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Underwaterbob
Joined: 08 Jan 2005
Location: In Cognito
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 Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Sorry, this is completely off-topic but I'm mesmerized by mises avatar. Did Fox News seriously run that? |
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OneWayTraffic
Joined: 14 Mar 2005
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| Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 5:07 am Post subject: |
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| mindmetoo wrote: |
| Tiger Beer wrote: |
| I was under the impression it was still just getting started. I think we have a LONG WAYS to go before it straightens itself out. |
I predict in 6 months we won't be talking about this. I'm on the record. |
Well most experts would disagree. The smartest of them are loath to make predictions about how long this will all last, expect in generalistic terms. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 11:25 am Post subject: |
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From the mouth of the horse, or more specifically, from San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen:
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| Regrettably, the nation's economy has been in rough waters for over a year now. Last summer, a precipitous slide in house prices triggered a crisis in financial markets and a credit crunch that is making it hard for consumers and some firms to borrow. These developments are ongoing and perhaps deepening, as banks and other financial intermediaries are continuing to delever by scaling back their balance sheets and shrinking their lending activity. Indeed, some sources of funding have completely dried up. In the face of these developments, firms and consumers have also been pulling back, causing unemployment to rise. |
http://www.frbsf.org/news/speeches/2008/0904.html
More scary tidbits inside the speech. |
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jim_we
Joined: 06 May 2004
Location: Korea
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 3:30 am Post subject: Re: Has the sub prime crisis run its course? |
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It's barely started! And going to get BAD!
| mindmetoo wrote: |
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080828/bs_nm/usa_economy_dc_3
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew at a solid 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, much stronger than first thought, but many economists expect growth to flag as the year progresses.
The U.S. Commerce Department on Thursday said consumer spending and net exports were more robust that initially estimated and that inventories fell less sharply. A month ago, it had said U.S. Gross Domestic Product had expanded at a 1.9 percent rate in the quarter. |
Despite dire predictions by some here that sub prime was going to bring the banking system crashing down and usher in a new ice age or something, the USA economy grew. Not bad. As I've predicted and continue to predict, sub prime is the S&L crisis of this day. Sucks, people lost a lot of money, but the free wheeling US economy is big enough to take the hit, it adjusts based on market signals, and things march right along. |
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OneWayTraffic
Joined: 14 Mar 2005
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 4:36 am Post subject: |
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| Lehmann brothers is in dire straits right now. |
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OneWayTraffic
Joined: 14 Mar 2005
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| Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 2:58 am Post subject: |
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| And there she goes. This will take far longer than 6 months to shake out. |
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Gatsby
Joined: 09 Feb 2007
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| Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 3:29 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| Lehmann brothers is in dire straits right now. |
Congratulations, OneWayTraffic! You have won the "Understatement of the Week" award!
Not to mention the "Prognosticator of the Week" award.
To answer the OP's question, Has the sub prime crisis run its course?
How long does it take to fill up a black hole? |
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OneWayTraffic
Joined: 14 Mar 2005
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| Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:09 am Post subject: |
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Gatsby: Anything useful to add? Some market commentary perhaps?
I think that this will blow over. But it will take a year for most people to fully track the damage and then a few years recovering. But like the busts of 2000,1987, 1974 and so on; there will be permanent effects.
If nothing else we will see laws enacted outlawing this kind of foolishness. Not that that will stop a new generation of people from inventing a totally new kind of foolishness. |
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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 am Post subject: |
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Before anything gets better the real estate market is going to have to find a bottom; everything seems to be tied to real estate. Once prices are low enough, investors will rush to buy these properties at fire sale prices and seek more credit. This will, hopefully, lead to a credit expansion as real estate assets begin appreciating again. How long this will take is anyone's guess, but it seems like it's going to be at least a long while.
The FOMC is also planning another rate cut later this month. I've got no idea why the Fed thinks we can just print our way out of this mess. This is a credit/market problem and not a monetary/liquidity problem. |
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OneWayTraffic
Joined: 14 Mar 2005
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| Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 8:11 pm Post subject: |
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And another 80 Billion down the drain. At least the government gets a majority stake in a very good and solid company. (Except for that whole debt insurance thing-AIG is well respected and most of its divisions are sound.)
Next? |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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