Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Zenas]

Many have known the crash was coming for many months. However, nothing much was said about it until recently in the main stream controlled media. In fact, the problems were said to be mostly behind us and that there might be a 'mild downturn' and a 'few bumps in the road,' but all would be well in time. However, the situation is, it appears, getting so bad, that some insiders feel the need to issue warnings. Here are two of those warnings:

RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert

The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.

"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.

http://tinyurl.com/5ghu9v
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Morgan Stanley warns of 'catastrophic event' as ECB fights Federal Reserve

"............[T]he point of maximum stress could occur in coming months if the ECB carries out the threat this month by Jean-Claude Trichet to raise rates. It will be worse yet - for Europe - if the Fed backs away from expected tightening. "This could trigger another 'catastrophic event,' warned Morgan Stanley.

http://tinyurl.com/5z6xxf

Bankers are conservative by nature, until recently that is, when they started dealing in complicated financial instruments - called 'weapons of mass destruction" by Buffet - like addicted gamblers, causing the sub prime contagion to spread around the world and which has yet, to see its end. That, on top of the housing and mortgage bubble, which also has yet to see its finish line.

And this prediction - a coming crash | catastrophic event - is from those who really shouldn't be talking. I'll have more to post here from time to time from others who have been predicting this crash for some time. People like Bob Chapman, Mohammad Rafeeq, Jim Rogers and Peter Schiff, along with some comments as to what chain of events brought us to this point.

Also, some comments as to why Korea might be a good place to be to wait out the coming crash.

[Ya-ta Boy]

Korea Faces Specter of Multi-Nation Financial Meltdown


There are warning signs of a synchronous financial crisis that could affect about a dozen countries, including the Baltic states, Vietnam, India, the Philippines, Indonesia and Argentina. These nations are seen as on the verge of slipping into a foreign currency crisis, with their economic indices worse than Korea's when it was socked by the financial crisis of 1997.

Korea will not be safe from the impacts of a financial crisis in emerging economies in Eastern Europe, Asia and South America. The Korean economy is managing to survive sluggish domestic consumption thanks to a continuous growth in exports to these regions.

...Korea will suffer an outflow of foreign capital as well as falling exports if the global economy is hit by simultaneous financial crises from the countries in question, and he called for preemptive measures. An official at the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said that the government is keeping a close eye as situations develop in worrisome countries.

http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200806/200806180012.html

The good news is that the predictions about this particular crash said it would start last winter.

[Zenas]

Funny, the article is dated "Updated Jun.18,2008 08:00 KST"

Things, I've found, over my 30 years of following economic events, always take longer than expected.

Perhaps the 'crash' for Korea started last fall as this graph of the KRW/CHF shows:




My guess is, the Swiss Franc is building a foundation or support level from which to move higher in the coming months.
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Credit crunch could end up costing $1 trillion

NEW YORK - There are new signs that the worst of the global credit crisis is yet to come, and that banks and brokerages caught up in the market turmoil may lose $1 trillion by the time it has passed.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25251212/

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The financial Titanic has already hit the iceberg. That happened when the housing bubble in the States hit the peak, June 2005.

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[Zenas]

Faster Inflation May Unleash `Financial Tsunami'

`Whether it is anecdotal or statistical evidence, I see inflation everywhere, and this is where the financial tsunami cometh,'' Sedacca wrote in a report published yesterday. `

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8j2MuFdqA3s&refer=home

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[mindmetoo]

Since you know that crash is coming, don't you think being in Korea is probably a bad, bad place to be? What are you doing to prepare?

[bacasper]

[mindmetoo]

[Zenas]

[mises]

For reference sake, what are your financial/economic credentials?

[Zenas]

I can read and understand what I read, connect the dots and think critically.

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[mises]

So,,, none?

When you post articles about a "catastrophe" you have to understand who is making those claims. A catastrophe for MS is from their perspective as a vulnerable primary dealer with billions of tier three assets on their books. Several big primary dealers are at risk of going broke. This does not mean then that the average American will be wearing a burlap sack. Brokers have been going under since they've existed.

When RBS warns of a credit crash they are also worried about the garbage on their books. When they speak of a crash they don't mean economic crash, where the economy comes to a halt, but a "credit crash" which will dry up their gravy train. There are billions upon billions of dollars on those balance sheets that will simply evaporate. Lending will be more scarce and economies will fall into recession. Once the junk is cleaned out the economy will move forward.

You have to look at the context of who is making dire claims.

I would even argue that there is an acute risk of the United States experiencing a crises similar to the one that hit Asia in '97. Even that isn't the end of the world, especially when one looks at how quickly and thoroughly the Tigers recovered.

There is no cabal of Jews running the world, pulling the purse strings of the Federal Reserve. The Fed's actions are perfectly reasonable, though harmful, from the perspective of the Bretton Woods 2 system of a global dollar standard. A Nash Equilibrium with China and the Arab nations has developed and we are experiencing the shock of that system starting to fall apart. The result will be inflation in America (tempered by the evaporation of billions in credit) and the United States not being able to run massive deficits and current account/balance of trade deficits.

[Zenas]

No one is forcing you to accept my view. Won't be long and we'll know who was more accurate. I've stated my view, you yours.

My view is the Perfect Economic Storm is brewing on the horizon for a depression the likes of which we have never seen. All the ingredients are in place and have been simmering in the cauldron of globalization for decades.
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Took ten years for Thailand to recover from 1997. 10 years is quick?
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[mises]

The ingredients are? And for bonus points, what do you see that independent financial analysts don't see.

[Zenas]

[mises]

1 What are the ingredients?

2 Which economists can you find to support this idea of a massive global depression? Or, do you think yourself uniquely able?