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[Gopher]

[stillnotking]

Final victory margin was about 9.4%, pretty much what the (good) pollsters have been predicting all along. Shock.

Of course results are all about spin, so this will be spun as a dramatic closing of the gap (by Obamans) or as a heroic victory in the face of being hugely outspent (Clintonians). The media will have their usual field day speculating on the silliest of "reasons" for a victory that was eminently predictable by demography.

In all likelihood, if this primary had been held on March 22 instead of April 22, the margin of victory would have been... 9.4%. (Maybe a bit higher. All those Obama ads probably had some effect, although I suspect people are more likely to be annoyed than persuaded.) Poll movement in the later stages represented undecideds making up their minds. If the vote had been taken a month earlier, they'd have made up their minds a month earlier.

[Ya-ta Boy]

I saw this on Yahoo and figured it spoke to the issue at hand:

Why Obama can't close deal

He's flush with cash. He oversees a high-tech political movement. His "change" message fits these anxious times. And, until recently, he had momentum. So why didn't he win Tuesday?

Longer term, he's got problems. Here are five reasons why Clinton is still alive. Five ways he'd be vulnerable in November.

RACE: The jury is still out on whether a black man can overcome America's original sin and be elected president.

WORKING-CLASS VOTERS: Obama can't win the presidency unless he starts connecting better with blue-collar voters.

FRIENDS IN TROUBLE: The longer the campaign goes, the more questions Obama faces about his friends and associates.

INEXPERIENCE: It's true that Clinton has never run a government or a business, but many voters give her credit for proximity. They consider her experience as first lady preparation for the presidency.

METTLE: Clinton's backers love the fact that she fought Republicans � not to mention the "right-wing conspiracy" � during her husband's presidency. Many Democrats wonder whether Obama is tough enough, a charge that he should be putting to rest in this brass-knuckle nominating contest. But he hasn't.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap_campaignplus/20080423/ap_ca/on_deadline_pennsylvania

This list looks fairly accurate to me. It seems to condense the common criticisms into an understandable argument.

If Obama can figure out a way to relate to the working class, show some mettle and handle the friends issue, that might take care of the experience question. Of course, there's nothing much he can do about the race issue, but I'm not fully convinced even that is insurmountable.

[stillnotking]

Why can't Obama "close the deal"? Hmm. Six months ago he was a ridiculous longshot, a freshman Senator facing off against the best-known name in Democratic politics. He trailed Clinton badly in the polls and was priced at 10% to 20% in the trading markets. Now, he's the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination, is leading Clinton by ten points in national polling, and she is priced at ten to twenty percent. And we're supposed to believe that Obama is underperforming somehow?

As I mentioned in this post, the idea that Obama is in trouble because he can't pull a majority of the white working class is very one-sided. No Democratic candidate since Carter has won the white working class. Hillary would not win the white working class. There's no reason to think that Hillary would get more white-working-class votes than Obama would. Sure, they prefer a liberal white woman over an even more liberal black man in the Democratic primary, but will they prefer a liberal woman over a conservative man in the general election? Sheerest optimism. The DLC and their surrogates are forever trying to convince the party that their salvation lies in the white working class; meanwhile, the white working class stubbornly persists in voting for Republican Presidents and the country's demographics continue to shift.

The jury will be out on race until a black man actually is elected President. Likewise, the jury will be out on gender until a woman is elected President. I don't get the preoccupation with these "Are we racist? Are we sexist?" questions. Either we are, or we aren't. Maybe we'll find out the answer to one or the other this year. (And no, I'm not suggesting that an Obama or Clinton loss would prove bigotry.)

The "questions" Obama has faced about his friends and associates haven't dented his polling at all. It's interesting to me that Clinton criticized Obama as not having been "vetted", but now that he has been vetted and is still winning the race, she criticizes him for that too. Another lose-lose, it seems. Both Obama and Clinton have baggage; Clinton's is actually much worse, but hasn't been heard about much this year because Obama declines to bring it up and because the GOP very badly want to run against Clinton. Why would they sabotage her in the primary? The general would be a different story, obviously, and her new BFF Richard Mellon Scaife would turn on her like a shot.

Experience is her only halfway-valid argument. But there are two problems with it. First, if it's such a great selling point, why is she losing the primary election? And second, do you really think Hillary can run against John McCain on a platform of "experience"?

[Kuros]

[stillnotking]

[Kuros]

[stillnotking]

Lots of numbers in this Galston article that Slate linked to. Galston's a DLC bigwig, a Mondale/Clinton veteran, so obviously I don't agree with his prescriptions, but facts are facts.

The biggest problem for the Democrats, with this group, is that they're never going to be perceived as the party of strong national security and religious values. They have gone as far to the right as they can possibly go without alienating the educated, urban populations that are rapidly becoming their base. The DLC is trying to fight a retrograde action to reforge the FDR coalition -- but the world simply looks very different today than it did in 1932.

[Gopher]

Rather than focus on Obama alone, I would rather ask why neither of them can seal the deal. Apparently there is a rift over at least one or another issue that divides Democrats in the primaries.

[Kuros]

[stillnotking]

[Gopher]

[stillnotking]

[Gopher]

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