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Justin Hale

Joined: 24 Nov 2007 Location: the Straight Talk Express
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Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 1:27 pm Post subject: |
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Well, I've already said it - state-sponsored incentives (obviously financial). Precisely how much is appropriate I've no idea, but perhaps the salary of an experienced teacher or police officer? So $50,000-$60,000 per annum. For the career girls who are on 6 figs or more, it mightn't be much of an incentive, but in any case, my goal is to get young women out of McJobs like call centers and hagwons. This is as essential as getting young males out of hagwons and call centers and back plastering, plumbing, building and roofing. Whether the latter can come via the state I don't know, but certainly the marketplace can't get more babies born. What happens in today's society is that women believe they're doing their McJobs and their Sex and the City Studies degrees because of increased opportunity. What's actually taking place is decreased opportunity to get pregnant and raise children.
One of my heroines is Cherie Blair. She's one of Britain's top, most distinguished lawyers and had 4 kids. Compare that to Britain and its binge-drinking unemployable call center girls. |
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stillnotking

Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Location: Oregon, USA
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Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 3:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Justin Hale wrote: |
Well, I've already said it - state-sponsored incentives (obviously financial). Precisely how much is appropriate I've no idea, but perhaps the salary of an experienced teacher or police officer? So $50,000-$60,000 per annum. For the career girls who are on 6 figs or more, it mightn't be much of an incentive, but in any case, my goal is to get young women out of McJobs like call centers and hagwons. This is as essential as getting young males out of hagwons and call centers and back plastering, plumbing, building and roofing. Whether the latter can come via the state I don't know, but certainly the marketplace can't get more babies born. What happens in today's society is that women believe they're doing their McJobs and their Sex and the City Studies degrees because of increased opportunity. What's actually taking place is decreased opportunity to get pregnant and raise children.
One of my heroines is Cherie Blair. She's one of Britain's top, most distinguished lawyers and had 4 kids. Compare that to Britain and its binge-drinking unemployable call center girls. |
$50,000 per annum for what? Having kids?
You think there might be an incentive for people who want kids anyway to claim that little bonus? My guess would be that you'd get a nice little population boomlet, followed swiftly by the total collapse of the economy.
Incentives are fine for some things, but they're not going to work here. Certainly not an incentive of that magnitude. Some sort of child tax credit is a different matter, but most countries already have those and I'm guessing Italy does too.
The ability of the government to get people to make major life choices without significant coercion is quite limited. I'm glad to have it remain that way; life can sort itself out. |
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Justin Hale

Joined: 24 Nov 2007 Location: the Straight Talk Express
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Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 5:48 pm Post subject: |
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| stillnotking wrote: |
| Justin Hale wrote: |
One of my heroines is Cherie Blair. She's one of Britain's top, most distinguished lawyers and had 4 kids. Compare that to Britain and its binge-drinking unemployable call center girls. |
$50,000 per annum for what? Having kids? |
You're catching on real fast here, buddy.
| Stillnoking wrote: |
| You think there might be an incentive for people who want kids anyway to claim that little bonus? |
There'd have to be limits, but generally the people to whom you refer are the poor and I fail to see what bad can come from them having more money for doing one of the most important jobs in the world - producing offspring. It'd be exploited by the unsavory element inevitably but would at the same time lift them out of poverty.
| Stillnotking wrote: |
| My guess would be that you'd get a nice little population boomlet, followed swiftly by the total collapse of the economy. |
What evidence or reasoning led you to this conclusion? My guess is that low fertility rates, falling populations (threatening the solvency of pension and social insurance systems and the ability to care for the elderly), shrinking workforces (reduced productivity), mass immigration is likelier to have damaging consequences economically. In 2050, the over-65 population in the EU will be double what it is now. That's neither sustainable nor reparable by immigration. And for what? Because young women would rather do McJobs for paltry rates barely above minimum wage than get pregnant. That's how effective the status quo is which appears to recieve your support! In the early 20th century, white American women were having 3-4 kids. Now they're having less than 2. I'm not suggesting for a moment we go back to traditional gender roles, but rather modern society finds a way to achieve replacement level or slightly above and remove the need for mass and chiefly Muslim immigration. And the worst thing about immigration is that it doesn't solve the f-ing problems intended!
| Stillnotking wrote: |
| Incentives are fine for some things, but they're not going to work here. Certainly not an incentive of that magnitude. |
How's that? Diamonds are a girl's best friend. You honestly think all those unemployable girls with Women's Studies degrees getting paid $12 an hour assisting clients on the phone earning 4-times that, or women getting shafted by Korean hagwons, wouldn't find pregnancy and maternity attractive? We've really got to get our act together, otherwise EU countries like Germany and Italy are going to increasingly resemble Pakistan and Nigeria.
| stillnotking wrote: |
| Some sort of child tax credit is a different matter, but most countries already have those and I'm guessing Italy does too. |
I'd imagine Italy has a UK-style benefits system. In any case, it's not enough and a fertility rate 61% of mere replacement level is all the evidence you need.
| Stillnotking wrote: |
| The ability of the government to get people to make major life choices without significant coercion is quite limited. I'm glad to have it remain that way; life can sort itself out. |
I don't share that complacency. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 6:01 pm Post subject: |
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Justin,
How about instead of creating kiddie welfare, we incentivize the creation of children by providing childcare services. Most importantly, the State can fund higher education and learning. The idea is to bring the cost of having children down, and to allow incentives for people to not simply have children, but have educated and healthy children.
Giving $50k/year to mothers can go wrong in so many ways. What we need to do is allow women to work as much as they want without feeling guilty about taking care of children.
I would even go so far as incentivizing maid service and cleaning. Because the house gets dirty when you have children. |
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Justin Hale

