Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Ya-ta Boy]

As we all know from the Election of 2000, the only numbers that really count are the Electoral College numbers in November. Just for fun, I looked up the Red States and Blue States and their Electoral College clout and figured up what it means to Obama and McCain at this point.

Blue Democratic States in the last 4 elections:
1. Maine 4 EV
2. Mass. 12 EV
3. Vermont 3 EV
4. Rhode Island 4 EV
5. Conn. 7 EV
6. New York 31 EV
7. Pennsylvania 21 EV
8. Maryland 10 EV
9. Delaware 3 EV
**10. Michigan 17 EV
**11. Wisconsin 10 EV
12. Illinois 21 EV
13. Minnesota 10 EV
14. Washington 11 EV
15. Oregon 7 EV
16. California 55 EV
17. Hawaii 4 EV
18. DC 3 EV
19. New Jersey 15 EV

If these states continue their trend over the last 4 presidential elections, Obama would carry them and have 221 of the 270 Electoral Votes he needs to win. **Michigan: not included in the total because Real Clear Politics (RCP) has Obama up by only 0.6%. **Wisconsin is not included because he is up by only 1.6% according to RCP. Obama needs 49 more votes.


Red Republican States in 4 of the last 4:
**20. Virginia 13 EV
21. North Carolina 15 EV
22. South Carolina 8 EV
23. Alabama 9 EV
24. Mississippi 6 EV
25. Indiana 11 EV
26. North Dakota 3 EV
27. South Dakota 3 EV
28. Nebraska 5 EV
29. Kansas 6 EV
30. Oklahoma 7 EV
31. Texas 34 EV
32. Wyoming 3 EV
33. Idaho 4 EV
34. Utah 5 EV
35. Alaska 3 EV

The total Electoral Votes for the states above that are �safe� for McCain only add up to 122, leaving him 148 votes short. **Virginia�s 13 are not included because RCP has McCain up by only 1.6%.

So where can the candidates pick up the necessary votes?

Obama can look at:
States that went Democratic in 3 of the last 4 elections:
36. New Hampshire 4 EV (RCP doesn�t give an average and it looks too close to call)
37. Iowa 7 EV (Obama is up 5.6%, enough to put Iowa in his column.)
38. New Mexico 5 EV (RCP doesn�t give an average, so too close to call.)


McCain can look at:
States that went Red in 3 of the last 4:
39. Georgia 15 EV (McCain up by 13.7%, so add Georgia.)
40. Florida 27 EV (McCain up by 8.6%, so add Florida)
41. Montana 3 EV (RCP reports McCain up by 8%)
42. Colorado 9 EV (RCP doesn�t have an average, but Obama is up by 6%+ in 4 of 5 polls)
43. Arizona 10 EV (no information, but it�s McCain�s home state)

Obama: 221 + 7 from Iowa and 9 from Colorado = 237
McCain: 122 + 15 from Georgia, 27 from Florida, 10 from Arizona and 3 from Montana = 177

Obama still needs 33 Electoral Votes and McCain still needs 93.

This leaves the States that split 2-2 in the last 4 elections:
44. Ohio 20 EV (Obama by 1.3%--too close to call)
45. West Virginia 5 EV (no information)
46. Kentucky 8 EV (no information)
47. Tennessee 11 EV (no information)
48. Missouri 11 EV (no average given, but it looks safe for McCain)
49. Arkansas 6 EV (Arkansas voted Democratic when B. Clinton was running. I�d say call it for McCain)
50. Louisiana 9 EV (no information)
51. Nevada 5 EV (no average given, and too close to call)

I�d add Missouri/Arkansas�s 17 to McCain�s for a total of 194, only 76 short.

Summary:
Obama @ 237 electoral votes, 33 short.
McCain @ 194 electoral votes, 76 short.

If people see head-to-head polls that would change these numbers, it would be helpful to post them. (I'm considering anything within 3% too close to call.) The most important states to watch would be Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico and the states that split 2-2 minus Missouri and Arkansas.)

[Nowhere Man]

[Ya-ta Boy]

You're right. There should be 538 total.

I added numbers to the states/DC to make sure I didn't miss someone and that works out.

I'll double check the Electoral Votes each state gets. Maybe I short-changed someone.

[hogwonguy1979]

add 3 to Obama's total since he'll win DC by a huge margin

[Nowhere Man]

DC was already listed.

[Ya-ta Boy]

MYSTERY SOLVED


Arizona has 10 Electoral Votes, not the 7 that I inadvertantly copied from the wrong column on the site I was using.

The OP has been corrected.

NOW, if anyone sees something that would warrant assigning a state to a candidate, please post.

[Ya-ta Boy]

Has anyone seen any numbers from Louisiana? Just how angry are they at Bush for Katrina and is that carrying over to McCain? That would be 9 more electoral votes for Obama.

[mises]

So, should we assume then that Obama is right now likely the next president?

[Nowhere Man]

That's an interesting question. Is a 5% lead solid enough to merit calling the state? Dunno. I haven't ever paid attention to this before, so it should be interesting to see how it plays out.

I think it's an interesting thread idea.

And at the end I can whinge about the electoral college.

[Ya-ta Boy]

[Kuros]

[Milwaukiedave]

Another take on it:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass

His current prediction:

Obama 281
McCain 257

(note: he updates his predictions every couple of days)

538.com

Obama 272.3
McCain 265.7

EV.com

Obama 266
McCain 248
Undec 24

[Ya-ta Boy]

I saw on RCP today that a poll says McCain is up by 8% in Montana, so I added those in the OP.


Thanks for the information MD. I knew I couldn't be the only one who understood the role the EC plays.

[Nowhere Man]

I'm having trouble finding what the non-battleground states are polling.

Does RCP have a place on their site for every state?

For example, let's say Vermont. We all know how that's gonna go, but where are the percentages on that?

Similarly, how about polls that list Barr and Nader?

[Ya-ta Boy]

I haven't found a place on RCP that has all the states. There is a section there for 'Battleground States' but the list is odd. For example, Georgia is on the list but McCain has something like a 15% lead. Not much of a battle if you ask me.

I'd also like to see a site that has polls for each state. If you run across one, please post.