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Strong Productivity Defies Trend

 
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee



Joined: 25 May 2003

PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 5:19 pm    Post subject: Strong Productivity Defies Trend Reply with quote

Quote:

Strong Productivity Defies Trend
And Gives Fed Room to Maneuver
By BRIAN BLACKSTONE
August 4, 2008

Recessions don't usually look like this, at least when it comes to productivity.

In the six U.S. recessions since 1970, worker productivity, or output per hour, grew a sluggish 0.8%, on average. But since the end of last year, even amid economic weakness, productivity is estimated to have grown an average 2.5% at an annual rate.

That defies productivity's usual behavior of going "up in good times and down in bad times," says Georgia State University forecaster Rajeev Dhawan.

Productivity's path isn't just an academic debate. That productivity is staying strong even in bad times has important implications for economic growth, inflation, employment and, ultimately, living standards. For example, strong productivity growth, by countering inflation pressures from energy and commodities, allows the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rates lower than it otherwise might, helping it stoke the economy.

But "it's a bit of a two-edged sword," said Chris Varvares of Macroeconomic Advisers, since efficiency gains could mean that companies can get by with fewer workers, exacerbating unemployment in the short run.

Some economists say the current healthy growth in productivity reflects a shift in the economy from less productive domestic sectors like home building and into exporting industries, which tend to be highly efficient. That shift has been aided by the weak dollar, which has made U.S. exports more competitive.

"It's a compositional story," said Dale Jorgenson, a productivity expert at Harvard University in Cambridge, Mass. Productivity, he explained, is "languid" in construction, so the decline of building as a share of the economy in recent quarters "is certainly going to be positive for productivity" on average.

Whatever its cause, the Fed has taken note of the strong growth. "I think it's very striking that even during all this uproar...U.S. labor productivity has continued to grow faster than almost any other industrial country, and it just shows how strong this economy is," Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in recent congressional testimony.



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121779042940308055.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That just underscores that the crisis is systemic. Its the financial sector who's productivity gains have been so questionable (can't find a link).

I also wonder just how much the demographics are coming into play. The Baby Boomers were hedging their retirement funds on continued and unsustainable increases in housing prices. Lots of young people were complaining just how hard it was to live (especially on the East Coast) in their communities and decided to live with their parents.

But, there are still lots of reasons for a depression that we need not be surprised that it has occurred despite productivity gains.
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sojourner1



Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Location: Where meggi swim and 2 wheeled tractors go sput put chug alugg pug pug

PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 6:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It could have to do with people doing more work while at work due to many positions being eliminated. I've seen it where I did 2 or 3 peoples jobs when downsizing and other cost cutting measures are implemented by company managers. Yes, they're paying the same or less while asking people to do more work and take on more responsibility. These days, you might be paid only $8/hour to run a multimillion dollar sales floor, manage 2 to 6 employees, get only $3 commission per each new credit account you open, and be responsible for profit and loss of the the store. They don't care if you have an education or not, they just care if you're willing to bend over backwards for them. But for what? Your struggle for survival in paying your bills and avoiding homelessness. This fear factor is the motivating factor, not rising to success through increasing productivity. That's what greedy employers are capitalizing on these days. Business and economics is sick shite these days.

What goes up must eventually come down...
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Bigfeet



Joined: 29 May 2008
Location: Grrrrr.....

PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Productivity has been going up in the 90s through now mainly because of the outsourcing of work.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 7:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bigfeet wrote:
Productivity has been going up in the 90s through now mainly because of the outsourcing of work.


Source?

Joo's source wrote:
U.S. labor productivity has continued to grow faster than almost any other industrial country
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Bigfeet



Joined: 29 May 2008
Location: Grrrrr.....

PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 7:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Source? Common sense. Razz
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sojourner1



Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Location: Where meggi swim and 2 wheeled tractors go sput put chug alugg pug pug

PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 7:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also if productivity is measured in dollar terms, which it is, then the cooked financial markets as well as outsourcing can better explain the larger statistics. It doesn't mean physical productivity is increasing like on a job, it means someone is making more money in the markets. Someone such as investors and executives. They like to report that all is well when it's not. They won't ever tell the truth about anything until they see their dollars worth nothing in the event of a bank and economic system collapse. The government is trying to prevent this from happening right now, but we've only seen the beginning as the government can only go so far and does not have enough money to cover all losses such as through the FDIC. It is true that government is being tooled and engineered for the purpose of rich speculators manipulating the markets. Who will lose? Those who have to work for a living.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 8:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bigfeet wrote:
Source? Common sense. Razz


Eh. Well, I'm interested in the answer to this question, so I did a quick google scan.

Here's a report from two and a half years ago.

Quote:
The times of extraordinarily high U.S. labor productivity growth rates are over, at least for now, according to a report released today by The Conference Board

Though still healthy compared with many other developed nations, the productivity growth rate slumped to 1.8% in 2005 in the United States, down from 3% in 2004.