Joined: 24 Nov 2007 Location: the Straight Talk Express
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Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 6:17 pm Post subject: |
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Maybe $30,000 would be better than $50,000, but really the latter is bollocks all these days.
Childcare idea was good, but it must be statist and dirt cheap or even free. |
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peppermint

Joined: 13 May 2003 Location: traversing the minefields of caddishness.
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Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 3:35 am Post subject: |
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Kuros, they're doing something along those lines in Quebec and have been for a while. Both childcare and higher education are highly subsidized for Quebec residents, and from what I understand, it's worked out quite well.
Back to JH's plan, I wonder what role if any, he envisions for fathers in his parenting plan, and why since he advocates young men taking up trades as opposed to white collar jobs, he's currently teaching? |
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blaseblasphemener
Joined: 01 Jun 2006 Location: There's a voice, keeps on calling me, down the road, that's where I'll always be
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Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 7:25 am Post subject: |
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| Both childcare and higher education are highly subsidized for Quebec residents, and from what I understand, it's worked out quite well. |
Paid for with transfer payments. Meanwhile, university tuition has skyrocketed in the "rich" provinces, and childcare is brutally expensive.
Oh, and Quebec is losing jobs and salaries are stagnant.
The wonders of Canada.
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005 Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 7:43 am Post subject: |
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Two separate things are being discussed here:
One. Why do women have a lower "official" employment rate in Italy, especially the southern portion, than other parts of Europe?
Question. Is the real employment rate lower or higher than the rest of Europe? Italy has the one of the largest underground economies in the world. Perhaps the real employment rate is higher than the rest of Europe.
Two. Declining birth rates. Before looking for "solutions" for this "problem" we must first find out if it is a problem. The world still seems overpopulated to many people. What gives anyone, government or otherwise, the right to choose the population level?
It's ironic that not long ago, all the "leftists" (really fascist-socialists) were lamenting the overpopulation of the world, demanding that action be taken. Now that we have adjusted to higher living standards and longer lifespans by reducing the birth rate through the wise and voluntary actions of individual choices of the citizens, the fascist-socialists are at it again. Now they are demanding action to increase the birth rate.
The only reason that declining birth rates have suddenly become a "crisis" for the fascist-socialists is that the unfunded, criminally fraudulent, fascist social security programs face their final collapse. So, their solution is to increase the birth rate. Assuming that these extra citizens would all work and contribute to continue the failed socialist security programs, it would still only delay the inevitable collapse.
Nazi Germany ran such a breeding program. Produced thousands of babies. Nice model for your efforts. |
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Justin Hale

