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blade
Joined: 30 Jun 2007
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 Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 7:44 pm Post subject: The Iraq War means oil costs three times more than it should |
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Do people still think it was a good idea to invade Iraq?
| Quote: |
Oil: A global crisis
The Iraq War means oil costs three times more than it should, says a leading expert. How are our lives going to change as we struggle to cope with the $200 barrel? Geoffrey Lean reports
Sunday, 25 May 2008
The invasion of Iraq by Britain and the US has trebled the price of oil, according to a leading expert, costing the world a staggering $6 trillion in higher energy prices alone.
The oil economist Dr Mamdouh Salameh, who advises both the World Bank and the UN Industrial Development Organisation (Unido), told The Independent on Sunday that the price of oil would now be no more than $40 a barrel, less than a third of the record $135 a barrel reached last week, if it had not been for the Iraq war.
He spoke after oil prices set a new record on 13 consecutive days over the past two weeks. They have now multiplied sixfold since 2002, compared with the fourfold increase of the 1973 and 1974 "oil shock" that ended the world's long postwar boom.
Goldman Sachs predicted last week that the price could rise to an unprecedented $200 a barrel over the next year, and the world is coming to terms with the idea that the age of cheap oil has ended, with far-reaching repercussions on their activities.
Dr Salameh, director of the UK-based Oil Market Consultancy Service, and an authority on Iraq's oil, said it is the only one of the world's biggest producing countries with enough reserves substantially to increase its flow.
Production in eight of the others � the US, Canada, Iran, Indonesia, Russia, Britain, Norway and Mexico � has peaked, he says, while China and Saudia Arabia, the remaining two, are nearing the point at of decline. Before the war, Saddam Hussein's regime pumped some 3.5 million barrels of oil a day, but this had now fallen to just two million barrels.
Dr Salameh told the all-party parliamentary group on peak oil last month that Iraq had offered the United States a deal, three years before the war, that would have opened up 10 new giant oil fields on "generous" terms in return for the lifting of sanctions. "This would certainly have prevented the steep rise of the oil price," he said. "But the US had a different idea. It planned to occupy Iraq and annex its oil."
Chris Skrebowski, the editor of Petroleum Review, said: "There are many ifs in the world oil market. This is a very big one, but there are others. If there had been a civil war in Iraq, even less oil would have been produced."
David Strahan: What happens next? The expert's view
At just under 86 million barrels per day, global oil production has, essentially, stagnated since 2005, despite soaring demand, suggesting that production has already reached its geological limits, or "peak oil".
Recession in the West may not provide relief on prices. There is increasing demand from countries such as China, Russia and the Opec countries, whose consumers are cushioned against rising prices by heavy subsidies. The future could unfold in a number of ways:
Oil price collapses
Fuel subsidies could suddenly be scrapped, dousing demand. Cost pressures have forced Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan to cut them, but China is hardly strapped for cash. Opec producers are under no pressure to abolish subsidies; as the oil price rises they get richer. Prospect: very unlikely.
Peace could break out in Iraq, the long-disputed oil law agreed, and international oil companies start work on the world's largest collection of untapped oil fields. Prospect: vanishingly unlikely.
Oil price stabilises or moderates
Deep recession in the West might cut oil consumption enough to offset growth in the developing world and Opec, or even engulf them too, softening prices. Prospect: unlikely in the short term.
Oil price soars
Russian oil output has gone into decline; Saudi Arabia has shelved plans to expand production capacity, and advisers to the Nigerian government predict its output will fall by 30 per cent by 2015. More news like this, expect oil at $200 a barrel. Prospect: likely.
Big oil producers will increasingly divert exports for home consumption. Opec, Russian and Mexican exports expected to fall, pushing oil to $200 by 2012. Prospect: highly likely.
