Korean Job Discussion Forums

[kiwiduncan]

So, oil prices are predicted to reach $200 a barrel within 2 years or even as early as late 2008.

http://www.moneyhighstreet.com/feature/243/

With Korea being one of the most crowded and heavily industrialized countries in the world, combined with its reliance on oil imports for 100% of its energy needs (even 50% of its electricity is generated from oil I've read), I'd say this country is going to be more screwed than most.

I think the economic meltdown in Korea could be far worse than in many other places over the next few years. Who else here is thinking that, for English teachers, the golden weather is over?

[Intrepid]

You're right to be concerned, but I wonder if Korea might have a little more cushion than, say, the US, which I'll use as a comparison.
First, motorists already pay US$7/gallon for gas--so if the price goes to $10 it will hurt, but they're used to it.
Next, if gas goes that high, there's always the public transportation system, which is cheap right now by most standards. And, Korea is not so spread out.
They're self-sufficient in rice, which is rising because of rising fuel costs (and other reasons), and already pay well over market rates for rice, so that will not be as much of a shock.
Also, Korea doesn't use nearly as much oil per capita as the US, Canada, etc. 2 million barrels a day for 48 million people. The US uses 4 million for the same number.
Just my thoughts--gleaned mostly from www.energybulletin.net

[cdninkorea]

It will have a dramatic affect on Korea. I don't condone or want it, but the government might just subsidize the extra cost for public transportation, leaving the direct cost roughly the same. Goods would be more expensive still of course, but that will be the case in our countries too.

Perhaps it's just one more reason to get a contract at somewhere relatively secure. Will it lead to an economic meltdown? By what process exactly do you think this will happen, and if here, why not in our countries too (this is important because if our living conditions in Korea decline, hopefully our prospects in our home countries don't decline also else where are we to go)?

All this being said, I'm no economist.

[BS.Dos.]

[RJjr]

Lately, Cheney has been talking more about attacking Iran than he usually does. Also, I know of a Jewish-American guy whose American daughter works for Israeli intelligence and he's been saying the US is going to bomb Iran. I still don't think it will happen, but if it does, I think oil will go to at least $300. Even though Korea is one of the safest countries, I think it would be unsafe for foreigners in that scenario. I'm looking forward to the day Obama takes over the White House.

[kiwiduncan]

[skeeterses]

Considering that $120/barrel oil seems to have no effect on Korea, it seems tempting to think that $200/barrel oil will also have no effect. After all, I go outside and still see the cars and trucks moving outside.

Part of the reason that oil is going up in price if because of increased demand. And South Korea is a wealthy country. South Korea has a very big industrial base, and other countries are buying South Korean products. China and Japan also have a big industrial base too. These countries have wealth, and they're using that wealth to buy cars and to put gasoline into their cars. This country, is where the increased demand is coming from.

[kiwiduncan]

[BS.Dos.]

Demand factors are one aspect of it, but supply is another. Either OPEC are deliberately reducing production to spike prices or the wells are drying up. Either way, Korea's economy, being largely based on manufacturing, is going to feel the squeeze at some point. The money that they are throwing at astronomically priced oil would be better spent on investing in renewables. However, this is like trying to close the gate after the horse has already bolted. Like eggs and baskets, developing your economy around a few select industrial sectors is not a particularly wise thing to do.

I remember when I was an undergrad reading about which economies would be most affected by rising oil prices. Not surprisingly, Japan was considered as being most at risk and was seen as having the most to lose as it is dependent on imports for practically everything. The other Tiger economy I seem to remember being equally at risk was SK.

[skeeterses]

As far as the factories are concerned, my impression is that the South Korean Government is determined to keep the heavy industries in business no matter what the cost of oil. If oil shortages do occur, the military and the big companies like Posco and Hyundai will get first takes on the oil and everyone else will be forced to cut back on their driving.

Back around 1999, South Korea started the construction of a new shipping port north of Pohang. Almost 10 years later, construction crews are still building the big roads around that area and cutting down forest land. $100/barrel oil did not faze the South Korean leaders one bit. Their vision of South Korea becoming a maritime power in the 21st Century is not something that will easily be shaken.

And South Korea is still trying to expand its factories and continue with its highway construction projects, and that is with oil over $120/barrel of this moment.

[kiwiduncan]

[blurgalurgalurga]

Having less private vehicles on the road would be a very good thing. The oil price will make aircon and heat bloody expensive though...
As to how this will affect our jobs, I'd guess that it won't be major. English is seen as a ticket to success here, and that woun't change. However, our salaries will buy less, if suddenly food and booze and electricity prices go up a lot. Also people will have fewer and fewer kids, as is already the trend, so obviously ten or twenty years down the road there will be far fewer teaching jobs, and fewer private universities.
Short term though, probably the biggest burn on us will be skyrocketing airline prices. No pun intended.

[fusionbarnone]

[Zeus]

If the South Koreans are nice and continue to distance themselves from the United States Russia will give them a good deal. The world is FULL OF OIL, there is no excuse. Don't buy the oil shortage BULLSHIT the American propaganda machine is feeding you. Back in the 70's America came out with an official study that stated that there would be no more oil left in the world by the year 2010. The Brazillians just found an oil field that can supply all the world's refineries with oil for the next 10 years. A company in America has discovered an oil field somewhere near Iowa that can handle all of America's oil needs for the next 100 years. Wake up people...

[BS.Dos.]

^



Really? Any chance you could share your sources?