Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Ut videam]

Does anyone know if any of the restaurants or bars in Itaewon or elsewhere are doing anything for the Kentucky Derby? Being a native of the Bluegrass, it'd be nice to find a place where I could sip mint juleps and watch the pageantry (not to mention the race itself), even if I have to wait 'til Sunday afternoon and do it by tape delay.

Any leads?

[silentwhispers]

[hogwonguy1979]

nobody here does anything for it, best bet is one of the online sources to watch it live.

having been to one nothing compares to hearing "My Old Kentucky Home" during the post parade it puts a lump in your throat. Growing up in southern Ohio May was wonderful, start the month at the twin spires of the Derby, then end it at the Indy 500

[Ut videam]

[bacasper]

So who do you like in the race?

[Rteacher]

Well, you can experience being on the Churchill Downs infield in cyberspace: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/experience/infield

And you can see real live (more-or-less) horses at Seoul Racecourse Park in Gwacheon (light-blue line 436...)

They usually show the Derby replay on big screen (and you can experience the thrill of losing money betting against favorites that always seem to win here ...)

They don't allow alcohol on the premises though - not even for the "Korean Derby"...

[Ut videam]

[bacasper]

[hogwonguy1979]

I'll be in Hong Kong, wonder if the Jockey Club will have something? hopefully they'll have betting

my best Derby memory was 1983 those days it was $10 to get in to the infield there was no turf course so you were really close to the action I was in the infield drunk and about 40 minutes before post time a big old thunderstorm comes up, wind whipping etc and I can see on top of scoreboard or whatever they call it there was Howard Cossell trying to hold his toupee on with little Bill Hartack trying to hold the umbrella over the two of them.

[Ut videam]

[Rteacher]

You must have been really drunk - 'cause Howard Cosell died in 1995.

In my lifetime, only two fillies have won the Kentucky Derby - "Genuine Risk" (1980) and "Winning Colors" (1988)

(I picked "Rags to Riches" to win the Belmont last year.)

However, I think it's very hard for a filly to win the Derby when there's a full field of 20.

"Eight Belles" has a pretty good record, though ...
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/contenders/eight-belles

[hogwonguy1979]

my mistake it was 1983 was it Gato del Sol or Sunny's Halo that won it that year.

[Ut videam]

Well, Big Brown drew the far outside post. That's pretty much the kiss of death in a Derby with a full field of 20.

Pyro and Colonel John are sitting pretty in slots 9 and 10. I think they'll end up as the betting favorites at post time. And looking at their records, you can't count them out.

Nevertheless, the Derby is a day for long shots. With that in mind, I'm going with Tale of Ekati - Court Vision - Eight Belles. I'd probably box or wheel them with Pyro and Colonel John for the exotics.

The field with post positions and morning line odds: http://www.kentucky.com/601/story/392234.html
Free past performances from the Daily Racing Form: http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/pps/kentuckyderby08.pdf

Happy handicapping!

[Rteacher]

There seems to be more real contenders than usual. Pyro evidently likes the track, and Colonel John is in good form, so at least one of them figures to be in the trifecta.

I don't think either of their (very capable) jockeys has ever won the Derby, though.

I haven't carefully studied the race yet, but I'll take a stab based on some jockey-trainer angles and post positions ...

Eight Belles certainly has speed, but I'm not at all familiar with her jockey, Saez. Court Vision starts along side of her and has top jockey Gomez aboard so I think the latter may benefit from the filly's speed (but I'll have to check the form to see what kind of tactical speed each has shown.)

Bob's Black Jack in the 13th pp definitely has tactical speed - and fast breaking jockey Migliore on him - but that might benefit the horses to his outside (most of whom have classy jockeys...)

I kinda like Monba (with Dominguez), Cowboy Cal (Johnny V), Gayego (Mike Smith), and the favorite Big Brown (with Desourmeaux)

I also think at least one of the "Z" horses will get into the Superfecta - probably Z-Fortune (with Robbie Albarado)

Churchill Downs veteran jockey Calvin Borel figures to get the best trip for Denis of Cork - but it's questionable if that horse has enough talent and experience to beat this tough field.

Coa and Tagg are a good combination on Tale of Ekati ...

So, based on practically nothing but a hunch, I'll go with Recapturetheglory to top a big trifecta....

[bacasper]

Having seen the form and posts now, I can make some selections. First you can forget that filly. She's not winning it this year.

My pick, especially at morning line odds, would have to be Pyro at 6-1. His only bad race was his last but I give every horse one bad race. Glad it was then and not now (I hope).

Except for that race, if it weren't for War Pass, who would have been the favorite if he were in the Derby, Pyro would be 5 for 6, including two Grade 1's. Big Brown may be better but he must prove it. And at 6-1 vs. 3-1, I'm going with Pyro. I suspect those odds are false however, and I would not be surprised if Pyro were the favorite at post time, in which case the calculus may lean the other way. I'm definitely boxing the exacta.

I really like Big Brown, 3 for 3, awesome Beyers, and he has the speed to get at or near the front even from post 20. He outran the other Derby contrender, Smooth Air, in a 3 furlong workout yesterday by 2 1/2 seconds! Yes, Secretariat smashed the Belmont track record by 2 3/5 seconds, but that was a mile and a half! For that kind of margin in 3f is unbelievable. (Of course I know they weren't racing, but still.) And he's not only 3 for 3, but he just kept widening his lead in every race from start to finish. If he had a bit more experience, he'd be a formidable favorite. 3-1 is not a bad price for him, altho I wouldn't like it to go much lower. One great thing about the Derby, you get great prices, what with the 20-horse fields and all.

You can't help but compare Big Brown to last year's Curlin' who also entered undefeated after only three starts and looked formidable. But it is really hard for such a green horse to win the Derby but this guy just may be special. Of course, Curlin' did go on to win the Preakness.

Colonel John, out of six races winner of four, including the Santa Anita Derby, never worse than second lifetime. He will be up there. Include him in your exotics.

For the Superfecta, you may want to throw in Tale of Ekati. Although beaten soundly twice by Pyro, he did beat War Pass last out. Only trouble with that is it was a very subpar performance for War Pass.

Longshots: Smooth Air, Court Vision, Bob Black Jack.

It's a horse race. Anything can happen. Good luck to all.