The writer is author of 'The Last Oil Shock', John Murray, lastoilshock.com
Peak oil
After 150 years of growth, the oil age is beginning to come to an end. "Peak oil" is the common term for when production stops increasing and starts to decline. At that point what have been ever-expanding and cheap supplies of the resource on which all modern economies depend become scarcer and more expensive, with potentially devastating consequences.
Pessimists believe that production has passed its peak. Optimists say it may be 20 years or so away � which would give us some time to prepare � but are now muted. Last week the hitherto optimistic International Energy Agency admitted that it may have overestimated future capacity. Chris Skrebowski, editor of 'Petroleum Review' and once an optimist himself, believes that the world is now in "the foothills of peak oil". Prices may ease a bit over the next few years, but then the real crunch will come. The price then? "Pick a number!"
Travel
Oil provides 95 per cent of the energy used in transport, so this will be hit hard and soon. People are likely to go on using their cars, but airlines are expected to be the first to suffer. On Thursday, British Airways' chief executive Willie Walsh declared that the era of cheap flights was over, suggesting that those environmentalists who have made them their main target for combating climate change may have been wasting their breath.
At least three carriers have already gone bust this year. Last week, American Airlines said it was cutting routes, laying off staff, and charging US passengers $15 to check in a bag because of a $3bn rise in its fuel bills. Even Michael O'Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, says the oil price is "really hurting". On Thursday, Credit Suisse analysts said his company would slip into the red if oil prices rose just a little more, to $140 a barrel.
Cars
The world's biggest oil well, it is said, lies beneath Detroit. US vehicles get an average of only 25 miles per gallon. Dramatically improving this would do more to ease the oil crunch than any likely new discovery. But new measures recently approved by Congress would increase the average only to the 35mpg already being achieved by China. Europe does better, if not well enough, at 44mpg.
Rising fuel prices are already beginning to drive change. Sales of 4x4s are plummeting in both the US and Britain, and those of hybrids � which do 60mpg are soaring. As the price climbs further, manufacturers will unlock long-prepared plans for much more efficient vehicles. "Plug-in" hybrids, charged up with electricity overnight, save another 45 per cent in petrol consumption. Further down the line is the "hypercar" � made of tough, light plastic � which could cross the US on a single tankful.
Houses
All new houses in Britain will have to be zero carbon � burning no fossil fuels such as oil � by 2016, the Government announced, and housebuilders are struggling to meet the target. At present the standard can be reached only at great expense, but the industry is confident of bringing the cost down as mass production kicks in. It is even more important to adapt existing homes.
The key step is to super-insulate the house to make it as energy-efficient as possible � and only then to provide renewable energy sources. Solar water heaters, ground source heat pumps and boilers powered by wood pellets are favourites. Rooftop windmills do not work well enough yet. Photovoltaic panels, which get electricity from the sun, are expensive but their price should come down. Britain has lagged behind other countries. Soaring energy prices should shake things up.
Shopping
Effectively, almost everything is partially made of oil, and so is going to get more expensive. About 10 calories of oil are burned to produce each calorie of food in the US, and farming a single cow and getting it to market uses as much as driving from New York to Los Angeles. Some 630g of fuel is used to produce every gram of microchips.
The cult of local, seasonal produce will enter the mainstream, as everyone learns about food miles and a modern-day Dig for Victory grips gardeners � bad news for the farm workers overseas who provide 95 per cent of our fruit and half our vegetables. Trips to out-of-town supermarkets will seem extravagant, heralding a high street renaissance and a new surge in online grocery shopping, and soon we'll all be eating our own potatoes.
Third World
Poor countries and their peoples will be hit by a devastating double whammy as both their fuel and food prices increase. Last year, when oil cost only about half as much, countries from Nepal to Nicaragua were hit by fuel shortages. At least 25 of the 44 sub-Saharan nations are facing crippling electricity shortages.
As oil is used in agriculture, its increased cost will also drive up the price of food, making more and more people go hungry. Worse, expensive petrol is bound to increase the drive towards biofuels made from maize and other crops, which then brings the world's poorest people into competition with affluent motorists for grain � a contest they cannot win. Just one fill-up of a 4x4's tank with ethanol uses enough grain to feed one person for a year.
