sunni militias, which now operate beyond the control of Iraq's central government. It is already beginning to back fire. The surge "victory" is a sham.
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patongpanda



Joined: 06 Feb 2007

PostPosted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 9:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ooh, it's by the War Nerd. I just can't get enough war-nerdery. Think I might buy the new book.

http://www.exile.ru/articles/list.php?IBLOCK_ID=35&SECTION_ID=156
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bucheon bum



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 9:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I read the first few paragraphs. No big surprises. yes, the bush administration poorly administered the war. haven't heard that one before.
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pkang0202



Joined: 09 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bucheon bum wrote:
I read the first few paragraphs. No big surprises. yes, the bush administration poorly administered the war. haven't heard that one before.


Much better than the Democrat's strategy of Cut and Run.

I remember when John Kerry was running for President he said he had this grand strategy to the Iraq War and he would unveil it when he won. He lost the election so now no one gets to know his "Grand Strategy" in Iraq that will solve all problems?

What about Obama and Hillary? what is their strategy for Iraq? It seems unfair for them to WAIT until they get to office to tell everyone what the strategy is. Shouldn't they publicly announce their brilliant Iraq strategy now before any more US soldiers and innocent Iraqi's die?


Liberals just point fingers and say, "yeah, what you are doing ISN'T working." I have yet to see a liberal come up with a solution OTHER than Cut and Run.
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some waygug-in



Joined: 25 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 2:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The saddest thing in the whole Iraq mess is the realization that "cutting and running" may just be the best solution.


It's a war that never should have been fought.


To try and justify the further waste of lives and resources by saying "well the Dems have no strategy" is just a red herring.

More lives lost and more money wasted isn't going to make things any better in Iraq. You're only hiding from the inevitable.


Back when this thing started I asked an American friend of mine for his thoughts on the Iraq war. He had spent several years in the military, so I respected his opinion... and still do.

He replied,"It isn't worth ONE life".

The whole thing is just a bad idea and it never should have been allowed to happen.

But now that it is happening, what's the best strategy?

Bush and his gang of nincompoops have made such a mess of things that I doubt anyone could come up with a good alternative to "cut and run".

But maybe that was the strategy, make a huge nightmare for the next guy to worry about and then maybe people will blame the Dems for not foreseeing a sensible way out of this mess.
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agentX



Joined: 12 Oct 2007
Location: Jeolla province

PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 5:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A great find, Refugee.
Quote:
That�s the best answer I can give on the Surge: if you�re willing to go on throwing away men and money�about $3 trillion according to that Nobel Prize hotshot Stiglitz�to prop up a lost cause, then yeah, it�s working great


Couldn't have said it any better myself.
This part here was really hard-hitting and accurate.
Quote:
There�s a way we could have used bribes to the Sunni officer corps much more effectively�just by keeping Saddam�s army on the payroll and putting them in new uniforms right after we took Baghdad. Then we could have jailed (or killed) the Sunni hard core, the guys who weren�t going to accept occupation. We didn�t do it because the official story was that except for Saddam�s sore-loser cousins in Tikrit, every man, woman, and donkey in Iraq loved us�and when that failed, we blasted Sunni neighborhoods indiscriminately.

If you don't believe the writer, watch Bush's War, Part II. Look for the the chapter where Bremer disbanded the Iraqi army and the retired general McCaffrey (I think) pleaded for him to change his mind.

Both the Dems have a plan to withdraw. Why? Because leaving is the only REAL solution that will work. It's time. This is worse that Vietnam (minus the casualty numbers), and staying there longer only makes the problem worse.
If any Reich-wingers out there want to continue the "Project for a New American Century" feel free to fight in Iraq on your own.

John McShame, the War Talk Express, wants to stay in Iraq just like we do in SK, Japan, and Germany. For a former Navy pilot, that kind of talk is nonsense.
We're not fighting Germans or Japanese. Our bases there prevent the countries in the immediate vicinity from fighting and/or nuking each other.

Is it worth it when our forces are committing suicide in record numbers?
http://articles.citypages.com/2008-03-26/feature/soldier-suicides-veterans-killing-themselves/
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Khenan



Joined: 25 Dec 2007

PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 7:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's an idea: Just completely pull out, but keep all of our troops in the near vacinity. Let them sort themselves out, and if the bad guys take over again, we can just move back in, kill them all, pull out again, and wash rinse repeat.
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greedy_bones



Joined: 01 Jul 2007
Location: not quite sure anymore

PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 8:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cut and run seems good enough to me.

I hesitatingly support Obama. Personally, I would've preferred Kucinich or Gravel, but it'll be another 50 or so years before candidates like them have a chance of getting elected.
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R. S. Refugee



Joined: 29 Sep 2004
Location: Shangra La, ROK

PostPosted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 2:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Khenan wrote:
Here's an idea: Just completely pull out, but keep all of our troops in the near vacinity. Let them sort themselves out, and if the bad guys take over again, we can just move back in, kill them all, pull out again, and wash rinse repeat.


You mean, "bad guys" haven't already taken over there? Good to know.
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