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Zenas
Joined: 17 May 2008
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 Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 3:52 pm Post subject: |
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| This should be safe for them since the demand for English will remain high, and might even intensify. (Is that even possible?) |
Hard to tell, isn't it? Depends on how hard Korea gets hit.
Posco just increased its prices:
Heavy Industries Joining Stampede to Raise Prices Posco and Dow Chemical Follow 'Global Trend'
"Global prices for steel, a basic building commodity, also jumped after Posco of South Korea, one of the world's largest steel producers, said Tuesday that it was raising prices by more than 20 percent after the global miner Rio Tinto Group agreed with the biggest Chinese steel maker, Baosteel, to raise its prices by as much as 97 percent for Australian iron ore."
http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1449166/heavy_industries_joining_stampede_to_raise_prices_posco_and_dow/
notice the word "stampede" and the price rise of almost 100% for a basic commodity - iron ore, from one mining company. More are sure to follow.
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| I thought you were predicting economic Armageddon, not stagflation? |
Can't stagflation precede Armageddon?
Another difference between the Great Depression is that then there was deflation, not inflation. Prices went down not up. The supply was short and choice limited, but no increase in basic commodities. this time around inflation is going to do both limit supply and cause prices to rise beyond the reach of many. Credit cards are being used to buy necessities and cc defaults are on the rise.
American Express Says Late Card Payments Increasing
``Business conditions continue to weaken in the U.S. and so far this month we have seen credit indicators deteriorate beyond our expectations.'
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5XZ_dtNNtPc&refer=home
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| Are you in the United States? I'm sure not seeing 15% at all. Even shadowstats is only claiming 11%. |
In a previous post you admitted perhaps 8%. Shadowstats comes closer to my estimate of 15% with 12%.
Here are some actual figures:
Eggs, Grade A Doz 1.504 1.930 28.32%
Milk, Fresh Gal 3.259 3.760 15.37%
Cheddar Cheese Lb 3.976 4.397 10.59%
Barley Bu $3.12 $4.76 52.56%
Beans, Dry Edible Cwt $3.08 $5.06 64.29%
Corn Bu $3.49 $5.12 46.70%
Cotton Lb $0.44 $0.61 37.95%
Flaxseed Bu $7.08 $16.60 134.46%
Hay Ton $138.00 $166.00 20.29%
Lentils Cwt $13.20 $32.70 147.73%
Oats Bu $2.49 $3.46 38.96%
Peanuts Lb $0.18 $0.20 12.29%
Peas, Dry Edible Cwt $10.10 $16.40 62.38%
Potatoes Cwt $7.95 $9.21 15.85%
Rice, Rough Cwt $10.00 $15.00 50.00%
Sorghum Cwt $6.49 $9.18 41.45%
Soybeans Bu $7.12 $12.30 72.75%
Sunflower Cwt $16.60 $27.40 65.06%
Wheat Bu $4.88 $8.80 80.33%
Apples Lb $0.27 $0.34 26.02%
Grapefruit Box $4.49 $5.12 14.03%
Lemons Box $8.14 $20.77 155.16%
Lettuce Cwt $13.60 $16.80 23.53%
Onions Cwt $24.20 $31.70 30.99%
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/Content.asp?ContentID=230814
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Bob Chapman at International Forecaster says this:
"Our inflation is quickly approaching the peaks of 1980-1981 of around 14% to 15%, with about two percent left to go."
http://theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/Consumer_Confidence_At_All_Time_Low
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 8:39 pm Post subject: |
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Even if the we accept the figure of 15%, which I don't, the collapse will look like the mid-80's??
A collapse is an end to economic transactions using the official currency and significantly decreased standards of living. We aren't anywhere near that. |
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Bigfeet
Joined: 29 May 2008
Location: Grrrrr.....
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 8:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Education is usually recession-proof. |
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Zenas
Joined: 17 May 2008
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 11:34 pm Post subject: |
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| the collapse will look like the mid-80's?? |
No. Chapman is talking about the inflation of the late 1970s, not a collapse like the 1980s. Did you read Chapman's entire article?
Chapman is 80 years old and has been in the brokers / commodities / gold / silver business all his life. People pay to read his newsletter.
He's lived through the 1970s 1980s as I did. The same thing is forming today, the difference is this time the Fed can't raise interest rates like Volker did in 1980 to break inflation.
This time inflation is going to keep going and going and going. Hyperinflation. And the US is in debt so far it can't be repaid. The Fed is monetizing the debt. Everyone knows that now, except people like you it appears.