Emerging economies
China and India and other developing countries will help to drive up demand for oil and compete for scarce supplies. This has already helped to raise prices: demand for oil from Western countries has actually fallen over the past two years, but the emerging economies have more than made up the slack. And they have the money to do so.
Chinese and Indian consumers have so far been insulated from the effects of the price increase by heavy government subsidies, and their industrial revolutions and rapid growth are largely fuelled by oil. There is little sign that the growth in demand will slacken These countries are also likely to follow the time-honoured Western tradition of making deals with oil-exporting countries � and backing unpleasant regimes � to try to secure supplies.
Conflict
Last week. the embattled Gordon Brown � "incredibly focused" on oil, according to his spin-doctors � began playing the blame game. "It is a scandal," he said, "that 40 per cent of the oil is controlled by Opec and that their decisions can restrict the supply of oil to the rest of the world."
Someone should tell him that he should be blaming geology � or God � and that, as oil production peaks, Opec countries simply will not be able to pump more. But he is not alone; four US senators warned Saudi Arabia that if it did not step up the flow, the US might withdraw its military support.
There will be much more of this as supplies tighten. Three years ago, a US army report predicted oil would soon peak, and security risks increase. Expect oil wars. But, of course, we have already had one � in Iraq.>
Archie Bland
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/oil-a-global-crisis-834023.html
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VanIslander
Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Geoje, Hadong, Tongyeong,... now in a small coastal island town outside Gyeongsangnamdo!
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| Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 7:51 pm Post subject: Re: The Iraq War means oil costs three times more than it sh |
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| blade wrote: |
| Do people still think it was a good idea to invade Iraq? |
Ask Bush Oil. |
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Big_Bird
Joined: 31 Jan 2003
Location: Sometimes here sometimes there...
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| Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 7:52 pm Post subject: |
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Ha. In the lead up to the war, when asked in an interview why he was using his global media empire to vigorously campaign for the war:
| Rupert Murdoch wrote: |
The greatest thing to come out of this for the world economy, if you could put it that way, would be $20 a barrel for oil. That's bigger than any tax cut in any country.
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| Quote: |
Murdoch praises Blair's 'courage'
by Julia Day
Wednesday February 12, 2003, The Guardian
Rupert Murdoch has given his full backing to war, praising George Bush as acting "morally" and "correctly" and describing Tony Blair as "full of guts" for going out on a limb in his support for an attack on Iraq.
The media tycoon said he was completely behind Mr Bush and Mr Blair as they faced opposition from Germany and France. Much of the world, he said, cannot accept that America is the only superpower.
"I think Tony is being extraordinarily courageous and strong on what his stance is in the Middle East. It's not easy to do that living in a party which is largely composed of people that have a knee-jerk anti-Americanism and are sort of pacifist," Mr Murdoch told the Australian news magazine The Bulletin. "But he's shown great guts, as he did, I think, in Kosovo and over various problems in the old Yugoslavia."
Mr Murdoch was unequivocal about war with Iraq. "We can't back down now. I think Bush is acting very morally, very correctly, and I think he is going to go on with it."
He said the price of oil would be one of the war's main benefits. "The greatest thing to come out of this for the world economy, if you could put it that way, would be $20 a barrel for oil. That's bigger than any tax cut in any country."
Mr Murdoch's comments come just a week after he told Fortune magazine in the US that war could fuel an economic boom.
"Who knows what the future holds? I have a pretty optimistic medium and long-term view but things are going to be pretty sticky until we get Iraq behind us. But once it's behind us, the whole world will benefit from cheaper oil which will be a bigger stimulus than anything else," he told Fortune.
Mr Murdoch believes there is no doubt that President Bush will be re-elected if he wins the war with Iraq and the US economy remains healthy.