Joined: 24 Nov 2007 Location: the Straight Talk Express
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Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 9:35 pm Post subject: |
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| peppermint wrote: |
Back to JH's plan, I wonder what role if any, he envisions for fathers in his parenting plan |
No dramatic differences. I do however endorse that more offspring will be the result of casual and promiscuous sex. That's great news for those women who seek offspring but not a husband or long-term partner and we guys who seek offspring but not a wife.
| Peppermint wrote: |
| and why since he advocates young men taking up trades as opposed to white collar jobs, he's currently teaching? |
I don't have those skills. No matter what you dangled in front of me, I could never be a plumber because I know I can't do it. Inside many young guy in a McJob or in a Drinking All Night and Getting Laid Studies department, there's a tradesman, an artisan and it needs to be goaded out for the sake of the individual and society. Same with young women earning their paltry pittance in hagwons and call centers who can't think of anything worse than getting pregnant. Many women, even those determined never to have kids, once they feel a life growing inside them, accept and embrace their fate. Like the guys who'd make great tradesmen, many of these women otherwise hostile to maternity would make great mothers and this mother needs to be set free both to save them from call center and hagwon hell and to save societies from low fertility rates and the problems that will bring widely agreed upon.
In any case, my profession is irrelvant and I'd appreciate it if we avoided ad hominem.
| ontheway wrote: |
| Two. Declining birth rates. Before looking for "solutions" for this "problem" we must first find out if it is a problem. The world still seems overpopulated to many people. |
Low fertility rates of 61% of replacement level are not an appropriate remedy for overpopulation.
| ontheway wrote: |
| What gives anyone, government or otherwise, the right to choose the population level? |
Nobody is "choosing the population level" so whether one has the right or not isn't relevant. What is being discussed is that fertility rates of 61% of replacement level are dangerous.
| ontheway wrote: |
| It's ironic that not long ago, all the "leftists" (really fascist-socialists) were lamenting the overpopulation of the world, demanding that action be taken. |
I'm certainly not a leftie. I'm a Tory.
| ontheway wrote: |
| Now that we have adjusted to higher living standards and longer lifespans by reducing the birth rate through the wise and voluntary actions of individual choices of the citizens, the fascist-socialists are at it again. Now they are demanding action to increase the birth rate. |
They're not wise, voluntary individual choices. They're not choices at all, let alone wise and voluntary.
Women who think they're working in a call center or hagwon for 50% of national earnings out of choice are kidding themselves. Like I said, what's actually happened is the choice to become a mom has diminished. Society detracts young women's attention away from maternity and onto binge drinking, useless liberal arts degrees, unemployability, student loan debt and low wages.
| ontheway wrote: |
| The only reason that declining birth rates have suddenly become a "crisis" for the fascist-socialists is that the unfunded, criminally fraudulent, fascist social security programs face their final collapse. So, their solution is to increase the birth rate. Assuming that these extra citizens would all work and contribute to continue the failed socialist security programs, it would still only delay the inevitable collapse. |
Sorry to hear you see the world as a simplistic good guy and bad guy leftie binary.
Anyway, health care systems, private and public, also face problems with increasingly elderly populations - as does the workforce. At this point, what we're looking at in the later 21st century is small and shrunken workforces looking after societies that are 40% over-65, increases in retirement age whereby the very people who were so hostile to manual trade and so hostile to maternity are still working in their 70s, whites becoming a racial minority in America, European cities becoming majority Muslim. Gee, thanks.
| ontheway wrote: |
| Nazi Germany ran such a breeding program. Produced thousands of babies. Nice model for your efforts. |
The age-old "the Nazis did X, therefore we shouldn't do X" fallacy.
The Nazis invented methadone, therefore we shouldn't use methadone in pharmacology. The Nazis built the autobahn, therefore we shouldn't erect highways.
Must be nice to live in a world of simplicities. |
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itaewonguy