And yes, the currency will be replaced. The dollar will end up worthless.
Toilet paper.
If we could post images here, I could show you using the charts.
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 12:07 am Post subject: |
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During the depression of the thirties unemployment was 10%. Some people got hit hard. Still, life turned over sufficiently for most people.
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In the US it was much higher. Up around 30% at one point. And that was at a time when we didn't have a social safety net of any kind.
English education in Korea is not entirely recession proof. In the winter of '97 thousands and thousands of Koreans studying overseas had to come home because their families could not afford to send them money. The exchange rate approached W2000 to the US$. Many of the weaker hakwons shut down.
The teachers in public schools, as employees of the government, should be secure. Parents will still want their kids to get that education and with the passion of this country for English, I can't see the government cutting foreign English teachers. Could be wrong on that, though. |
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Zenas
Joined: 17 May 2008
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| Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 2:36 am Post subject: |
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| Could be wrong on that, though. |
Could be right too. Makes sense. Gonna depend on the severity of the economic hit they take. Many are calling for world wide depression this time around, thanks to the spread of gobalization.
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 2:43 am Post subject: |
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| Zenas wrote: |
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| Could be wrong on that, though. |
Could be right too. Makes sense. Gonna depend on the severity of the economic hit they take. Many are calling for world wide depression this time around, thanks to the spread of gobalization.
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Bet against Zenas with your investments and make money. Not joking. |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 2:51 am Post subject: |
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| Economists have predicted 10 of the last 3 recessions. End of story. |
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Zenas
Joined: 17 May 2008
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 1:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Economists have predicted 10 of the last 3 recessions. End of story. |
I swear I've been reading doom and gloom predictions at least once a month since the 70's. There is always cause for concern, but not hysteria. |
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Zenas
Joined: 17 May 2008
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| Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 2:00 pm Post subject: |
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Credit crunch forcing US middle classes to live in their cars
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/26/usa.creditcrunch
"I see myself as a casualty of a perfect storm," he said. "The people sleeping at the [car parks] are ... just like me. They come from normal, everyday homes. I think a lot of people in this country don't realise that they, too, are a couple of pay cheques away from destitution."
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Zenas
Joined: 17 May 2008
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mole
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Act III
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 7:13 pm Post subject: |
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I'm all with Zenas here.
Here's one for the Doomsdayists AND the Conspiracy Theorists.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1214492700.php
Near the bottom:
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Here are my personal thoughts on what to expect:
1) Bullion will be king. The more� the better. Keep it out of the banking system.
2) Gold may rise above $60,000/oz at the first shot�overnight.
3) Silver may rise much higher and faster due to its industrial and monetary components
4) Banks will print money to buy gold
5) Sellers will disappear at any price
6) Comex, LME, GLD, SLV etc will all default and the metal inventories will stay in the countries they currently reside.
7) Expect to lose everything held by a bank.
 Expect EVERY country to nationalize their gold and silver mines�.NO EXCEPTIONS!
9) Hang onto your house and your mortgage (don�t pay it off until after the collapse)
10) Stay close to home over the next few months.
11) Have a plan if there is a system melt down (ask your friends and family to have a plan also)
12) Have enough cash (new bills only) to last a few months
13) Have enough food and water to last a few months
14) Although I hate this one�.get a gun to protect your family in case of civil unrest.
I know�sounds like �doom and gloom� but nobody knows how this will all go down and I�d rather be prepared than dazed and confused. |
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Zenas
Joined: 17 May 2008
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| Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 1:58 pm Post subject: |
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South Korea Manufacturer Confidence Falls to Three-Year Low
By William Sim
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- South Korean manufacturers' confidence fell to the lowest in three years as energy and commodity costs squeeze profits amid a global economic slowdown.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a90aKy.7O7tA&refer=home
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Bank of Korea Forecasts Fastest Inflation in a Decade
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQgs5z8ddlS0&refer=home
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Broad Says U.S. Economy in Worst Recession Since World War II
July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor Eli Broad said the U.S. economy is in the `worst period' of his adult life as a housing market recovery remains ``several years'' away.
"This is worse than any recession we've had since World War II,'' Broad, 75, said in an interview yesterday. Broad, the founder of homebuilder KB Home, said the U.S. should avoid a depression on the scale of the 1930s because the country now has sufficient ``safety nets.''
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those 'safety nets' involve the printing of even more worthless dollars.
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isak
Joined: 14 May 2008
Location: South Korea?
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| Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 6:32 am Post subject: |
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| I read through all of this, and some of the links before I remembered I really, really hate macro econ. |
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