"He will either go down in history as a very great president or he'll crash and burn. I'm optimistic it will be the former by a ratio of two to one." |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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| blade wrote: |
| Do people still think it was a good idea to invade Iraq? |
I would like to see a list of posters on this message board who answer "yes."
This is a chip-on-the-shoulder, strawman way to introduce your story, Blade. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 10:36 pm Post subject: Re: The Iraq War means oil costs three times more than it sh |
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| blade wrote: |
Do people still think it was a good idea to invade Iraq?
| Quote: |
Oil: A global crisis
The Iraq War means oil costs three times more than it should, says a leading expert. How are our lives going to change as we struggle to cope with the $200 barrel? Geoffrey Lean reports
Sunday, 25 May 2008
The invasion of Iraq by Britain and the US has trebled the price of oil, according to a leading expert, costing the world a staggering $6 trillion in higher energy prices alone.
The oil economist Dr Mamdouh Salameh, who advises both the World Bank and the UN Industrial Development Organisation (Unido), told The Independent on Sunday that the price of oil would now be no more than $40 a barrel, less than a third of the record $135 a barrel reached last week, if it had not been for the Iraq war.
He spoke after oil prices set a new record on 13 consecutive days over the past two weeks. They have now multiplied sixfold since 2002, compared with the fourfold increase of the 1973 and 1974 "oil shock" that ended the world's long postwar boom.
Goldman Sachs predicted last week that the price could rise to an unprecedented $200 a barrel over the next year, and the world is coming to terms with the idea that the age of cheap oil has ended, with far-reaching repercussions on their activities.
Dr Salameh, director of the UK-based Oil Market Consultancy Service, and an authority on Iraq's oil, said it is the only one of the world's biggest producing countries with enough reserves substantially to increase its flow.
Production in eight of the others � the US, Canada, Iran, Indonesia, Russia, Britain, Norway and Mexico � has peaked, he says, while China and Saudia Arabia, the remaining two, are nearing the point at of decline. Before the war, Saddam Hussein's regime pumped some 3.5 million barrels of oil a day, but this had now fallen to just two million barrels.
Dr Salameh told the all-party parliamentary group on peak oil last month that Iraq had offered the United States a deal, three years before the war, that would have opened up 10 new giant oil fields on "generous" terms in return for the lifting of sanctions. "This would certainly have prevented the steep rise of the oil price," he said. "But the US had a different idea. It planned to occupy Iraq and annex its oil."
Chris Skrebowski, the editor of Petroleum Review, said: "There are many ifs in the world oil market. This is a very big one, but there are others. If there had been a civil war in Iraq, even less oil would have been produced."
David Strahan: What happens next? The expert's view
At just under 86 million barrels per day, global oil production has, essentially, stagnated since 2005, despite soaring demand, suggesting that production has already reached its geological limits, or "peak oil".
Recession in the West may not provide relief on prices. There is increasing demand from countries such as China, Russia and the Opec countries, whose consumers are cushioned against rising prices by heavy subsidies. The future could unfold in a number of ways:
Oil price collapses
Fuel subsidies could suddenly be scrapped, dousing demand. Cost pressures have forced Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan to cut them, but China is hardly strapped for cash. Opec producers are under no pressure to abolish subsidies; as the oil price rises they get richer. Prospect: very unlikely.
Peace could break out in Iraq, the long-disputed oil law agreed, and international oil companies start work on the world's largest collection of untapped oil fields. Prospect: vanishingly unlikely.
Oil price stabilises or moderates
Deep recession in the West might cut oil consumption enough to offset growth in the developing world and Opec, or even engulf them too, softening prices. Prospect: unlikely in the short term.
Oil price soars
Russian oil output has gone into decline; Saudi Arabia has shelved plans to expand production capacity, and advisers to the Nigerian government predict its output will fall by 30 per cent by 2015. More news like this, expect oil at $200 a barrel. Prospect: likely.