Joined: 25 Mar 2003
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Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 6:04 am Post subject: |
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| Big_Bird wrote: |
[.
Basically the Italian men (and what a bunch of lazy f**kers they are) need herding into re-education camps where they should be forced to take classes in domestic science, learning how to cook and clean for themselves, so they can be of more use to themselves and less of a burden on their wives, who may then be more willing then to take on the added burden of offspring.
I was suprised to hear that so many Italian women were out of work, as I have long since been well aware of the low breeding rate among the Italians. So what are these women doing then? Spending their days waiting hand and foot on their lazy b******d menfolk, no doubt. |
shows you know nothing of ITALY!!
ItaLians are harder working than your canadian counter parts!!
youi want to call ITALIANS LAZY!! what ever tell that to the millions who go to work every day and keep producing the wonderful brands we see in the world today...
you no nothing of ITALY so keep your lazy fat mouth shut ok!!! |
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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 7:37 am Post subject: |
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Those who think the Italian State must intervene for the sake of Italy's population, must think again. The state is running broke, the economy is in the gutter, and young workers can't find work due to arcane employability laws. Also, when young people do find work, they're taxed to the hilt to pay for Italy's generous pension program. Many young workers would just rather find work themselves so they leave. Sorry, but with these ridiculous entitlements that Italy has already got to pay, I don't think Italy can afford $30,000pa for every mother. Besides, if young workers keep leaving, the state won't be able to tax their production.
I came accross this article a few days ago:
| Quote: |
Italy's Next Leader to Face Familiar WoesBy LUCA DI LEO
April 11, 2008; Page A10
ROME -- Whoever wins Italian elections on Sunday and Monday faces an unenviable task: restarting a stalled economy with an empty tank of gas.
For a decade, no matter who was in power, Italy's economy -- the world's seventh-largest -- has underperformed the rest of the euro zone. This year the International Monetary Fund predicts it won't grow at all.
The wide consensus among economists is that Italy must shrink the size of its state sector -- which accounts for about 50% of all economic activity -- and make it more efficient. It also needs to cut its crushing tax burden and increase the employment rate, especially for women and young people.
"The vital priorities are a drastic reduction in the cost of the state and of the fiscal burden on companies," says Riccardo Monti, Milan-based senior partner at the Boston Consulting Group.
There is also wide consensus that Italy's government lacks the tools to pull that off. Political power here is fragmented among dozens of interest groups, from unions to business lobbies. The outgoing Parliament counts about 20 separate parties. To win power, politicians must forge a broad parliamentary coalition, which in turn makes governing a daunting task.
"None of the political forces has the country's growth as its main focus of attention," said Corrado Passera, chief executive of Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, Italy's largest bank.
Center-right leader and two-time former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is slightly ahead in opinion polls against center-left leader and former Rome Mayor Walter Veltroni. At the end of March, when the last polls were published, Mr. Berlusconi led by about six percentage points. Since then, Mr. Veltroni has been staging a comeback, Nando Pagnoncelli of polling agency Ipsos said Thursday. Italian election law prohibits publishing poll data within two weeks of a vote.
The closer the race, the slimmer the majority in Parliament, which makes it difficult to pass unpopular measures. Outgoing center-left Prime Minister Romano Prodi tried to introduce more competition in local utilities, but was restrained by two Communist parties in his coalition. The parties, whose backing he needed to maintain his parliamentary majority, thought the changes would undermine their power over the local authorities that controlled the utilities.
"Political fragmentation could once again dilute the incisiveness and depth of reforms that Italy urgently needs," said Vladimir Pillonca, economist at Morgan Stanley in London.
Ultimately, Rome holds little sway over the rest of the country. Alitalia SpA, the country's struggling flagship carrier, is one symbol of political frailty. The government has been trying to sell its 49.9% stake in the airline for more than a year in order to keep it from going bust. But a recent deal to offload the company to Air France-KLM SA was blocked by the airline's nine unions as well as regional political interests.
Now, Italy's next government must grapple with the risk of recession. But it has few tools at its disposal. Spain, for example, is about to use its budget surplus to start a massive stimulus package to counter the effects of the global slowdown. In Italy, the well has been dry. Rome has been running one of the highest budget deficits in the euro zone recently and has the highest debt as well.
Both Mr. Berlusconi and Mr. Veltroni are proposing a similar plan: spend on infrastructure, cut government waste and taxes and sell state assets to slash debt.
Past governments have started similar drives but produced scant results, largely because governments are beholden to special interests.
A decade of political inaction has begun to tear at the country's social fabric and now stands to provoke tension. About one in four Italians gets by on pensions. That has shifted a large chunk of taxpayer resources toward the elderly. Meanwhile, unemployment among younger Italians is spiking. The jobless rate for Italians aged 15-24 stood at 23.2% in the fourth quarter of 2007, compared with a national average of 6.6%. Schools in Italy are compulsory until age 15.
Salaries are among the bottom of the 30 industrialized nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.And Italian employers have lost competitiveness because of high labor taxes.Italian labor productivity stood at zero between 2001 and 2006, compared with +1.3% for the average of the original 15 European Union countries.
Protracted economic stagnation "could lead to a rise in social tensions, especially between the young and the old," says Tito Boeri, professor at Milan's Bocconi university.
Italian society is leaving little to its younger generation. It has a creaky education system and most young people find employment only through poorly paid temporary work contracts. Meanwhile, the older generation continues to benefit from contracts that make it impossible for companies to fire them, and enjoy healthy state pension benefits.
The country's demographic trend will accelerate the division. About 20% of Italy's population is over 65, among the highest ratio in Europe, while immigration is lower than in France, Spain or Germany.
But the country's political class has been powerless to address the issue. Even routine decisions on basic projects get bogged down. Italy has been trying to build a high-speed rail link with France for more than a decade, but has been stymied by resistance from a few small towns along the route.
And the country almost ran out of natural gas in 2006. Plans to build new terminals that can receive shipments of liquified natural gas remain stalled.
Italy relies heavily on gas imports for its energy needs and a new LNG plant could provide for about 10% of Italy's annual gas consumption.
BG Italia, a unit of BG Group PLC, first proposed building an LNG terminal in Brindisi, in the south, in 1999. Because of bureaucracy and opposition from local authorities, BG Italia Chief Executive Damiano Ratti predicts that the company will struggle to meet a 2010 deadline, meaning the terminal will take almost 12 years. "That's almost twice as much as a similar project in a country like Spain," he says.
Write to Luca Di Leo at [email protected]
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stillnotking

Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Location: Oregon, USA
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Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 10:46 am Post subject: |
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Exactly... giving mothers some huge cash payout just for popping out kids is ridiculous and would never work. You'd have to give it to all of them, and the state would be broke in a year.
Basically, I think social engineering is all bollocks anyway. The Law of Unintended Consequences is so powerful that no one can predict the actual results of any government program aimed at raising the birthrate. Government should focus on individual needs and let people live their lives as they see fit.
Expansion of social services, like universal health care, more paid time off, more daycare, etc. might have the effect of raising birthrates. Then again, they might not. I don't really care, because I support them for individual reasons. Trying to shape the course of a society's future is a game for fools and fascists. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 11:02 am Post subject: |
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| peppermint wrote: |
Kuros, they're doing something along those lines in Quebec and have been for a while. Both childcare and higher education are highly subsidized for Quebec residents, and from what I understand, it's worked out quite well.
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That sounds like something we might investigate doing in some of the states. Mind you, I'd like to see the idea tried out state-by-state, because if people really didn't like financing such programs, they could move to, say, Delaware.
I agree with JH that fertility rates are worth our attention. Although his embrace of statism makes me a little wary.
But the second reason I advocate children programs is for the children themselves. About a third of American homes have only one mother. This is stifling opportunity for the children who live in these homes. However you feel about the decisions the mother made (or the absent father mad), the children themselves are not at fault. So, I'd like the state expand to provide voluntary childcare services. Because today's children are tomorrow's workforce. We need to worry more about whether there will be enough of them. We need to also assure they will be ready to perform in the workforce. |
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Justin Hale

Joined: 24 Nov 2007 Location: the Straight Talk Express
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Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 2:33 pm Post subject: |
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| stillnotking wrote: |
| Exactly... giving mothers some huge cash payout just for popping out kids is ridiculous and would never work. You'd have to give it to all of them, and the state would be broke in a year. |
Why the massive dearth of facts in support of the assertion?
Your position above is: if the state (admittedly I concern myself with the state per se and not the Italian state necessarily) paid moms a generous salary as it does teachers and police officers and fire fighters, the state would collapse within a year. What study, what evidence, which facts, convinced you to take this position?
| SNK wrote: |
Basically, I think social engineering is all bollocks anyway. The Law of Unintended Consequences is so powerful that no one can predict the actual results of any government program aimed at raising the birthrate. Government should focus on individual needs and let people live their lives as they see fit.
Expansion of social services, like universal health care, more paid time off, more daycare, etc. might have the effect of raising birthrates. Then again, they might not. I don't really care, because I support them for individual reasons. Trying to shape the course of a society's future is a game for fools and fascists. |
I find you needlessly and purposefully contrarian here, SNK. |
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Adventurer

Joined: 28 Jan 2006
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Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 9:54 pm Post subject: |
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| peppermint wrote: |
Kuros, they're doing something along those lines in Quebec and have been for a while. Both childcare and higher education are highly subsidized for Quebec residents, and from what I understand, it's worked out quite well.
Back to JH's plan, I wonder what role if any, he envisions for fathers in his parenting plan, and why since he advocates young men taking up trades as opposed to white collar jobs, he's currently teaching? |
In France and Sweden, it is even subsidized more. I think subsidizing daycare entails not penalizing women for having children. I mean without the mothers there would be no men, anyway, so men shouldn't grumble about subsidizing mothers who want to work. There would be no tax base without women. Many white collar jobs, on the subject of white collar jobs, don't necessarily pay so well considering the debt you incur.
If you can get a good trade instead you can make as much or more.
People need to very careful about incurring debt if they want to have families as well which is becoming a problem in Canada and the U.S. |
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