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mithridates

Joined: 03 Mar 2003 Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 7:55 am Post subject: National Interest: Make a Deal with Iran |
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I agree, and I would also add that Turkey is cooperating a lot on energy deals with Iran anyway so there's no way to contain them in the first place.
http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=19660
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OPEC president Chakib Khelil has repeatedly noted that one of the factors keeping oil prices higher than they ought to be is the perception among traders and speculators that a clash between Iran and the United States�especially a prolonged military confrontation�is likely. Khelil recently observed that oil should be trading at about $70 per barrel, rather than the significantly higher prices we�ve seen in the last several months. |
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Iranian energy flowing westward to European markets would balance Russian influence�not remove it altogether�but would guarantee that the Kremlin�s ability to wield a potential �energy weapon� would be lessened significantly.
And speaking of the Eurasian space, any fundamental reorientation of the region away from its traditional trade and economic links to Moscow can only occur if the Iranian �doorway� to central Asia and the Caucasus is unlocked and unbarred. Landlocked countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan would benefit from having high-speed land links to Iran�s Persian Gulf ports. |
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Iran has presidential elections scheduled for 2009. It may be useful to recall that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected in 2005, not on a platform of developing nuclear weapons or destroying Israel, but instead by promising to tackle corruption and deliver economic growth. If, prior to the forthcoming election, the United States and its European allies laid out a very specific and detailed program that included actual projects and the projected benefits to the Iranian people�rather than more generic assurances about goodwill and some small nickel-and-dime measures�not simply Iranian voters but Iranian elites might be more energized to bring about change. It bears recalling that in the 2005 elections, in the initial round, more votes were cast for reform- and engagement-minded candidates than for Ahmadinejad; even within the circumscribed limits of the Iranian political system there is room for a change of course. |
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The United States is not in a position to �dually contain� both Iran and a resurgent Russia�if Washington decides that Moscow must be contained rather than engaged. Indeed, U.S. containment of Iran has been a factor in Russia�s own economic revival by keeping energy prices high and certain reserves of energy off the market. Containment has also led to the resurgence of Russia�s influence in Eurasia�by keeping the old Soviet-era links alive and well. The current approach to Iran is unlikely to succeed with only the support of the United States and Europe. As we have seen, Iran can �limp along� based on its trading links with Asia�especially India and China. |
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Gopher

Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 8:54 am Post subject: |
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No. We are not interested in "cooperating" with the Iranian regime while it pursues nuclear weapons, the destruction or Israel, hosts Holocaust-denial conferences, etc.
Such one-way diplomacy is despicable, reminiscent of "appeasement." What "cooperation," for example, does the Iranian regime offer us in such a scheme as this? "Iranian energy flowing westward?" Sounds like a kind of blackmail to me. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 9:18 am Post subject: |
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I agree.
A bilateral agreement with Iran will allow the U.S. more leverage should Iran fail in its committments. The U.S. should pursue an open-minded agreement with Iran and have secret arrangements to help the U.S. withdraw from Iraq. Should Iran fundamentally violate the agreement by pursuing nuclear weapons, the U.S. can claim a breach of the provisions and strike.
The U.S. needs time and a bilateral treaty offers that. Iranian violations of a bilateral agreement also provide the U.S an effective and credible casus belli for limited retaliatory strikes. Its time for the U.S. to start working within the international system in a clever manner, rather than stupidly and stubborningly refusing to take part, as Stalin did vis-a-vis the U.N. in the early 50s. |
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Gopher

Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 10:04 am Post subject: |
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Kuros: the last time we made a serious, good-faith effort to normalize relations with the Iranian govt, it blackmailed us. Some people in advising and policymaking circles remember this from first-hand experience. And are you prepared to accept Tehran's continued backing of Hezbollah and its activities?
This situation is not analogous to the early Cold War, either. Tehran is not a superpower, for one. Further, when I ask who is showing stubbornness here, the American govt is not the first party that comes to mind. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994
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Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:07 pm Post subject: |
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'Appeasement' is one of those words that is thrown around in order to cut off discussion. A constructive word that means the same thing is 'compromise'.
It is always worth pursuing negotiations for fair settlements with other countries, and it is always worth being seen by the world to be attempting to find non-military solutions to international problems.
I for one am sick of unilateral actions in that region. To hell with bilateral agreements. Any talks with Iran should be through NATO. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:12 pm Post subject: |
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Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
I for one am sick of unilateral actions in that region. To hell with bilateral agreements. Any talks with Iran should be through NATO. |
Right. As soon as those other NATO members fulfill their Afghanistan committments, I'll agree to that.
In the meantime, if the Iranian Revolutionary Government wants to finally have a counter-revolution that recognizes how wrong and foolish their hostage takings were, they can sign a bilateral agreement. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee

Joined: 25 May 2003
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Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:27 pm Post subject: Re: National Interest: Make a Deal with Iran |
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mithridates wrote: |
I agree, and I would also add that Turkey is cooperating a lot on energy deals with Iran anyway so there's no way to contain them in the first place.
http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=19660
Quote: |
OPEC president Chakib Khelil has repeatedly noted that one of the factors keeping oil prices higher than they ought to be is the perception among traders and speculators that a clash between Iran and the United States�especially a prolonged military confrontation�is likely. Khelil recently observed that oil should be trading at about $70 per barrel, rather than the significantly higher prices we�ve seen in the last several months. |
Quote: |
Iranian energy flowing westward to European markets would balance Russian influence�not remove it altogether�but would guarantee that the Kremlin�s ability to wield a potential �energy weapon� would be lessened significantly.
And speaking of the Eurasian space, any fundamental reorientation of the region away from its traditional trade and economic links to Moscow can only occur if the Iranian �doorway� to central Asia and the Caucasus is unlocked and unbarred. Landlocked countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan would benefit from having high-speed land links to Iran�s Persian Gulf ports. |
Quote: |
Iran has presidential elections scheduled for 2009. It may be useful to recall that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected in 2005, not on a platform of developing nuclear weapons or destroying Israel, but instead by promising to tackle corruption and deliver economic growth. If, prior to the forthcoming election, the United States and its European allies laid out a very specific and detailed program that included actual projects and the projected benefits to the Iranian people�rather than more generic assurances about goodwill and some small nickel-and-dime measures�not simply Iranian voters but Iranian elites might be more energized to bring about change. It bears recalling that in the 2005 elections, in the initial round, more votes were cast for reform- and engagement-minded candidates than for Ahmadinejad; even within the circumscribed limits of the Iranian political system there is room for a change of course. |
Quote: |
The United States is not in a position to �dually contain� both Iran and a resurgent Russia�if Washington decides that Moscow must be contained rather than engaged. Indeed, U.S. containment of Iran has been a factor in Russia�s own economic revival by keeping energy prices high and certain reserves of energy off the market. Containment has also led to the resurgence of Russia�s influence in Eurasia�by keeping the old Soviet-era links alive and well. The current approach to Iran is unlikely to succeed with only the support of the United States and Europe. As we have seen, Iran can �limp along� based on its trading links with Asia�especially India and China. |
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Is there any evidence that Iran wants to make a deal?
What would be Iran's part of the deal?
Does Iran keep deals?
Remember Iran "promised" to lift the death sentance on Rushdie. Is the death sentance off of him or is it still on? |
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Gopher

Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:35 pm Post subject: |
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Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
'Appeasement' is one of those words that is thrown around in order to cut off discussion. A constructive word that means the same thing is 'compromise'. |
Very well. What kinds of compromises do you really see the Iranian govt offerring and honestly following through with, with respect to an Iranian-American agreement in the Middle East?
I see none. But you may see something else. I wonder what you see and why you assign credibility/feasibility to it. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994
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Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:49 pm Post subject: |
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We'd have to actually sit down with them in the same room to find out the answer to that. Even then, we'd have to go in the room ready to make deals, not dictate terms. Their domestic economy is in a shambles; that should give us someplace to start. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee

Joined: 25 May 2003
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Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:55 pm Post subject: |
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Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
We'd have to actually sit down with them in the same room to find out the answer to that. Even then, we'd have to go in the room ready to make deals, not dictate terms. Their domestic economy is in a shambles; that should give us someplace to start. |
Yata Iran is led by someone named Ayatollah Ali Khamani.
Iran's #2 is Amadinajad.
If one knows who they are they will see why it would be so difficult to make a deal.
When Clinton was president he wanted to talk to Iran and Iran wasn't interested. |
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Gopher

Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 2:00 pm Post subject: |
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Ya-ta Boy: why should we be prepared to sit down at a table, with the attitude of making deals and not dictating terms, with an opponent who does not want to make deals but rather dictate terms?
Point of comparison: the Shanghai Communique. Beijing and Washington shared an overriding common interest: anti-Soviet foreign policy. Mao initiated contact, subtly, by inviting Edgar Snow, an American journalist, to stand by his side in an official photograph. Nixon and Kissinger reciprocated: we would like to explore a reconciliation with you. Mao responded: remove your naval patrols from the Taiwanese Straits, and demonstrate your seriousness of purpose. Nixon complied. Kissinger went to China. Once in China, Mao compromised, stating he was in no hurry to force the Americans to abandon Taiwan after all, that the thing could be worked out much later, etc., etc. That was a significant thing for the Chinese to give, especially at that time.
In any case, what kinds of signals have Tehran been sending the Americans (and their allies in the Middle East) recently to lead you to believe that it would be worthwhile and productive to negotiate with them. "Their domestic economy" is not a good starter. Consider the decades-old Castro's Cuba.
In any case, if Tehran wants to negotiate, reach compromises, reestablish relations with us, and move forward constructively, I would wholly support that -- including our giving at least as much as we take from such an agreement. I just do not see Tehran as being ready for these kinds of adult conversations at this point. In fact, last I heard, I'madinnerjacket was not even prepared to accept that homosexuals existed within Iranian society. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994
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Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 4:33 pm Post subject: |
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Are we so morally corrupt that all we have to offer this world is the school yard bully?
The rulers of Iran are abysmal administrators. Their economy is a mess. A major reason for the bellicose talk about Israel is to divert public attention from the mess at home. How about offering them an alternative? Economic development at home is often more important than foreign crusades...just look at the US public this year. |
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Tjames426
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
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Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 5:31 pm Post subject: |
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Changes are going to come in Iran. Major Iranian Islamic leaders are complaining against the present political leadership.
The common Iranian people do not want war with anyone.
They are tired of the morality police who think women wearing proper dresses and headscarves is more important than jobs, and enough food to eat.
The US has already struck a deal with Iran. It is like this:
Make nukes and Israel will come and destroy them.
Send Iranian terrorists into Iraq, we will kill them.
Attack ships in the Strait, we will destroy your so called Navy.
Not much more to say. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee

Joined: 25 May 2003
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Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 5:37 pm Post subject: |
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Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
Are we so morally corrupt that all we have to offer this world is the school yard bully?
The rulers of Iran are abysmal administrators. Their economy is a mess. A major reason for the bellicose talk about Israel is to divert public attention from the mess at home. How about offering them an alternative? Economic development at home is often more important than foreign crusades...just look at the US public this year. |
that would make sense if Iran didn't have the leader it did. |
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Gopher

Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 7:43 pm Post subject: |
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Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
Are we so morally corrupt that all we have to offer this world is the school yard bully? |
Since when does requiring that a negotiating partner actually adopt an open-minded negotiating posture make one "a school-yard bully?" |
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