Big oil producers will increasingly divert exports for home consumption. Opec, Russian and Mexican exports expected to fall, pushing oil to $200 by 2012. Prospect: highly likely.
The writer is author of 'The Last Oil Shock', John Murray, lastoilshock.com
Peak oil
After 150 years of growth, the oil age is beginning to come to an end. "Peak oil" is the common term for when production stops increasing and starts to decline. At that point what have been ever-expanding and cheap supplies of the resource on which all modern economies depend become scarcer and more expensive, with potentially devastating consequences.
Pessimists believe that production has passed its peak. Optimists say it may be 20 years or so away � which would give us some time to prepare � but are now muted. Last week the hitherto optimistic International Energy Agency admitted that it may have overestimated future capacity. Chris Skrebowski, editor of 'Petroleum Review' and once an optimist himself, believes that the world is now in "the foothills of peak oil". Prices may ease a bit over the next few years, but then the real crunch will come. The price then? "Pick a number!"
Travel
Oil provides 95 per cent of the energy used in transport, so this will be hit hard and soon. People are likely to go on using their cars, but airlines are expected to be the first to suffer. On Thursday, British Airways' chief executive Willie Walsh declared that the era of cheap flights was over, suggesting that those environmentalists who have made them their main target for combating climate change may have been wasting their breath.
At least three carriers have already gone bust this year. Last week, American Airlines said it was cutting routes, laying off staff, and charging US passengers $15 to check in a bag because of a $3bn rise in its fuel bills. Even Michael O'Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, says the oil price is "really hurting". On Thursday, Credit Suisse analysts said his company would slip into the red if oil prices rose just a little more, to $140 a barrel.
Cars
The world's biggest oil well, it is said, lies beneath Detroit. US vehicles get an average of only 25 miles per gallon. Dramatically improving this would do more to ease the oil crunch than any likely new discovery. But new measures recently approved by Congress would increase the average only to the 35mpg already being achieved by China. Europe does better, if not well enough, at 44mpg.
Rising fuel prices are already beginning to drive change. Sales of 4x4s are plummeting in both the US and Britain, and those of hybrids � which do 60mpg are soaring. As the price climbs further, manufacturers will unlock long-prepared plans for much more efficient vehicles. "Plug-in" hybrids, charged up with electricity overnight, save another 45 per cent in petrol consumption. Further down the line is the "hypercar" � made of tough, light plastic � which could cross the US on a single tankful.
Houses
All new houses in Britain will have to be zero carbon � burning no fossil fuels such as oil � by 2016, the Government announced, and housebuilders are struggling to meet the target. At present the standard can be reached only at great expense, but the industry is confident of bringing the cost down as mass production kicks in. It is even more important to adapt existing homes.
The key step is to super-insulate the house to make it as energy-efficient as possible � and only then to provide renewable energy sources. Solar water heaters, ground source heat pumps and boilers powered by wood pellets are favourites. Rooftop windmills do not work well enough yet. Photovoltaic panels, which get electricity from the sun, are expensive but their price should come down. Britain has lagged behind other countries. Soaring energy prices should shake things up.
Shopping
Effectively, almost everything is partially made of oil, and so is going to get more expensive. About 10 calories of oil are burned to produce each calorie of food in the US, and farming a single cow and getting it to market uses as much as driving from New York to Los Angeles. Some 630g of fuel is used to produce every gram of microchips.
The cult of local, seasonal produce will enter the mainstream, as everyone learns about food miles and a modern-day Dig for Victory grips gardeners � bad news for the farm workers overseas who provide 95 per cent of our fruit and half our vegetables. Trips to out-of-town supermarkets will seem extravagant, heralding a high street renaissance and a new surge in online grocery shopping, and soon we'll all be eating our own potatoes.
Third World
Poor countries and their peoples will be hit by a devastating double whammy as both their fuel and food prices increase. Last year, when oil cost only about half as much, countries from Nepal to Nicaragua were hit by fuel shortages. At least 25 of the 44 sub-Saharan nations are facing crippling electricity shortages.
