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In A Nutshell, Why The Won Is Falling
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squexx



Joined: 24 Mar 2008
Location: Korea

PostPosted: Mon May 26, 2008 4:55 pm    Post subject: In A Nutshell, Why The Won Is Falling Reply with quote

From March 2008, a good explanation about what is happening with the won:

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/mar2008/gb20080328_528490.htm

...................."So why is the Korean currency defying the trend of major currencies gaining strength against the dollar? The won's decline was touched off by foreign investors dumping Korean shares and bonds to secure liquidity in the face of a global credit crunch. Economist Lee Yoonsok at Korea Institute of Finance, a Seoul think tank, points out that Korea remains one of the most liquid securities markets among emerging economies, making it an easy target for foreign investors trying to secure cash in a hurry.

Those foreign investors who unloaded Korean shares sold the won to bring dollars back home. Overseas investors sold about $13 billion worth of Korean stocks so far this year, forcing the benchmark Kospi index to slide 12%. A 32% gain in the Kospi last year also allowed foreigners to take profits as they sought to secure cash.

Spurring the won's loss was the unwinding of the yen carry trade, where investors borrowed yen to put the money in higher-yielding countries such as Korea, and the reversal of currency hedging by Korean funds that had built won positions after investing in overseas stocks. As the world's equity markets are sold off, these hedges are also being unwound, according to a Morgan Stanley (MS) research report last week.
Higher Oil Prices Creates Trade Imbalance

Another driver of the won's decline: Korea's worsening current account balance, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services. The Seoul government expects Korea, which depends wholly on imports for its oil needs, to post a current account deficit of $7 billion this year against a surplus of $5.9 billion in 2007. "Given the tumult in the global financial market and high oil and commodity prices, the won won't gain strength any time soon," says Park at Hangaram Investment..........."
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Tue May 27, 2008 3:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's a useful article. Thanks.

I'm hoping my fund manager knows which stocks to buy at this low point so when the KOSPI regains those 32% that I profit by it. Very Happy He did over the last two years, so I don't think I have to worry.
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Real Reality



Joined: 10 Jan 2003
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Wed May 28, 2008 3:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Does this message belong in the General Discussion Forum?
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ernie



Joined: 05 Aug 2006
Location: asdfghjk

PostPosted: Wed May 28, 2008 3:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

can't live in korea without won!
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Thu May 29, 2008 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is a good article. *bump*
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hellofaniceguy



Joined: 10 Jan 2003
Location: On your computer screen!

PostPosted: Fri May 30, 2008 2:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think part of the reason has to do with the koreans' attitudes....why would any one, business, or country want to invest in korea with all the protesting and anti this, anti that attitude?
They shoot themselves in the foot.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri May 30, 2008 3:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
with all the protesting and anti this, anti that attitude?


Don't all healthy democracies have this?
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saw6436



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Daejeon, ROK

PostPosted: Fri May 30, 2008 5:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, healthy Democracies do. But, we are talking about Corea here. Most Democracies think with their laws. Corea thinks with its ignorance.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri May 30, 2008 2:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Both romanticizing your home country and looking cynically at Korea are inaccurate.
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Cheonmunka



Joined: 04 Jun 2004

PostPosted: Fri May 30, 2008 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

These days resource commodities are in, value addeds are a dime a dozen, every developing country has the technique or is gaining it to mass manufacture. Korea has a lot of competition now.

I was watching the telly last night and there was a major segment about the closures of small manufacturers in Korea - figures like 20% less small businesses than last year. Stats like that are a bit shocking.

I wonder if the economy's going to recede?
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squexx



Joined: 24 Mar 2008
Location: Korea

PostPosted: Sat May 31, 2008 3:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cheonmunka wrote:
These days resource commodities are in, value addeds are a dime a dozen, every developing country has the technique or is gaining it to mass manufacture. Korea has a lot of competition now.

I was watching the telly last night and there was a major segment about the closures of small manufacturers in Korea - figures like 20% less small businesses than last year. Stats like that are a bit shocking.

I wonder if the economy's going to recede?


Yes, we are in for a 1997 style crash in a matter of months. I think after the Olympics all the crap going on will finally crash. Fall and early Winter is after the 08 Chinese Olympics. The big pressure to have a successful Olympics will be past, and China may go ahead and attempt to really fight their 10% inflation.

They really would like to fight the food inflation, in particular, but since the world food stocks have to be renewed in totality each year, rather than drawing on big reserves, like say oil, China and the other countries may find that there simply is not enough food grown in 08 to combat the grain shortages

Inflation in the world is pushing 10%. That is a net drain on people's and companies budgets. This story will really hit in Summer with gas prices. By Fall, we can see a significant reaction in markets.

The Web Bot project also predicts a stock market crash for this fall. This is a systematic study by the HalfPastHuman.com folks of hundreds of millions of web pages daily. It's done by web bots that scour the internet for what people are talking about. They state that the Fall will be bad for the commodity and stock markets. That does not mean that must happen, but given all the things going on in the world economy these days, it probably will..........sooner or later, anyway.
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bassexpander



Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.

PostPosted: Sat May 31, 2008 5:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Who are these socks that come on here spewing the end of life as we know it?
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squexx



Joined: 24 Mar 2008
Location: Korea

PostPosted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 7:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bassexpander wrote:
Who are these socks that come on here spewing the end of life as we know it?


One good thing is that when the crash comes in a few months, many of the asshole foreigners will leave like rats leaving a ship. Just like in 1997. Bassexpander is a good example of the type of asshole who I will be happy to see go. The crash will happen, and know-it-all punks like you will fly out like the fairy lightweights they are.Rolling Eyes

By Christmas, the won will have shrunk to just a percentage of what it is now. In the next few week, the won will head down to around 1020, from 1040 = $1, but it will fluxuate all summer more than usual. The summer financial duldrums don't apply this year.
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mole



Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Act III

PostPosted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 12:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

squexx wrote:

One good thing is that when the crash comes in a few months, many of the asshole foreigners will leave like rats leaving a ship. Just like in 1997....

That was quite the exodus, wasn't it.
Korea's probably better equipped for what's to come than the US.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 1:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
In the next few week, the won will head down to around 1020, from 1040 = $1,


That will mean the Won is getting stronger.
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