"The U.S. performance is still good compared to Europe," says Bart van Ark, Director of The Conference Board international economic research program and co-author of the report with The Conference Board Economists Catherine Guillemineau and Robert McGuckin. "What is striking in these new numbers is the sustained productivity acceleration in the emerging markets of Central and Eastern Europe and Asia. In fact, economies such as China and Poland are accelerating to around 8%."

The Conference Board is one of the few providers of comprehensive worldwide measures of labor productivity, which is a powerful indicator of economic efficiency. Labor productivity, which measures the amount of output obtained for each hour of work, determines a nation's living standards (measured by per capita income). The more hours people work and the higher the level of productivity, the higher is per capita income.

Most countries in the developed world (North America, Europe and developed Asia) experienced a slowdown in productivity growth rates in 2005, with growth rates in the 1.5% to 2% range. Compared to the U.S., productivity was about the same in Japan (1.9%), but much worse for the average of the EU-15 (0.5%).


So it appears that of January, 2006, your assessment is spot on. Its productivity in the emerging markets that were soaring.

But, look here to a report from the first quarter of 2008.

Quote:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor today
reported revised productivity data--as measured by output per hour of all
persons--for the first quarter of 2008. The revised seasonally adjusted
annual rates of productivity change in the first quarter were:

2.4 percent in the business sector and
2.6 percent in the nonfarm business sector.

In both sectors, the first-quarter productivity gains were greater than the
preliminary estimates reported on May 7, due primarily to upward revisions to
output growth.

In manufacturing, the revised productivity changes in the first quarter
were:
3.6 percent in manufacturing,
2.6 percent in durable goods manufacturing, and
5.7 percent in nondurable goods manufacturing.


Quote:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table A. Productivity and costs: Revised first-quarter 2008 measures
(Seasonally adjusted annual rates)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1:Productivity 2:Output 3:Hours 4:Hourly compensation 5:Hourly real compensation 6:Costs
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change from preceding quarter

Business 2.4 0.6 -1.7 4.8 0.4 2.3
Nonfarm business 2.6 0.7 -1.8 4.9 0.6 2.2
Manufacturing 3.6 -1.2 -4.7 7.9 3.5 4.2
Durable 2.6 -0.9 -3.4 7.5 3.1 4.8
Nondurable 5.7 -1.6 -6.9 8.5 4.0 2.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change from same quarter a year ago

Business 3.4 2.7 -0.7 4.1 -0.1 0.7
Nonfarm business 3.3 2.7 -0.6 4.0 -0.1 0.7
Manufacturing 4.0 1.9 -2.1 3.8 -0.3 -0.2
Durable 5.5 3.5 -1.9 3.7 -0.5 -1.8
Nondurable 2.5 0.0 -2.4 4.2 0.0 1.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Note the last figure challenges sojourner's claim that Output is being raised because more hours are worked. Quite to the contrary, on a macro-level in the U.S., productivity increases are allowing output to stay stable as hours worked decrease!
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Bigfeet



Joined: 29 May 2008
Location: Grrrrr.....

PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 8:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ok, I've been looking stuff up. Really, I've been wondering about this for years. Especially why productivity have been so high in the 90s through now? The business industry and the federal government likes to puff you up by claiming that workers have been working "harder and smarter" blah blah blah. I don't think it's a coincident that it started going up just when the US started heavily outsourcing and offshoring work.

What started me wondering about this is that I used to work in the IT industry. After a few years it started dawning on me that the best service IT can render a company is to cut headcounts. So all the programs and services I've been implementing is a way to either reduce headcounts or cause it to grow slower than usal. So this is one way to increase worker productivity.

Here's an interesting report I just found:

"While economic theory holds that improvement in a population�s standard of living is directly tied to its productivity growth, one of the great puzzles of the American economy in recent years has been the fact that large productivity gains have not broadly benefited workers in
the form of higher wages (Dew-Becker and Gordon 2005, Yellen 2006). A better understanding of what our productivity statistics actually measure potentially provides some answers to this puzzle. Although a number of economists have suggested that offshoring may partly explain
why many Americans have not enjoyed real wage gains during this period of rapid productivity growth, a contribution of this paper is to suggest a direct link between productivity measurement,
offshoring, and inequality. It is possible that because of poor measurement of imported intermediate inputs, especially services, productivity measures are inflated. Moreover, even when offshored materials and services inputs are accurately measured, productivity improvements that result from offshoring may largely measure cost savings, not improvements to output per hour worked by American labor. Productivity trends may be an indicator not of how productive American workers are compared to foreign workers, but rather of how cost-uncompetitive many are vis-�-vis foreign labor. Although the productivity numbers may capture some net gains to the American economy from trade, there is no reason to believe that these
gains will be broadly shared among workers. The very process of offshoring to cheap foreign labor places downward pressure on many domestic workers� wages and simultaneously increases measured productivity through cost savings."

http://www.upjohninst.org/publications/wp/06-130.pdf
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