As oil is used in agriculture, its increased cost will also drive up the price of food, making more and more people go hungry. Worse, expensive petrol is bound to increase the drive towards biofuels made from maize and other crops, which then brings the world's poorest people into competition with affluent motorists for grain � a contest they cannot win. Just one fill-up of a 4x4's tank with ethanol uses enough grain to feed one person for a year.
Emerging economies
China and India and other developing countries will help to drive up demand for oil and compete for scarce supplies. This has already helped to raise prices: demand for oil from Western countries has actually fallen over the past two years, but the emerging economies have more than made up the slack. And they have the money to do so.
Chinese and Indian consumers have so far been insulated from the effects of the price increase by heavy government subsidies, and their industrial revolutions and rapid growth are largely fuelled by oil. There is little sign that the growth in demand will slacken These countries are also likely to follow the time-honoured Western tradition of making deals with oil-exporting countries � and backing unpleasant regimes � to try to secure supplies.
Conflict
Last week. the embattled Gordon Brown � "incredibly focused" on oil, according to his spin-doctors � began playing the blame game. "It is a scandal," he said, "that 40 per cent of the oil is controlled by Opec and that their decisions can restrict the supply of oil to the rest of the world."
Someone should tell him that he should be blaming geology � or God � and that, as oil production peaks, Opec countries simply will not be able to pump more. But he is not alone; four US senators warned Saudi Arabia that if it did not step up the flow, the US might withdraw its military support.
There will be much more of this as supplies tighten. Three years ago, a US army report predicted oil would soon peak, and security risks increase. Expect oil wars. But, of course, we have already had one � in Iraq.>
Archie Bland
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/oil-a-global-crisis-834023.html
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I guess the part where he suggests that Saddam could be trusted throws the entire article into question.
Actually the reason for high oil is that China and India use more and that oil is getting harder to find.
In fact Iraqi oil production has more or less returned to pre war levels.
| Quote: |
Petrol prices 'due to overseas demand'
May 26, 2008 04:15pm
Article from: AAPFont size: + -
Send this article: Print Email
PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd today blamed soaring petrol prices on the international demand for oil and a lack of efficiency in global consumption.
Mr Rudd said the Federal Government would join those of other countries in attempting to influence oil-producing nation about oil supply.
The demand from China and India was placing extra pressure on petrol availability, Mr Rudd told parliament today.
"On the supply side, there are continuous problems in Nigeria, and it's only recently that supplies in Iraq after five years have started to catch up, after pre-war levels of oil production,'' he said.
Mr Rudd said the challenge faced by the government was to look at long-term global factors and immediate national and short-term cost pressures for families. |
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23759890-31037,00.html
Last edited by Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee on Mon May 26, 2008 10:44 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 10:43 pm Post subject: Re: The Iraq War means oil costs three times more than it sh |
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[quote="blade"]Do people still think it was a good idea to invade Iraq?
| Quote: |
| The invasion of Iraq by Britain and the US has trebled the price of oil, according to a leading expert, costing the world a staggering $6 trillion in higher energy prices alone. |
I'd like an explanation. How did the war increase the price of oil? George Soros and Warren Buffett say it is a classic bubble. The 'global pool of money' has retreated from the US consumer credit market and rested in the commodity markets, they say. Jim Rogers says it is demand, mostly from China and India, along with some supply issues. Peter Schiff and many economists believe much of it is due to a massive expansion in money supply + increased demand within a reality of production stagnating, or even declining. |
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blade
Joined: 30 Jun 2007
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| Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 10:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Gopher wrote: |
| blade wrote: |
| Do people still think it was a good idea to invade Iraq? |
I would like to see a list of posters on this message board who answer "yes."
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(1) Joo
(2) Mises
(3) ....? |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 10:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Mises? |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 11:00 pm Post subject: |
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| blade wrote: |
| Gopher wrote: |
| blade wrote: |
| Do people still think it was a good idea to invade Iraq? |
I would like to see a list of posters on this message board who answer "yes."
|
(1) Joo
(2) Mises
(3) ....? |
the US didn't invade Iraq to invade Iraq the US invaded Iraq to invade the middle east.
Bathists , Khomeni followers and Al Qaedists have been out to get the US for a long time. They need to give up their war. If they don't want to give up their war then anything and everything the US does to force them to is ok.
Taking down Saddam isn't the entire answer to the equation but was part of it.
9-11 showed that the middle east was a threat to the US and the mideast needs to change. |
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blade
Joined: 30 Jun 2007
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| Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 11:04 pm Post subject: |
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So just so we're clear. Do you think it was a good idea for the US to have invaded Iraq; Yes/No? |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 11:07 pm Post subject: |
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| blade wrote: |
So just so we're clear. Do you think it was a good idea for the US to have invaded Iraq; Yes/No? |
It was a good idea for the US to deal with the middle east.
Anyway Blade thinks it would have been a good idea to let Saddam go free since he was against sanctions and no fly zones.
I guess we could trust Saddam. 
By the way isn't it interesting that Blade says a conservative newspaper is is no good but a similarly biased news paper just the other way is okay.
Blade said before.
| Quote: |
| Joo, I take it your not the UK or Ireland because if you were you'd no what a sleezy piece of crap rag the telegraph is. |
but the equally biased independent is okay
By the way this the reason for high oil prices, not that politically motivated article in the independant.
| Quote: |
STO Shows Why Oil Isn't at $70
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
12/7/2007 9:02 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Jim Cramer
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
12/7/2007 9:02 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Jim Cramer Click Here for Your FREE Report
5 Strategies for Surviving Volatile Markets
StatoilHydro's (STO - commentary - Cramer's Take) pretty typical of why oil isn't at $70 or wherever the heck the bears think it should be by now.
That's because when you look through the company's numbers this morning, you are in shock that production fell for the year. Oh, there are all sorts of excuses for why -- lateness in drilling, some sort of ramp that didn't occur. But when oil is above $80, if you have spare supply you are going to get it to the market.
That's the story of this moment, supply. The North Sea fields, a mainstay for so long, are running dry with only the hardest-to-get)) oil still attainable to boost production.
The oil bears almost immediately say, "But all that matters is drilling more in areas that aren't nearly as tapped, like Saudi Arabia." I just disagree. Anyone who has spare capacity should be bringing it to market or selling oil forward, regardless of the so-called bid up of speculators who should have been proven wrong by now.
We just don't have enough.
Get used to seeing more stories like this one. When you are out of easy oil, you have shortfalls. And I expect many more shortfalls than new discoveries in the years ahead |
Last edited by Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee on Mon May 26, 2008 11:21 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 11:18 pm Post subject: |
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Because I raise questions with the idea that the war is a direct cause of the oil prices I therefore must support the war. That was the assumption.
I can on the one hand be against something while at the same time not agree that the event caused all of the bad it is said to cause.
No, I did not support the war.
I follow energy/commodity markets and the discussion of religiously. I see no reason why the Iraq conflict caused the increase in oil prices. It is 1) inflation 2) speculation 3) increased demand 4) decreasing supply, or the perception thereof. Maybe not in that order, but they are key. The war in Iraq influenced, slightly, #1. The OP isn't useful. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 12:48 am Post subject: |
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At 200 dollars all sorts of alternatives to oil make sense. The number stops there.
Peak oil or no peak oil. |
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Julius
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
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| Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 1:04 am Post subject: |
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| If it reduces the number of cars on Koreas roads i'm all for it. |
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blade
Joined: 30 Jun 2007
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| Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 1:43 am Post subject: |
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| Iraqi oil production is only now reaching prewar levels of production and yet people here have me believe that the invasion of Iraq has had no effect on the world price of oil. WTF? |
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